Almost half of Cyprus households could be at risk of poverty by the end of the century, as increasingly severe heatwaves and droughts threaten incomes and deepen inequality, according to a new study published in the academic journal Global Environmental Change.
The research, emphasised by the Cyprus Institute (CyI) on Thursday, found that the proportion of households at risk of poverty could rise from 14.9 per cent to 49 per cent if global temperatures increase by 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and Cyprus fails to introduce substantial climate adaptation measures.
Even if global warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, the proportion could still reach approximately 25 per cent, highlighting the economic consequences of rising temperatures even under a less severe climate scenario.
The findings are particularly concerning for Cyprus, where income losses caused by heatwaves and droughts have already exceeded the European average.
Over the past two decades, such events have reduced incomes by an estimated 5 per cent across the population, with losses reaching 9 per cent among the poorest households.
Across Europe, meanwhile, lower-income households have lost 2.7 percentage points more of their income than wealthier households, partly because they are more likely to live in areas exposed to extreme weather and lack the financial resources to improve energy efficiency or protect their properties.
The situation in Cyprus is expected to worsen as extreme heat increasingly coincides with prolonged droughts, placing further pressure on household finances and economic growth.
Indeed, the study warns that climate-related losses could reach 54 per cent of projected future income levels in Cyprus, approximately twice the European average, potentially offsetting much of the country’s anticipated income growth.
Explaining the findings, the study’s lead author, Jessie Schleypen, a PhD candidate at Humboldt University of Berlin, said that “Compound heat and drought events have a larger negative impact than when the two events happen independent of each other.”
She explained that the poorest families are particularly vulnerable because they face greater difficulties accessing essential services and securing the financial resources needed to recover from extreme weather.
“We find evidence of this in the impact on household incomes, where the poorest households, who are faced with unequal costs in obtaining basic services and financial resources to cope and recover, are affected the most,” she said, before warning that repeated financial setbacks could have lasting consequences.
“With every income shock, poor households have fewer resources and fewer options to avoid future impacts, thereby turning short-term impacts into long-term effects and pushing them into a poverty trap,” she added.
Against this background, the researchers emphasised the importance of financial and technical support for vulnerable households, alongside investments in more energy-efficient buildings and infrastructure capable of withstanding increasingly extreme weather conditions.
Cyprus Institute professor Theodoros Zachariadis, who participated in the wider research project but was not involved in the specific study, stressed the urgency of protecting lower-income households, warning that “It is shocking how much climate change can harm the most vulnerable people in our societies if we do not act already now.”
He called for practical measures to improve living conditions, adding that “Policymakers must apply the available knowledge to ensure climate-resilient buildings and neighbourhoods for the most vulnerable households.”
Zachariadis also highlighted the financial benefits of early intervention, arguing that adaptation measures would cost considerably less than the economic damage they could prevent.
“The costs of such measures are manageable and will protect the Cypriot economy by helping it avoid much higher costs from climate change impacts,” he said, concluding that “Climate policies lead to a more resilient and equitable society and are good economic and social policy for Cyprus.”