The long-anticipated matchup between BYU and Notre Dame has finally arrived. This Notre Dame team is supremely talented and, as Kalani Sitake would say, BYU will have to be at its best to pull off the home upset. In this article, we're laying out the blueprint for a BYU upset over the Fighting Irish.
Win, or at least neutralize, the turnover margin
Through six games, Notre Dame is +13 in turnover margin which ranks 2nd nationally. The Fighting Irish have already forced 14 turnovers and they lead college football in forced fumbles. Turnovers and short fields are a major reason why Notre Dame has won every game by double digits.
Notre Dame has had at least one defensive touchdown or a touchdown drive that started on the opponent's side of the field in every game. In the first quarter against Rice, Notre Dame scored 21 points with less than 100 yards of total offense. Notre Dame is fast and physical and they will look to take the ball away at every opportunity.
BYU cannot afford to give Notre Dame short fields. If the Cougars get sloppy with the football, this game could turn into a blowout in a hurry. Remember, BYU was competitive with Texas Tech last season until the turnovers turned both games into blowouts.
Fortunately for BYU, Bear Bachmeier has protected the football at a high level and BYU is +4 in the turnover margin this season. CJ Carr only has one interception this season, but he will occassionally take chances with the football. He has four turnover-worthy throws so far and only on interception. Odds are, he will be the ball at risk at least once. When he does, the Cougars need to pounce on the opportunity to get a takeaway.
Getting even one short field and forcing Notre Dame to drive the length of the field throughout the night would really increase BYU's chances to pull off the upset.
Use the size of the pass-catchers
On offense, BYU isn't going to beat Notre Dame with speed. The Fighting Irish have some of the best team speed, particularly on defense, in college football. But BYU came into the season with probably the largest group of pass-catchers in the country. BYU wide receivers Kyler Kasper and Jojo Phillips are 6'6 and 6'5, respectively.
BYU tight ends Walker Lyons and Roger Saleapaga are both 6'4. Lyons is 245 pounds and Saleapaga is 235 pounds.
On a 3rd & 6 against Iowa State, Bear Bachmeier threw a back-shoulder fade to Kyler Kasper for a first down. Those are the kinds of throws that Bachmeier will need to make against the Fighting Irish. BYU will have a size advantage. It's up to Bear Bachmeier to locate the ball where only his receivers can catch it, then the receivers have to come up with contested catches.
In games against elite defenses, there will be times where you have to beat them with elite ball placement. Bear Bachmeier was not equipped to beat Texas Tech with downfield shots last season. He has been much more proficient throwing downfield as a sophomore. It's going to be tough sledding in this game for the BYU offense, especially without LJ Martin. The Cougars are going to need some chunk-yardage plays to pull off the upset.
Make Notre Dame one-dimensional on offense
Notre Dame didn't run the football well in the first three weeks of the season. They have found more success the last three weeks thanks to the emergence of freshman running back Jonaz Walton. Walton had 181 yards on 13 carries against Stanford, including a 97-yard touchdown run. Going into this game, Notre Dame ranks 37th in rushing yards per game and 39th in rushing yards per attempt.
If BYU is going to win this game, it needs to make Notre Dame one-dimensional and limit the Fighting Irish rushing attack.
There is reason to believe BYU can do just that. The three teams that struggled to stop Notre Dame's rushing attack rank? Stanford ranks 126th in rushing yards allowed per game. Purdue and North Carolina are ranked 94th and 88th in rushing yards allowed per game, respectively.
The three teams that limited Notre Dame's rushing attack to less than four yards per carry were Wisconsin (35th), Michigan State (73rd), and Rice (123rd). BYU's run defense ranks 10th nationally. This is the best run defense Notre Dame will have faced by a wide margin. BYU will be able to generate stops if they make the Fighting Irish one-dimensional.
Take advantage of scoring opportunities
Going into the Iowa State game, BYU had scored 13 touchdowns in 13 red zone opportunities. Against the Cyclones, BYU scored two touchdowns in five red zone tries. What changed? The Cougars were without LJ Martin. Martin's absence completely changed the complexion of BYU's offense, particularly in the red zone.
If BYU is going to beat Notre Dame, it will need to capitalize on scoring opportunities like they did in every other game. That's much easier said than done against this Notre Dame defense. You're not going to beat Notre Dame with field goals, so manufacturing red zone touchdowns is going to be key. Aaron Roderick will have to do his best work in the red zone.
This is where BYU may need to use its size advantage. Fades are usually low-percentage throws that we wouldn't recommend in the red zone. But against a ND defense that is very good against the run? You may need to complete one or two fades to finish drives. Kyler Kasper should be the primary target with his 6'6 frame. Kasper is not only tall, but he also uses his frame well to box out defenders.
5. Pressure CJ Carr without blitzing or do a very good job of disguising it
CJ Carr is one of the best quarterbacks in college football against the blitz. If you blitz Carr and don't get home right away, he will make you pay. If you blitz and don't disguise it well enough, he will make you pay. To win this game, the Cougars have to make CJ Carr uncomfortable.
To the credit of Kelly Poppinga, BYU has been very good at disguising blitzes and making quarterbacks unsure of what will happen after the snap. If and when BYU blitzes, it needs to disguise what it's doing.
BYU's pass rush has been getting better and better as the season progresses. This will be the biggest test of the season for the BYU defensive line. The Cougars need to make CJ Carr uncomfortable in the pocket, preferably without blitzing. That doesn't necessarily mean BYU needs to generate three or four sacks, although that wouldn't hurt. It means BYU can't allow Carr to operate from a clean pocket in key moments.
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