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Inside Washington
Angie Nixon has defied expectations before. In the Democratic primary for Florida’s Senate race in August, her opponent Alex Vindman campaigned as though he was already running against Republican Senator Ashley Moody in the general election. Then Nixon beat Vindman by almost 12 points.
Now Nixon faces tough odds. National Democrats have been reluctant to invest in her campaign, given that Florida is unlikely to flip. But experts say that the former state House representative shouldn’t be counted out yet.
Some Democrats evidently agree. This Wednesday, Senator Chris Murphy will swing through Florida on a national tour to help Senate candidates. Murphy and Nixon will hold a town hall and go door-knocking together. Senator Bernie Sanders also plans to campaign with Nixon this Friday; he has also sent $250,000 to Nixon’s campaign. Nixon is running on a familiar progressive platform: universal health care, free childcare, and affordable housing.
“For her to win, she needs a blue tsunami, not just a wave,” explained Aubrey Jewett, a professor of political science at the University of Central Florida. “And also perhaps what I’ve been seeing described as a Republican undertow,” he added, describing the idea that Republican voters would stay home or even vote blue.
Despite Nixon’s evident skills as a candidate, the raw numbers in Florida put her at a disadvantage. In the state, there are 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and many are older and therefore more likely to turn out and vote. Polls show Moody ahead of Nixon, though some are closer than others. As Jewett said, she would need the Democratic base to turn out in massive numbers, Republicans to stay home, and no party affiliation voters to swing blue. That’s no easy task, but President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and the high cost of living have put Nixon in a stronger position than Democratic candidates before her. What’s more: As a Black woman, she could be well-positioned to energize both Black voters and women voters across the state.
“When she first announced that she was running for the U.S. Senate, because so few Black candidates have won U.S. Senate races, even fewer Black women, people were automatically thinking it was a really foolish thing to do,” said Sharon Wright Austin, a professor of political science at the University of Florida who studies African American political power. During the primary, “people were saying, ‘There’s no way she can win.’ But she won.”
While the Black vote would offer Nixon an important boost, she hasn’t been exclusively focusing on those voters, Austin explained. “She also is going to communities where people don’t vote for Democrats and typically don’t see Black candidates, don’t vote for Black candidates,” she said. “She’s reaching out to every voter.”
Nixon has been touring the state and relying on earned media, social media, and text messaging to reach voters. So far, she’s been unable to compete with Moody on the airwaves and is at a major cash disadvantage. As of the end of July, Moody had received more than $11 million to Nixon’s $975,000. Late last month, Moody released an ad calling Nixon a socialist and highlighting her connections to the Democratic Socialists of America, which Nixon joined in June. “We’re being bombarded with these negative campaign ads, and she’s not able to counter them because she simply doesn’t have the money,” Austin said.
Both Nixon and the Democratic nominee for governor, David Jolly, have asked for more support from national Democratic groups, but they haven’t received it so far. On October 1, Nixon said that she spoke to Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, who run the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and hinted that more money could be coming. But so far, national Democrats have prioritized other races. “Florida Democrats have gotten spoiled, because when we were purple, the national money always flowed in here,” said Susan MacManus, a professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida. “And then suddenly it wasn’t, and it dried up.”
When asked if she’s received enough support from the national party, Nixon wrote in a statement: “We can always use more resources to knock on more doors and combat the millions of dollars in dark money flooding the airwaves to protect unelected, incompetent extremists like Ashley Moody. But as I’ve said: ‘We are all we got,’ and I won’t ever trade our campaign’s grassroots independence for anyone’s approval.”
Though the cards are stacked against her, experts say that Nixon’s talents as a candidate and the national environment could—potentially—be enough for an upset. “She’s definitely a fighter,” McManus said. “There’s no question. She’s not backing off of anything.”
—Emma Janssen
Outside Washington
A Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota poll released on Monday shows Democratic Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan with a small four-point lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota. Flanagan’s numbers, Walker Orenstein writes, derive from “huge margins in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, reflecting an electorate that is unhappy with President Donald Trump.” (Minneapolis lies in Hennepin County, while St. Paul is part of Ramsey County.) But—troublingly for Democrats, who need every seat they can get if they want to flip the Senate—the poll also “vindicates Tafoya’s belief that she is bucking national trends and locked in a tight race in left-leaning Minnesota. Republicans have a chance here,” Orenstein writes.
Pennsylvania announced its sixth measles-associated death this year on Monday, days after the CDC confirmed that the United States has now seen more than 4,000 cases this year across 45 states. Health and Human Services head RFK Jr., note Walker Bragman and Melody Schreiber in a Guardian piece reviewing anti-vaccine activists’ response to the outbreak, has repeatedly “dispute[d] the rising death toll,” even accusing Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro of “misinformation.” Last week, New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a statewide emergency over rising measles cases. Politico notes that Hochul and Shapiro have approached measles outbreaks in their states very differently, with Hochul quickly requesting federal help while “Shapiro attempted to go it alone for months.” Shapiro has also not declared a disaster yet. The total number of U.S. cases this year is now almost double the total number for last year, which was seen as a stunning spike at the time.
—Heather Souvaine Horn
The Ideas Factory
On Tuesday at 11 a.m., the Center for Universal Education at Brookings will host an online conversation with Emily Markovich Morris, Richaa Hoysala, Cecilia De La Paz, Hayin Kimner, David Jacobson, and Tyler Samstag about the impact of community partners on schooling systems. “From providing meals and quality after-school care opportunities,” the event summary states, “to promoting mental and physical health, civic leadership, creativity and exploration, these organizations help strengthen the broader ecosystems in which children learn and thrive.”
On Tuesday at 1 p.m., the Bipartisan Policy Center will host an online conversation about the possible use of AI to speed home building, for example, via “zoning analysis, architectural design, jobsite monitoring, and procurement.” Could AI, in other words, help address the affordable housing crisis? Speakers will include Sara C. Bronin, Vikas Enti, Jenny Song, and Laura Hausman.
—Heather Souvaine Horn
In Closing
Political Trivia Question of the Day
Donald Trump wants to turn the public East Potomac Golf Course into a swanky private club. What president, speaking in favor of public golf courses in the District of Columbia, said: “I favor a freer use of public parks by the people than we have had in the past. They should be used for tennis, baseball, skating, golf and like games ... I think all our parks should be opened for golf unless there is some specific objection in public needs”?
(Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)
—Michael Tomasky