Türkiye’s demographic anxiety deepens

Over the past two decades, Türkiye has undergone a silent revolution in social policy. A welfare state has been built, from health care to social security, and from social assistance to disability care. The Gini coefficient improved from 0.44 in 2002 to 0.410 in 2025, extreme poverty fell from 13% to 4.5%, relative poverty dropped to 13.0% in 2025 (the lowest since 2005), and social security coverage expanded from 67% to over 99%.

Yet, the sustainability of these gains is now being tested by a historic demographic transformation. The latest data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reveal that the country is rapidly losing its young population advantage, stands on the threshold of an aging crisis and consequently, demographic anxiety about the Turkish economy is deepening.

Population growth stalls

According to the latest data from TurkStat, Türkiye’s population, which stood at 85.5 million in the second quarter of 2024, reached 86.3 million by the second quarter of 2026. The annual growth rate has fallen to around 1 per thousand, the lowest in the history of the Republic of Türkiye. In 2023, the population increased by only 92,000, down from over 600,000 the previous year. This decline is the direct consequence of falling fertility.

The total fertility rate has dropped to 1.42 children per woman. The world average is 2.24. The replacement level, which is the rate needed to sustain a population, is 2.1. We are far below it. In 2017, the rate was 2.1; by 2023 it had fallen to 1.51, and now to 1.42. Türkiye can no longer reproduce its own population. This is not merely a statistic; it is a strategic rupture in economic growth, social security and geopolitical strength.

Child population shrinks

The 0-4 age group, which numbered 5.22 million in the second quarter of 2024, fell to 4.77 million by the second quarter of 2026, which is a decline of 457,000 children in just two years. The share of children in the population dropped from 21.1% to 20.5%. The world average is 29.3%. Türkiye now ranks among countries with the lowest child ratios, alongside Italy, Spain, Portugal, Japan and South Korea.

Meanwhile, the elderly population is exploding. The 65 population rose from 8.92 million to 9.79 million, which is an increase of 867,000 in two years. The elderly share climbed from 10.4% to 11.3%. The world average is 10.4%, and Türkiye is now above it. This shows that the aging crisis is no longer a projection. Soon, primary schools will be closed down due to insufficient enrollment, and the buildings will be needed for elderly care.

In addition, the decline of the working-age population (15-64) from 68.5% to 68.1% is an alarm for the economy. The dependency ratio is rising. This will further destabilize the active-passive balance of the social security system and economic potential.

Urbanization strikes fertility

TurkStat’s 2026 World Population Day bulletin lays bare the urban-rural fertility gap: rural areas record 1.75 children per woman, medium-density urban areas fall to 1.53 and high-density urban areas plummet to just 1.33.

The more urbanized a region, the lower its fertility. And 93% of Türkiye’s population lives in cities. In Istanbul, population density reaches 3,013 people per square kilometer. Combined with the housing crisis, cost of living and job insecurity, families are postponing or forgoing children. Thus, metropolitan areas would be the hardest hit by the aging crisis.

Age-specific fertility rates confirm this: in 2001, the highest fertility was in the 20-24 age group; by 2025, it had shifted to 25-29. Women are marrying later, having children later and having fewer of them. Greater access to education and employment is positive, but delayed childbearing can contribute to lower overall fertility.

Life expectancy rises

Life expectancy is 80.7 years for women and 75.5 for men, above the world average, reflecting health care improvements. But as the elderly population grows, so does long-term care demand. In Türkiye, 78.7% of the 65 population has at least one chronic disease, while 20.4% live alone. Informal family care remains widespread but is rapidly eroding. Urbanization, the shift to nuclear families, and rising female employment are weakening the traditional care arrangements.

Long-term care insurance is imperative. Türkiye has a two-decade window. If established now, it would be a net fund collector for 10 years and begin significant spending only after 20, easing the social security burden. If delayed, care services will collapse when the aging crisis hits.

What must be done?

Türkiye’s demographic transformation is inevitable, but being caught unprepared would be catastrophic. The necessary steps are clear.

First, Reform 2.0 – the second phase of the 2008 Social Security Reform – is now unavoidable. With informal employment exceeding 25% and the premium collection rate at 85%, audit reform, not tax amnesties, is essential for effective collection.

Second, long-term care insurance must be established immediately, on a pay-as-you-go, premium-based model covering the entire society.

Third, pronatalist policies must go beyond birth incentives: housing, child care, flexible work, female employment and economic stability are prerequisites, because fertility is directly linked to economic security.

Fourth, migration must be managed strategically. A Ministry of Migration should be established to attract skilled migrants, and reverse brain drain should be encouraged. Finally, investing in youth through education, employment and research and development is as important as raising fertility itself.

Türkiye can sustain its development by preserving its young population. But the latest data expose that this window is closing rapidly. The demographic anxiety of Türkiye is not merely a social policy issue. It is a matter of economic independence, geopolitical power and social welfare. Türkiye has roughly a decade to act. If used wisely, aging can be managed; if not, the welfare state will collapse. It is not too late to decide, but time is running out.