Virginia football is back in action tonight. Here is a complete preview:
Kickoff: Friday, Oct. 23, 7 p.m. ET, Scott Stadium (ESPN)
Duke is undefeated when Nate Sheppard at running back gets to 100 rushing yards. When he hasn’t this season, the Blue Devils are on a 0-2 losing streak.
Georgia Tech kept him to 99 yards on Oct. 10 and got a touchdown with 54 seconds left to win 28-25. Last Saturday, North Carolina held him to 77 yards in a 24-20 win in Durham. Those are the only two losses for a Duke team that won its first four games.
That would seem to make Virginia’s job pretty clear Friday night, but I don’t think it’s that simple. He was playing through an ankle injury at Georgia Tech and was a game-time decision against UNC, and he still made huge plays in both games. Between the two, he had 176 rushing yards on 47 carries and another 189 yards on 18 catches.
Tony Elliott had high praise for him on Tuesday.
“Definitely by far the best back that we’ve seen all year and probably the best one in the league,” Elliott said.
That’s not great news for Virginia, which hasn’t been stopping the run lately. Since the season opener, every Power Four team UVA has played has had at least one player run for 100 yards.
The Cavaliers (4-3, 2-2 ACC) come in as a slight favorite at home over a Duke team (4-2, 1-2 ACC) that has lost its last two games by a combined seven points. The question now isn’t really whether the Cavaliers can stop Sheppard. It’s whether the Hoos’ offense, which hasn’t gotten to 300 yards in three weeks, can score enough to take some pressure off the defense.
Why this game really matters
At a 4-3 record, Virginia needs just two more wins to reach a bowl game. After Friday, it plays at No. 17 Wake Forest, hosts Cal and North Carolina at Scott, and finishes at Virginia Tech. ESPN’s FPI gives the Cavaliers less than a 50 percent chance in three of those four games and projects them to finish 5-7.
That would be a tough fall for a team that went 11-3 last season and was ranked sixth in the ACC preseason poll. Lose Friday, and Virginia is 4-4 with a trip to Winston-Salem.
For what it’s worth, history favors Virginia. The Cavaliers have won nine of the last 11 meetings, and Duke hasn’t won in Charlottesville since 2013.
Virginia beat the Blue Devils 34-17 in Durham last November. Three weeks later, Duke won the ACC Championship Game rematch 27-20 in overtime when Luke Mergott intercepted a double pass on the Cavaliers’ first snap of overtime.
Most of that Duke team is gone. Quarterback Darian Mensah is at Miami, and 10 Blue Devils have made their first career starts this season, seven of them on defense. Elliott said Duke has “a lot of new faces, new numbers, new guys to get adjusted to, but structurally they’re very similar.”
Sheppard is more than a runner
Sheppard leads FBS with 179.8 all-purpose yards per game and ranks third with 136.7 rushing yards per game. He has 820 rushing yards, 28 catches for 259 yards, and 12 total touchdowns in six games. His 26 runs of 10 or more yards are second nationally.
The receiving part is what really jumped out to me. During Duke’s 4-0 start, quarterback Walker Eget never threw more than 26 passes in a game. He threw 41 at Georgia Tech and 38 against North Carolina, and Sheppard led Duke in catches both times.
“He’s really, really making an impact in the passing game,” Elliott said.
That puts Virginia’s linebackers in a tough spot. Kam Robinson and Maddox Marcellus should see a lot of Sheppard and tight end Jeremiah Hasley, Duke’s second-leading receiver with 21 catches for 250 yards.
On the ground, Virginia is allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. West Virginia had two 100-yard rushers (Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook). Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels ran for 136 yards and five touchdowns. Syracuse and SMU each had a back go over 100. Three of those four teams beat Virginia.
Elliott’s fix is simple. “We got to tackle and just get guys on the ground, right?” he said.
Sheppard wasn’t on this week’s availability report, but his ankle is still worth watching before kickoff.
A thin Cavalier secondary
The timing isn’t great for Virginia’s secondary, either. Free safety Ethan Minter, who had started six of seven games, and safety Corey Costner were ruled out on this week’s availability report. Brandyn Hillman, who has a team-high three interceptions, is doubtful after missing the SMU game. Cornerback Omillio Agard is out for the season.
If Hillman can’t go, Montino Williams would make his third straight start, and Christian Ellis or Keke Adams could step in for Minter.
Eget hasn’t been asked to win games with his arm. He has 1,229 passing yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions, and Elliott said he’s “not forcing bad balls down the field.” Still, if Virginia needs a safety to help against Sheppard, it’s asking that of a group that has been reshuffled almost every week.
Can Virginia's offense get to 300 yards?
Virginia gained 205 yards at Florida State, 282 against Syracuse and 258 at SMU. The Cavaliers have scored 16 second-half points in their three losses combined.
Beau Pribula threw 11 touchdown passes in the first four games. He has two in the three games since, and he has completed 52 percent of his passes over that stretch. Elliott isn’t putting that on his quarterback.
“I think it’s more been a combination of everything kind of around him than his decision making in particular,” he said, pointing to drops and protection. Virginia has allowed 21 sacks, 10 of them at Florida State.
Duke’s defense is hard to get right against. The Blue Devils allow 16.0 points per game (19th nationally) and 92.5 rushing yards per game (18th), at 3.2 yards per carry. Opponents convert 29.2 percent of their third downs, ninth in the country. Duke has given up 11 runs of 10 or more yards all season, tied for second-fewest in FBS, and only 27 points after halftime in six games.
Defensive tackle Preston Watson had a career-high eight tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and a sack against North Carolina. Linebacker Nick Morris Jr. is tied for the team lead with 33 tackles. Kevin O’Connor has three sacks in ACC games, and linebacker Bradley Gompers has three sacks, all on third down. That is a very bad sign for an offense that converts only 33 percent of its third downs.
Duke is shorthanded, though. Nose tackle David Anderson, who has four starts, is out. So is safety Andrew Pellicciotta, who has started all six games, shares the team lead in tackles with Morris and scored on a fumble return against UNC.
Virginia’s offense still has its injuries. Rico Flores Jr. is out again, and Kam Courtney, the team leader with 18 catches, is doubtful after missing SMU. Center Drake Metcalf left the SMU game with an injury but wasn’t on this week’s availability report. If he can’t go, Makilan Thomas, who replaced him at SMU, would move from right guard to center. Da’Shawn Martin, with a team-high five touchdown catches, is the most proven target left.
That leaves the run game. Jekail Middlebrook is averaging 56.6 yards per game, and Elliott said Tuesday that Virginia has “hit a bunch of singles and maybe double. We haven’t hit the home run yet.” Against Duke, singles might be the whole plan. Virginia has gone for it on fourth down 21 times, the second-most in the country, and converted 14. I’d expect more of that Friday.
Neither team gives much away
Duke has allowed two sacks all season, tied for the fewest in FBS. One came at Illinois. The other was an intentional grounding against North Carolina, in a game that center Matt Craycraft, a three-year starter, missed. He’s out again Friday.
Virginia’s pass rush finally showed up at SMU, with a season-high eight quarterback hurries. Matthew Fobbs-White had five of them, and he leads the team with seven tackles for loss. The Cavaliers have 14 sacks. Three on Friday would be more than Duke has allowed all year.
Neither offense turns it over much. Virginia and Duke have each lost three turnovers, tied for fifth-fewest nationally. Free possessions will be hard to come by, so field position counts. Daniel Sparks is averaging 50.3 yards per punt, second in the country.
Keys to a Virginia win
Tackle Sheppard the first time and avoid missed tackles. Elliott’s message Tuesday was about getting the ball carrier on the ground. Against a back with 26 runs of 10-plus yards, making Duke go four yards at a time is a win.
Know where he is on passing downs. Sheppard caught 18 passes in Duke’s last two games. Losing him in space on third down is how a one-score game gets away.
Stay out of third-and-long territory. Duke’s third-down defense ranks ninth nationally, and all three of Gompers’ sacks have come on third down.
Push at the end. Duke led inside the final five minutes of both its losses and gave up a go-ahead touchdown each time. Georgia Tech went 61 yards in 1:38, and North Carolina went 78 in 2:41. Virginia has outscored opponents 54-32 in the fourth quarter. Duke has been better than that overall (plus-31 in the fourth), so it cuts both ways, but a one-score game late isn’t a bad spot for the Hoos.
How to watch
TV: ESPN (Mike Monaco, Jordan Rodgers, Dana Boyle)
Time: 7 p.m. ET Friday
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
Radio: Virginia Sports Radio Network (John Freeman, Ahmad Hawkins, Jay James)
Odds
Virginia opened as a 2.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the total at 46.5. By midweek, FanDuel had the Cavaliers at -1.5, with the total up to 47.5. ESPN’s FPI sees a true toss-up and gives Virginia a 49.5 percent chance to win.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Score Prediction
Duke 24, Virginia 21.
Virginia has a real path here. It’s at home, at night, where it has won eight of its last nine. Duke is without its starting center, a starting nose tackle and a starting safety, and Sheppard was a game-time decision last week. If the run game keeps Duke’s offense on the sideline and the defense tackles better than it has for most of October, the Cavaliers can win a close one late.
I keep coming back to Virginia’s offense, though. It has been held under 300 yards three weeks in a row, and Duke’s defense does the things that have given the Cavaliers trouble. It stops the run, gets off the field on third down and tightens up after halftime. Without Flores, and probably without Courtney, I’m not sure where the big plays come from.
I think this is a one-score game most of the night. Sheppard gets his yards, some on the ground and plenty as a receiver. Then Duke does what it couldn’t do the last two weeks and holds a lead in the fourth quarter.
Virginia falls to 4-4, with a trip to No. 17 Wake Forest next.
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