Ever since the pandemic, grocery prices have been out of whack.
COVID-related lockdowns forced people to eat at home more often, and in April 2020 grocery prices took their biggest leap in decades, increasing 2.6% from the month earlier.
Then, in 2022, food prices began another upward swing as Americans with cash on hand returned to stores in large numbers and retailers struggled to meet the pent-up demand. The food system faced other shocks that year, including a severe avian flu outbreak and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Grocery prices rose 11.4% in 2022 alone.
That period of dramatic food inflation slowed down in 2023, though prices generally haven't returned to previous levels. Instead, grocery costs have continued to rise, just at a slower rate, roughly in line with overall inflation.
"But the damage had been done," said Ricky Volpe, a professor of agribusiness at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. "Any inflation that happens now in the grocery store is on top of these already very high prices, and consumers are very sensitive to that."
President Trump pledged to lower grocery prices in his second term. And while some individual items have become cheaper since Trump returned to office, overall grocery prices are up on average. That has been driven by a number of systemwide factors, from increased labor costs to tariffs to higher energy prices caused by the war with Iran.
Zoom in on a single food item, though, and the story is often more complicated. Specific issues facing one crop, animal species or geographic region can influence the retail price halfway around the world. Sometimes, the price of an item swings far beyond what inflation itself can explain, or the price goes down when most other items are trending up.
We picked five everyday food items — ground beef, eggs, coffee, butter and chocolate chip cookies — to explain the complicated math behind what you pay in the grocery store checkout line.
Ground beef
The cost of ground beef has been on the rise for years, largely due to weather and financial pressures on producers. A typical pound of ground beef last month cost $6.79, an 85% jump from a decade earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Recent droughts have devastated U.S. cattle herds, which can take years to recover. Layered onto that are the rising costs of farming equipment and fuel, a lack of land for grazing and a consolidated meatpacking industry that farmers and ranchers say eats into their profits. The number of U.S. cattle farms has been shrinking, according to the most recent Census of Agriculture. "I think there's still a sector of young people that have an interest in ag, but the barriers to entry to agriculture are huge," said Reid Hall, a Kentucky cattle farmer. All of that has led to the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75 years.
The Trump administration has tried a number of measures to lower ground beef prices over the past two years, including allowing in more imports of ground beef with no tariffs. But U.S. ranchers have largely panned such moves, arguing that increasing the amount of imported ground beef will only make it harder — and more expensive — for U.S. farms and ranches to operate.
Eggs
In recent years, the seesawing price of eggs has largely come down to avian flu, which affects wild birds and poultry. Large outbreaks force farms to cull their flocks to prevent the spread of the disease, diminishing the domestic supply of chickens and raising prices. That's what happened in 2022 and again in 2024, when there was a spike in the price of eggs, followed by a steep drop-off. How damaging avian flu is in a given season depends on the severity of the outbreak and the success of any biosecurity measures that U.S. farms take in response to the disease.
Outbreaks can have a whiplash effect on egg prices. An average dozen reached a record high of $6.23 in March of last year, when stocks were depleted by a brutal avian flu season. Yet last month, the typical U.S. price had dropped to $2.27 per dozen.
Though avian flu is the main driver of egg prices, it's not the only thing that can scramble U.S. poultry operations. The Trump administration's tariffs on foreign goods have also raised the cost of packaging materials, such as cardboard, that are used in egg cartons.
Coffee
The U.S. imports more than 99% of the coffee it consumes. That was why the Trump administration's tariffs on countries like Brazil, which is responsible for 35% of the global coffee supply, were particularly bitter for U.S. coffee drinkers. Last fall, the Trump administration scrapped tariffs on some foreign goods in a bid to lower prices, and coffee made the list.
But the price of coffee last month was still 44% higher than it was two years before. Severe weather and climate change are jolting harvests. Both drought and heavy rainfall in coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and Costa Rica have ground down coffee bean yields. And excessive moisture on coffee farms can cause mold growth and disease.
Butter
Butter currently costs a lot less bread than it used to. A pound of butter averaged $3.96 in September. That was down 17.3% since last year, bucking the trend of rising food prices.
Interest in butter has spread recently, nourishing a strong demand for the dairy product. New dietary guidelines announced this year by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who spearheaded the Make America Healthy Again movement, encourage people to eat fats like butter.
Yet even though demand for butter is high, supply is even higher. U.S. butter production is booming, in part because dairy farms grew their herds and increased milk supply to produce more milk proteins for popular foods like Greek yogurt and cottage cheese. That has also led to an oversupply of butter.
Chocolate chip cookies
The price of chocolate chip cookies began to rise steeply during the pandemic, hitting a record $5.35 per pound this January. (Last month, the classic treats were 20 cents cheaper.)
Part of the price spike can be explained by looking at the ingredients that go into chocolate chip cookies. The war in Ukraine ran up the cost of flour. Cocoa prices have hit multiple all-time highs in recent years. And avian flu largely determines what eggs go for in a given month. Some of those prices have come down recently, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last year that baked goods have remained pricey in part because of a high consumer demand for "more expensive luxury treats."
Keegan Rodgers, founder and pastry chef at the Lakehouse Bakery in Chelsea, Mich., has resisted buying cheaper ingredients — such as margarine instead of butter — just to save money. "If I switched to garden-variety ingredients, my costs would decrease by about 30%," he said.
But Rodgers, who noted that he is also paying more for labor and insurance, said he has reluctantly raised his prices to be able to afford high-quality ingredients and employ skilled bakers. "Real food is more important than the bottom line," he said.