Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted numerous U.S. Senate races in favor of Democrats on Wednesday, including Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall's seat in Kansas versus Democrat Adam Hamilton. The forecaster has moved the race from Leans Republican to a Toss-Up.
Marshall, a doctor, is currently in the seat that has been held by the GOP since 1919, the longest ever for any party. In a post on Truth Social discussing a potential rally for Marshall in the near future, President Donald Trump called him one of his "favorite Senators."
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
Trump carried Kansas by double digits over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, underscoring the state’s Republican tilt. But Democrats have maintained a foothold in the state, with Laura Kelly in the governor’s mansion even as Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats.
Hamilton campaign spokesperson Glynnis Harvey told Newsweek when asked about the new shift from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, "Roger Marshall abandoned Kansas. Instead of fighting for Kansas farmers, aviation workers, and families, he’s been a yes-man to corruption in Washington, supporting policies that are driving up costs and cutting healthcare. Republicans, Democrats, and Independents across Kansas are connecting with Adam’s message of leading from the middle to lower costs and solve our nation’s biggest problems. Kansans are ready for change.”
Newsweek reached out to Marshall's campaign via email on Wednesday for comment.
...
What To Know
Sabato’s Crystal Ball said they were initially hesitant to move the race into the Toss-Up category, "but a full-on Republican rescue operation appears underway for Marshall," which helped in part move the needle, the forecaster said.
The election forecaster also pointed to the Senate Leadership Fund investing heavily in the race, citing Punchbowl News.
"We noted last week that, for the first time all cycle, Republicans now needed to win more Toss-ups than Democrats did in order to win the Senate, and the Kansas move—a GOP-held state—now means Republicans need 4 of the 5 Toss-ups to hold the Senate, while Democrats still just need two," the forecaster said in part.
The U.S. Senate races that shifted in the new update, besides Kansas, are Nebraska from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, New Hampshire from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, Minnesota from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic and Mississippi from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
The Cook Political Report currently has the race rated as a Toss-Up as well, adding to the potentially troubling signs for Republicans surrounding the contest.
Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek on Wednesday, "Moving Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss-up is a real warning for Republicans, not a full red alert. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, so any serious threat there means the national environment is biting harder than expected. Senate Leadership Fund already dropped millions into Marshall’s race. That is the tell."
Agranoff continued: "When the party has to spend heavily to hold a seat that should be safe, it pulls resources from other fights. Hamilton is not a household name, and Marshall still has the structural edge. A toss-up rating in a deep red state is what forces campaigns to treat it like a real contest instead of a formality. It is not the race that decides the majority by itself, but it is the kind of race that makes holding the majority harder."
In his post earlier this week, Trump praised Marshall, calling him a wonderful person who has been given a "bum rap" for allegedly requesting money owed to him by his patients. Marshall had branded the ad targeting his practice a "lie."
Trump also threw jabs at Hamilton, saying that he loves high taxes, open borders and added that he wouldn't want the Democrat to be his pastor. The president accused Hamilton of mishandling allegations involving a church camp counselor whom Trump called a child predator. Hamilton's campaign has previously rejected those attacks and also told the Kansas Reflector in July that "there was no attempt at a cover-up" regarding the investigation into the counselor following reports of abuse beginning in 2005, the outlet says.
“I can just say that our aim was to make sure that if we got anything wrong, we wanted to get it right,” Hamilton said to the outlet.
Hamilton is pastor of the largest United Methodist Church in the country, the Church of the Resurrection. He founded the Kansas City-area congregation in 1990 at age 25, according to his campaign website.
What Recent Polling Shows
Recent polling shows Hamilton in the lead by a couple of points or a dead heat. Prediction market site Polymarket shows Marshall ahead with 63 percent versus Hamilton's 38 percent on Wednesday afternoon.
A YouGov poll showed Hamilton with 48 percent of the potential vote compared to Marshall's 45 percent. One percent said someone else, 5 percent said undecided and 1 percent said they would not vote. The poll surveyed 2,255 likely voters in Kansas from September 24 to October 4 and had a 3.2 percent margin of error.
An InsiderAdvantage poll shows Hamilton with 47.5 percent of the vote compared to Marshall's 46.7 percent. Libertarian Party candidate David C. Graham landed 3.4 percent of the vote, and 2.4 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted from October 9-10, 2026, among 1,200 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.83 percent.
A Trafalgar Group poll showed Hamilton had 44.4 percent of the potential vote compared to 43.5 percent for Marshall, 2 percent for Graham and 10.1 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 1,095 likely voters across the state from September 29 to October 1 and had a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Map of Current Toss-Up Senate Races
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas