ARGENTINA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina is South America’s second-largest economy, led since December 2023 by libertarian President Javier Milei.
- —What happened Milei told Radio Mitre on Monday 12 October that he has US$125 billion to face a peso run in 2027.
- —The US link His dollar firepower includes a swap line of up to US$20 billion with the US Treasury, announced on 20 October 2025.
- —The precedent Argentina’s central bank drew US$2.5 billion from that line in late 2025 and repaid it in December 2025.
- —Caputo Milei dismissed talk that Economy Minister Luis Caputo could leave, calling their relationship “symbiotic.”
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Milei a 54.5% chance of winning Argentina’s 2027 presidential election (13 October, 2:48 a.m. ET).
Argentine President Javier Milei says his government has US$125 billion ready to fight a peso run during next year’s presidential election. He made the claim on Monday 12 October in an interview with Radio Mitre, a Buenos Aires talk-radio station.
The pledge matters to Americans because part of that firepower is a swap line of up to US$20 billion with the US Treasury. Argentina drew US$2.5 billion from it in late 2025 and repaid it in December.
What Milei Told Radio Mitre
“I have US$125 billion to face a run next year,” Milei said, in remarks reported by Infobae and El Cronista. Infobae is a large Argentine news site, and El Cronista is a Buenos Aires financial daily.
A peso run is a rush by savers and investors to swap pesos for dollars, which can send the exchange rate sharply lower. Milei has argued that Argentine election periods invite such attacks.
“I don’t expect a run, but I am preparing,” he told host Eduardo Feinmann, Infobae and La Política Online reported. He compared the sum with the roughly US$70 billion he says the government could gather last year.
The US Swap Line Behind the Pledge
Argentina’s central bank, the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), announced a swap of up to US$20 billion with the US Treasury. The deal, dated 20 October 2025, widens the BCRA’s tools for when currency and capital markets turn volatile, the bank said.
The BCRA drew US$2.5 billion before the October 2025 congressional elections and repaid it in December, La Gaceta reported, citing the bank. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then said the US Exchange Stabilization Fund held no more pesos.
The full US$20 billion line remains in force, the Argentine government said after the repayment, according to La Gaceta. Of all the tools Milei counts against a peso run, it is the one that ties Washington most directly to Argentina.
At an Argentina Week investor event in Paris, Milei had described a “bazooka of dollars,” El Economista reported on 1 October. It listed US$20 billion in central bank dollar purchases, US$20 billion each from the US and Chinese swaps, and US$15 billion in futures.
On Monday he named the same four items and said they came to US$75 billion, Infobae and La Política Online reported. He then added export dollars and financing for about US$25 billion in debt payments due next year, which he said is already arranged.
Why Caputo’s Future Came Up
Milei used the interview to dismiss rumours that Economy Minister Luis Caputo, who runs Argentina’s economic programme, could leave the cabinet. “I have a symbiotic relationship with Toto Caputo,” he said, using the minister’s nickname.
“We talk regularly and our vision is perfectly aligned,” Milei added, El Cronista reported. He said the rumours aimed to weaken Caputo before talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Washington-based lender to governments in trouble.
Caputo is due in Bangkok, Thailand, on Tuesday 13 October for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. On Monday the fund <a href=”https://www.riotimesonline.com/imf-argentina-growth-forecast-2026/”>cut its Argentina growth forecast for 2026 to 2.1% from 3.5%</a>.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors give Milei a 54.5% chance of winning Argentina’s 2027 presidential election (13 October, 2:48 a.m. ET). Axel Kicillof, the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province and Milei’s main left-leaning rival, stands at 32.5%.
The market has drawn about US$838,000 in bets, and Milei’s price slipped 1 point over 24 hours. The election matters here because Milei expects any peso run to come during that campaign.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US investors in Argentine bonds and shares, Milei’s message is that the government can absorb a peso run in the 2027 election year. A steadier peso makes it easier to keep paying foreign bondholders.
Not everyone accepts the size of the cushion. Economist Miguel Ángel Broda estimates that pesos worth about US$183 billion could chase dollars in a run, Infobae and La Política Online reported.
For American taxpayers, the exposure runs through the Treasury swap line. The 2025 drawing was repaid by December 2025, but a new drawing would again put US funds behind the peso.
What Is Not Known
The government has published no official breakdown that adds up to US$125 billion. Part of the total relies on swap lines, futures and expected export earnings rather than dollars the central bank already holds.
It is also not known whether the US Treasury would agree to a fresh drawing during a peso run in 2027, or on what terms. The swap’s detailed terms are confidential, La Gaceta reported.
Broda’s report, written before Monday’s interview, said continued US backing cannot be taken for granted, Infobae reported. It tied that partly to the outcome of the US elections in November.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much does Milei say Argentina has to stop a peso run?
US$125 billion, he told Radio Mitre on Monday 12 October. He said he does not expect a run in 2027 but is preparing for one.
Is the US Treasury part of Argentina’s dollar firepower?
Yes. Argentina’s central bank and the US Treasury agreed a swap line of up to US$20 billion on 20 October 2025. The government said in January 2026 that it remains fully in force, and Milei still counts it.
Is Luis Caputo leaving Argentina’s Economy Ministry?
Milei says no. He called their relationship symbiotic and said the two men’s views are perfectly aligned.
Sources: BCRA: El BCRA y el Departamento del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos firman un acuerdo de estabilización cambiaria por USD 20.000 millones, 20 October 2025; Infobae: Milei: “Tenemos USD 125.000 millones para enfrentar una corrida el año que viene”, 12 October 2026; El Cronista: Milei les respondió a los que especulan con un salto del dólar, 12 October 2026; La Política Online: Milei ahora dice que necesita USD 125 mil millones para evitar una corrida, 12 October 2026; Perfil: Dólares anticorrida: la “bazuka” de Milei crece y ya subió su monto a US$ 125.000 millones, 12 October 2026; Ámbito: Javier Milei respaldó a Luis Caputo, se mostró confiado en su reelección y habló sobre la visita del Papa, 12 October 2026; La Gaceta: El Banco Central informó que le devolvió al Tesoro de EEUU los US$2.500 millones del swap, 9 January 2026; El Economista: Milei prometió un 2028 histórico y reveló su bazuca de dólares, 1 October 2026; Infobae: Según un reconocido consultor, la potencial corrida cambiaria es mayor y la bazuca de dólares menor de lo que dice el Gobierno, 12 October 2026; La Nación: Milei negó la salida de Luis Caputo y se mostró confiado en que será reelecto, 12 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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