Armenia could face severe economic consequences if it withdraws from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), even if only half of the projected losses materialise, Armenian opposition lawmaker Artur Khachatryan has warned.
Speaking to journalists, Khachatryan expressed concern over the potential economic and political implications of Armenia's departure from the Russia-led economic bloc, arguing that the country could suffer significant losses in trade, energy supplies and economic output.
"Even if the calculations are only 50% accurate, the future that awaits us could truly be apocalyptic," he said.
The lawmaker questioned suggestions that Armenian exporters could easily compensate for the loss of access to EAEU markets by redirecting their products to other countries.
"I understand what is being said: that we won't just let these apricots go to waste—we will take them elsewhere and sell them, and the money will come back to us regardless," Khachatryan stated.
He referred specifically to discussions about exporting Armenian agricultural products to Uzbekistan, expressing doubts about whether the available trade statistics supported such expectations.
"I would like to look at some statistics, because there was talk about exporting apricots to Uzbekistan; I’ve seen the Uzbek statistics, and the figures don't quite align—there are some issues regarding Uzbekistan's statistics," he said.
Khachatryan emphasised that the consequences of leaving the EAEU should not be assessed solely through economic calculations, arguing that political considerations and the loss of existing trade arrangements must also be taken into account.
"Regardless, we need to understand that this involves not only economic calculations but also, primarily, political considerations. Specifically, what advantages would the Republic of Armenia lose if it were no longer a member of the EAEU?" he asked.
The opposition politician referred to projections suggesting that Armenia's withdrawal could result in a GDP contraction of approximately 17%.
"If the EAEU has projected, for instance, a significant GDP decline—let’s say around 17%—and even if the actual impact turns out to be half of that, it still represents a very serious problem," Khachatryan warned.
He also raised concerns about Armenia's dependence on imported natural gas, suggesting that leaving the EAEU could complicate existing energy supply arrangements.
Khachatryan argued that changes in commercial and political relations could affect not only the price of gas but also the volumes available to Armenia.
"If we obtain the gas at that price—and what other option would there be if we didn't buy it?, the buyer might say, 'Fine, if it costs this much...' but the seller could respond, 'At that price, I’m only selling half the volume,'" he said.
His remarks come amid renewed debate over Armenia's economic future following an EAEU assessment of the potential consequences of Yerevan leaving the organisation.
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have reportedly examined the implications of Armenia's possible withdrawal, warning that the economic impact on Armenia could be substantial while the consequences for the remaining member states would be comparatively limited.
Armenia has been a member of the EAEU since 2015 but has increasingly pursued closer relations with the European Union.
In 2025, the Armenian Parliament adopted legislation initiating the country's EU accession process, prompting objections from Moscow and Minsk over the compatibility of membership in both economic frameworks.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has maintained that Armenia has not violated its obligations to the EAEU and has not made a formal decision to withdraw.
Khachatryan's warning reflects concerns within Armenia's opposition over the economic risks of a potential departure, although the projected GDP losses remain estimates rather than confirmed outcomes.