YES Securities now models a sustainable structural GRM premium of $3 per barrel for RIL over domestic PSU refiners, with scope for further upside to its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and free cash flow.
RIL share price
Shares of Reliance Industries settled at Rs 1,159 on Monday, falling more than 1 per cent during the session. The stock touched a 52-week low of Rs 1,153.10 intraday, taking its market capitalisation to around Rs 15.68 lakh crore. RIL shares are down 28 per cent from their 52-week high of Rs 1,611.20, recorded in January 2026.
Venezuelan crude supplies return
Historically, Jamnagar processed 300,000–400,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan Merey-16 crude, giving RIL a raw-material cost advantage. These volumes fell to negligible levels between 2021 and 2023 following US sanctions.
YES Securities said Venezuelan crude flows are now moving back towards historical levels through intermediaries authorised by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). This could restore RIL's access to discounted heavy, high-sulphur crude, although supplies remain subject to licensing conditions.
Jamnagar's refining complexity advantage
The brokerage said Jamnagar's delayed coking units, hydrocracking capacity and petroleum coke gasification complex enable the refinery to process high-sulphur, high-total-acid-number (TAN) and metal-heavy crude while minimising residual fuel oil output.
It added that the refinery's captive syngas production also reduces its dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), supporting cost efficiencies across its integrated operations.
Earnings sensitivity
RIL's annual throughput of around 70 million metric tonnes means every $1-per-barrel increase in blended GRM could lift annual EBITDA by approximately Rs 4,200 crore, according to YES Securities.
The brokerage said Venezuelan heavy crude accounting for 25–35 per cent of the crude slate could strengthen feedstock arbitrage benefits, while integration with the gasification complex could further support margins.
If these factors translate into a $2–3-per-barrel improvement in blended GRM, the potential annualised O2C EBITDA uplift could reach Rs 8,400–12,600 crore, according to the brokerage's estimates. A sustained improvement could also strengthen free cash flow.
RIL target prices
YES Securities has a 'buy' rating on Reliance Industries, with a target price of Rs 1,660. This implies an upside potential of around 43 per cent from the stock's latest closing price of Rs 1,159.
Among other brokerages, PL Capital, Nomura and Systematix Institutional Equities also have 'buy' ratings on the stock, with target prices of Rs 1,675, Rs 1,690 and Rs 1,700, respectively.
Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.