Emergency oil stocks come under pressure
Strategic reserves help countries manage sudden supply disruptions while they find alternative sources. But releasing large volumes reduces the stock available for the next crisis.
In March, the International Energy Agency coordinated an emergency stock release, with the US pledging 172 million barrels, according to the supplied material. China’s reported drawdown of 47–57 million barrels in September adds to concerns over how quickly major economies can rebuild their reserves.
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The key challenge is not just managing the current disruption, but ensuring enough oil remains in storage if another supply crisis hits.
Alternative routes face risks
Pipelines and rerouted cargoes have helped cushion the impact of the Hormuz disruption. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline carries crude towards the Red Sea, while the UAE has a pipeline to Fujairah that offers an alternative route for exports.
Refiners have also switched crude grades and suppliers to maintain operations. These measures helped the market absorb a disruption that affected a significant share of global energy supplies.
🚨 Hormuz is the largest energy supply shock on record, says McKinsey At its peak, the Strait of Hormuz disruption took 14% of global oil and gas supply off the market. That is more than double the 1970s oil shocks in relative terms, and more than six times the peak impact of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Before the crisis, 91% of the energy flowing through Hormuz was oil and 9% was gas. The system has held up better than that scale suggests. 3 buffers absorbed the shock, and none of them existed at this scale in 1973: Strategic stocks: the IEA coordinated a release in March, with the US alone pledging 172M barrels. Bypass pipelines: Saudi Arabia’s East-West line to the Red Sea and the UAE’s line to Fujairah. Flexible trade: cargoes rerouted and refiners switched crude grades and suppliers. ⚠️ Those buffers are being used up. The US SPR is at its lowest since 1982. China drew a record 47–57M barrels from storage in September. The East-West pipeline was hit in September, and October brought the most ship attacks of the war. A buffer protects you only once. The question for 2027 is whether stocks get rebuilt before the next disruption. Source: McKinsey Global Institute
— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) October 14, 2026
However, the supplied material says Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was hit in September and October saw the highest number of ship attacks of the conflict. Damage to alternative infrastructure and continued threats to shipping could make it harder to maintain flows if the strait faces further disruption.
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Rebuilding reserves is the next test
The pressure on stockpiles highlights a key weakness in the global energy system: emergency reserves can cushion a crisis, but they are not unlimited. Replenishing them while protecting alternative routes will be important for countries seeking to reduce their exposure to future supply shocks.
For now, the question is whether major oil-consuming economies can rebuild their buffers before another disruption tests them. The Hormuz crisis has shown that alternative routes and emergency stocks can soften the impact of lost supplies, but their effectiveness depends on how much capacity remains when the next shock arrives.
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