Le Pen would top the first-round vote with between 35% and 37%, depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Toluna Harris Interactive in a survey carried out between 5 October and 8 October
Reuters
12 October, 2026, 12:15 pm
Last modified: 12 October, 2026, 12:19 pm
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon have widened their lead over other candidates and would face each other in a run-off in all tested scenarios, a poll showed on Monday, highlighting growing polarisation as President Emmanuel Macron's era ends.
Le Pen would top the first-round vote with between 35% and 37%, depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Toluna Harris Interactive in a survey carried out between 5 October and 8 October.
A similar poll last month showed her at between 33% and 36%.
Melenchon, the candidate of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, is seen reaching a run-off in all five scenarios polled.
A similar poll last month showed him finishing third in two of the five configurations.
Le Pen is seen beating Melenchon comfortably in a run-off.
As Macron's second and final five-year term comes to an end, the unpopular president leaves behind a hollowed-out political centre and a weak economy, creating an opening for hardline parties such as LFI and Le Pen's National Rally.
Melenchon has already run for president three times, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, but has never managed to reach the second round. Le Pen has also run in all three elections. She reached the run-off in 2017 and 2022 but lost to Macron.