Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, is Brazil’s president since 2023 and the candidate of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT). Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro state and the candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL); his father, Jair Bolsonaro, was president from 2019 to 2022.
Only these two remain in the race after the first round on 4 October. Whoever wins more than half of the valid votes across Brazil becomes president.
Overseas tallies are too small to move the real or Brazilian shares, so investors should wait for the electoral court’s count on the What Prediction Markets Say
These prices are bets, not polls and not results. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 82.5% · Lula 17.5% (US$199 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 81% · Lula 20%
As of 25 October, 1:40 pm ET (17:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The figures are news sites’ sums of ballot-box reports, and their totals differ by the time of the count. Nothing here is confirmed by the electoral court, and results from Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States are not in the tallies we found.
It is also not known how overseas turnout compares with the first round. The national result comes only after polls in Brazil close at 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. in Brasília).
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Brazil vote abroad?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the early overseas tally with 52.66% of valid votes, driven by Japan, according to Exame. Lula leads in 30 places to 12, and the count is unofficial.
Why is Japan so important in the overseas count?
Japan has 88,366 registered voters, and Flávio Bolsonaro won 28,538 votes to 7,098 there. Exame says that is 62% of all his overseas votes, and Lula would lead without Japan.
Does the overseas vote predict who wins Brazil?
No. Brazilians abroad are about 0.6% of voters and lean differently by country. The national result comes from the electoral court’s count of the vote inside Brazil.
When do Brazilians in the US finish voting?
The last US and Canadian polls, in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Vancouver, close at 9 p.m. in Brasília, which is 8 p.m. ET. About 265,437 Brazilians are registered to vote in the United States.
Sources: Exame, who is winning abroad in the runoff, 25 October 2026, Metrópoles, partial overseas vote, 25 October 2026, Terra, overseas results by country, TSE, voters abroad, Polymarket, Brazil Presidential Election. Opened on Sunday 25 October 2026. Figures are unofficial.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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