The unfinished boundary demarcation between India and China needs special mention to avert any standoff – similar to those in the Doklam region in 2017 or the Galwan Valley in 2020-21 – in the Upper Subansiri region of Arunachal Pradesh, where local people and political organisations such as the Arunachal Frontier Tribal Front (AFTF) have claimed that Chinese intrusions have taken place. The establishment of massive Chinese infrastructure projects reportedly extending up to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as seen in satellite images, and claims by indigenous organisations such as the Nah Welfare Society (NWS) that grazing grounds have been lost are worrying signs. These developments raise concerns about the security of the northern boundary, particularly as China does not recognise the McMahon Line and categorically claims the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as Chinese territory.
The Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken’s Neck, which connects the Northeast with mainland India, came into the spotlight after Muhammad Yunus, then head of Bangladesh’s interim government, suggested to China that the Northeast could be cut off from India. The Bangladesh government’s ongoing plan to strengthen the Lalmonirhat airbase in the Rangpur Division of northern Bangladesh, near the Siliguri Corridor in West Bengal, is another cause for concern. These developments need to be examined against the backdrop of the 2017 Doklam standoff, during which Indian armed forces and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) remained locked in a military confrontation for 73 days on the Doklam Plateau, near the India-Tibet-Bhutan trijunction, north of the Siliguri Corridor. Bangladesh’s current government is moving closer to Pakistan and China, a development that does not augur well for the security of the Northeast.
The ongoing conflict in Myanmar has a significant bearing on the volatile situation in Manipur. The conflict involves the ruling military regime, known as the State Administration Council (SAC) or Tatmadaw, and ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army, fighting against military rule and for the restoration of democracy. Amid this situation, the Rohingya, who fled repression by the military regime and armed groups in their ancestral homeland in Rakhine State in western Myanmar and sought refuge in Bangladesh, have become part of a wider humanitarian and geopolitical crisis. The situation has also attracted external powers seeking to advance their own geopolitical interests. China’s interest in opening an alternative outlet to the Bay of Bengal for importing gas and oil has been a factor in its support for the military regime. Partly to counter Chinese influence, the US administration has allegedly supported the Arakan Army in its opposition to military rule. Reports also indicate that the US has provided nearly USD 4,000 million in “non-lethal” support to various insurgent groups in Myanmar, and some of this aid, possibly including weapons, has reportedly found its way into Manipur. Reports of Russia supplying arms to Myanmar further illustrate the power politics being played out by the major powers.
In this conflict zone, Myanmar’s military is believed to have lost control of its main border crossings with China, as well as Rihkhawdar, a town bordering Mizoram. The military regime has also lost control of parts of northwestern Myanmar bordering Manipur and Mizoram, where the border remains open and the Free Movement Regime (FMR) is still operational. As a result, the porous border has facilitated the movement of insurgent groups through Manipur’s Churachandpur, Chandel, Kamjong, Tengnoupal and Ukhrul districts. Manipur shares a 398-km border with Myanmar. The Arakan Army controls a large part of Rakhine State, including the entire 271-km-long border with Bangladesh. Armed groups have also taken the fight to Kayah State, bordering Thailand, and the Sagaing Region and Chin State, bordering India, making large parts of Myanmar inaccessible.
The conflict and the Arakan Army’s growing influence have affected Indian development initiatives such as the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP), which was designed to connect the Northeast States to the Bay of Bengal through Rakhine State in Myanmar, providing an alternative route to the Siliguri Corridor. The implementation of the Act East Policy has been severely hampered since the military regime seized power in the country in 2021.
The situation in Myanmar has been further complicated by the flow of drugs from the Golden Triangle, a major illicit drug-producing and trafficking region at the crossroads of Myanmar, Thailand and Laos. Drug trafficking is also linked to poppy cultivation in the hills of Manipur, which is facilitated by local moneylenders irrespective of ethnic affiliation. The Manipur crisis cannot be resolved unless its border with Myanmar is effectively secured, drug money is prevented from reaching insurgents to finance arms purchases, and local facilitators are provided with alternative sources of income to discourage their involvement in the illicit trade. As the situation in Myanmar has a direct impact on the Manipur crisis, the Government of India must also engage with the democratic forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National Unity Government, which has been operating in exile since 2021, as well as with Myanmar’s insurgent groups fighting for the restoration of democracy.
Even after seven decades of Independence, one wonders whether we are still ruled by our own government. Otherwise, how can one explain the failure to control the unabated violence and bloodshed that have continued in Manipur for more than three years, leaving the State engulfed in uncertainty and hopelessness? The violence has resulted in the deaths of more than 300 people, left over 65,000 internally displaced persons languishing in relief camps, created buffer zones between communities, and exposed the authorities’ failure to prevent the unrestricted movement of armed insurgents and the flow of drugs.
Similarly, more than six decades after the 1962 war with China, what progress has been made in demarcating the McMahon Line or establishing a permanent boundary along the LAC to ensure peace and security for the people of Arunachal Pradesh? In the context of current global geopolitical dynamics, China has emerged as a major power in the Global South. Consequently, unresolved boundary issues affecting Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Mizoram could prove increasingly costly. Herein lies the importance of a pragmatic foreign policy that India must pursue.
Written by Dr Joysankar Hazarika
(The author is a retired Principal of Darrang College)