The Seattle Mariners and the other 29 teams in the MLB will have a very interesting offseason and free agency period.
Teams will have just one month to sign free agents or make any other moves pertaining to the 40-man roster before the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires between the MLB and MLB Players Assocation. After the CBA expires Dec. 1, teams will be unable to sign new players or make any moves pertaining to the roster.
The Mariners already have a busy offseason in front of them with trying to find a manager for the 2027 season. They're currently scheduled to have a virtual interview with current Houston Astros manager Joe Espada.
Seattle reportedly wants to find a manager by Halloween, which would allow the team the full month to make any additions it sees fit for the roster. If the managerial search goes beyond that point, the team will have some payroll flexibility if it needs to rush to sign players.
According to an article from Seattle Times reporter Adam Jude, the Mariners are currently predicted to have a payroll of $130-135 million for the 2027 season, including projected arbitration numbers for eligible players. The payroll is likely to stay in the range of $165-170 million, as it has been the last two seasons, and any increase would be "incremental," per Jude's article.
This would leave $30-35 million for Seattle to spend in November. If the MLB and MLB Players Association comes to an agreement on a new CBA that includes the MLB's proposed salary floor ($171.2 million), that would fall line with the M's projected numbers. It's unclear if the team would opt to raise payroll if MLB's proposed salary cap ($245.3 million) is implemented.
This year's free agency class is one of the weaker in recent memory, with Mariners left fielder Randy Arozarena set to headline the class and not expected to return to the team.
Following the trade deadline, Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said that the team struggled to find worthwhile trades due to the team's internal grades on players and not being able to find what the organization considered upgrades at many positions. This year's month of free agency could be very similar.
The team is set to lose two starters to free agency: Arozarena and third baseman/shortstop J.P. Crawford. The team has multiple, but unproven options for left field with utility player Brendan Donovan, who was limited to just 39 games due to injury this season, or top 100 prospect Michael Arroyo, who received his major league call-up Sept. 6 and received 35 at-bats across 15 games played.
For third base or shortstop, former top prospect Colt Emerson, who ended the season on the Injured list due to wrist surgery, is capable of assuming the starting job. Donovan could also slide into either position if necessary.
The bullpen is also an area in need of improvement for the Mariners. The team's collective reliever ERA (4.46) ranked 22nd in the major leagues.
The team might benefit from having Donovan be in a true utility/designated hitter role, which would leave Arroyo to play left field, Emerson to play shortstop and third base open. This would leave a reliever and a third baseman at the top of the wishlist for Seattle in November.
The list free agent third basemen isn't pretty. It includes Bo Bichette, who has an opt out in his contract and is coming off one of the worst years of his career; Yoan Moncada, who's coming off two injury-plagued seasons with the Los Angeles Angels; Eugenio Suarez, who the team opted not to bring back last offseason and again when he was on waivers this season (he also has a mutual option with the Cincinnati Reds); Alec Bohm, who had a sub-.700 OPS season for the first time since 2021; Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes, who might be one of the highest-paid hitters on the open market (if Houston doesn't exercise its $13.4 million club option) and Crawford, among others.
With the exception of Paredes, the Mariners could theoretically chase after any one of these player at discounts given aforementioned factors and still have enough money in the budget to go after a high-leverage reliever. The team has had reported interested in Moncada each of the past two offseasons. Trading for a third basemen is also on the table.
However, another player could be the perfect fit for Seattle.
Third baseman Teruaki Sato is expected to be posted, along with pitchers Kaima Taira and Hiromi Itoh, from their respective teams in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball towards the beginning of November.
Sato primarily plays third base and is capable of playing the outfield, making his positionally flexible in a way that benefits the M's. He also has hit tools that lie firmly in between two notable Japanese hitters last year, Kazuma Okamoto (Toronto Blue Jays) and Munetaka Murakami.
Okamoto signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Blue Jays ($15 million AAV) and Murakami signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the White Sox ($17 million AAV).
Both players did relatively well for their respective clubs in their first years in the majors. Okamoto slashed .232/.310/.452 with a .762 OPS in 156 games and hit 26 doubles and 33 home runs with 92 RBIs.
Murakami slashed .207/.347/.478 with an .825 OPS in 127 games and hit 16 doubles, one triple and 35 home runs with 77 RBIs. He missed roughly a month-and-a-half due to a right hamstring strain.
Sato is considered to have more power than Okamoto (not as much as Murakami) and a better contact tool than Murakami (not as good as Okamoto).
That, and his flexiblity to play the outfield, could make him the perfect candidate to take over at third base. The possible precedent of Okamoto and Murakami's contracts would also put him in Seattle's price range.
Sato, who's been pictured in Mariners gear and has taken vacations to Seattle in the past, has been arguably the best hitter in NPB this season. He's slashed .306/.383/.609 with a .991 OPS in 143 games and has hit 40 doubles, three triples and 39 home runs with 106 RBIs.
Teruaki Sato is another very polarizing bat who could be coming over from Japan this winter.
— Carson Wolf (@TheWrigleyWire) October 10, 2026
In 2026:
.306/.383/.609 — 201 wRC+
39 HR | 40 2B | 106 RBI | 8 SB
Has played primarily 3B, though he has experience in the corner OF as well. pic.twitter.com/YqF09HQzSC
The bullpen market will likely see a significant amount of investment from teams this offseason. Atlanta Braves closer Raisel Iglesias is set to be an unrestricted free agent coming off a sub-3.00 ERA, 34-save season. David Bednar, Pete Fairbanks and A.J. Minter are also set to be unrestricted free agents.
Fairbanks is coming off a 19-save season where he had an ERA above 6.00. He could be available at a discount coming off his disappointing season with the Miami Marlins. Seattle brought back pitching coach Pete Woodworth and director of pitching strategy Trent Blank will be back, which could provide a structure needed for Fairbanks.
Kenley Jansen, who's coming off his 17th season in the major leagues, could also be available for a discount due to his age. The Detroit Tigers will need to exercise a $12 million club option to bring him back.
The Mariners could also kick the tires on Taira, who has experience as both a starter and a closer in NPB. The team had scouts in Japan to watch him pitch earlier this season, but his ability to be a starter or back-end arm could price him out of what Seattle is comfortable paying.
Seattle will have options and the ability to find a player for third base and a proven high-leverage arm for the bullpen in free agency, it may just be a batter of what the team is comfortable and able to pay, which has been a common theme in recent offseasons.