Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose Shootout Against Cowboys

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers could score a lot of points on Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers’ offense got rolling against Chicago, and Dallas’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL.

On the other hand – well, let’s just roll into the three reasons why the Packers will lose to the Cowboys.

1. Can’t Stop Cowboys

Remember last year’s 40-40 tie? What will these teams do for an encore?

(The over/under of 53.5 points is the highest on the board at FanDuel Sportsbook, by the way.)

The Packers are going to score points against the Cowboys’ porous defense. The same probably will be true for Dallas’ offense against Green Bay’s defense.

All along, the biggest question about Green Bay’s defense without Micah Parsons is how it would contend with a real quarterback throwing the ball to real receivers. Minnesota’s Kyler Murray is mediocre. The Jets’ Geno Smith is nearing the end of his career. Atlanta’s Michael Penix is a work in progress. The Buccaneers started an undrafted rookie backup. The Bears started a backup.

Dak Prescott is an elite quarterback.

The Packers’ starting cornerbacks, Keisean Nixon and Brandon Cisse, have played winning football overall for five games. But this will be their biggest challenge. 

The Vikings’ Justin Jefferson scored two touchdowns. The Falcons’ Drake London had 194 receiving yards. The Cowboys have a premier receiving tandem with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb had three consecutive games of 110-plus yards in Weeks 2, 3 and 4. In Week 5, it was Pickens’ turn with nine catches for 130 yards.

“If they see one-on-one, Dak has no hesitation of going up and just letting them try to make a play,” safety Evan Williams said. “So, I feel like for the back end, especially from the safety perspective, it puts a lot more importance and pressure on disguise, trying to show them something else, so he doesn’t know he has one-on-one on the outside before the ball’s snapped. CeeDee had, what, 20 receptions when Houston was playing two-high safety and showing it for most of the game and just made it easy.”

A good defense has a combination of pressure and coverage. While the Packers are eighth in sack percentage, applying anything resembling consistent pressure has been a problem. The Packers are only 29th in pass-rush win rate, according to ESPN. While it’s true that defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon can create pressure, doing so would put his cornerbacks at risk.

Remember, Prescott (without Lamb) shredded the Packers (with Parsons) last season.

With a clean pocket this season, Prescott’s passer rating is 116.6. There might be a lot of clean pockets without Parsons.

“You play this game, and you wanted to play in the NFL as a kid to play against the best,” Prescott told reporters this week. “That’s what this league is about and that’s what everybody wants. So, it’s what makes it fun. Obviously, wishing him all the best getting healthy. Caught up with him a lot this off season here in Dallas while he was rehabbing. He knows I support him in that.

“At the end of the day, it’s just the Cowboys versus the Packers. This isn’t me vs. Micah or the Cowboys vs. Micah. It’s about us going in and getting a win.”

2. Revenge Games

Dallas’ defense is terrible. One reason is the Micah Parsons trade, with the Packers sending three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark to Dallas. A second reason is this offseason’s trade of Rashan Gary to Dallas.

Clark has four solo tackles, zero sacks and zero tackles for losses. Gary has 10 solo tackles, one sack and one tackle for loss, though he ranks 10th among edge rushers in pass-rush win rate.

If there ever was a game for one or both players to change a game, this would be it.

“It’s their first getting to play the team that they were here for so long, so you’ll get nothing but their best,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “I was with RG and Kenny for a long time and I’ve got a lot of respect and love for those guys. Great players, great people, so I know we’ll get their best and it’ll be cool to see them.”

Dallas’ pass defense has been shredded this season. Whichever team wins the matchup between Green Bay’s blockers and the former Green Bay tandem of Gary and Clark might win the game.

“I think it starts up front for sure,” Clark told reporters this week. “We've got to get after the passer, stop the run. They haven't been running the ball well this year. That's the No. 1 key, stopping the run. And when we get in pass-rush situations, getting hits on the quarterback, getting sacks on the quarterback.”

3. The Extra Mile

Last week against Chicago, Jordan Love ran the Packers’ version of the Air Raid. One big play after another led to a blowout win.

While first-year Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker is under fire for a unit that ranks 25th in points allowed, 31st in total defense and last in opponent passer rating, he’s not an idiot. The Cowboys no doubt would prefer the Packers move the ball down the field in small chunks rather than allowing Christian Watson and Matthew Golden to pile up 266 yards on 12 catches.

“Well, it’s just dependent upon who we’re playing and where we think we can take advantage,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of the adjustment. “The one thing I would tell you, if teams are going to play soft shell, certainly you have some beaters for those type of coverages.

“But I think at the same time, if they’re going to sit off and have a light box, you better be able to run the ball, and that’s what we haven’t done well enough up to this point in terms of run efficiency. We’ve been able to rip off some explosive runs, but the efficiency in the running game isn’t where it needs to be right now.”

He’s obviously right. Shell defense means two deep safeties rather than one deep safety and one safety near the line of scrimmage. With fewer defenders to account for in the box, it’s an invitation to run the ball.

The Packers, of course, have the worst rushing attack in the NFL. So, can the Packers run the ball at a winning level? Or can Jordan Love move the ball with the short- and intermediate-range passing game on a blustery Sunday?

“It’s a good question. We’ll see,” Love said of how defenses will adjust in light of the Chicago game. “I think, obviously, there’s two-high shell, stuff like that, but that’s not always the answer. So, we’ll see. You never know what you’re going to get until, obviously, you get into gameday, get into the feel for what their game plan is for that week. So, we’ll see, but I think, obviously, you go back to shell but I think a couple of those plays we hit were in shell.”

If the Packers have to go the extra mile, can they put up enough points to win? The Packers enter the game ranked 32nd on third down and 24th in the red zone. Even last week, they were just 4-of-12 on third down, and they haven’t had a game of better than 40 percent. So, for all the fireworks from last week, the Packers have a major problem that hasn’t been addressed.

“We’ve talked about how inconsistent we’ve been as an offense and a lot of areas that we weren’t playing up to our standard, stuff that we need to clean up,” Love said. “It hasn’t been great all-around so, definitely, when you have a game like Sunday where you put up points, make some big explosive plays and it feels good.

“In a game like that, when you leave the game feeling the way we did, it builds confidence. It’s stuff that can drive you into that next week feeling good. Now it’s how do we follow that performance up with another good one Sunday.”

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER