The average concentration of PM2.5 particles in Tashkent decreased by 28% between January 1 and October 19, 2026, compared with the same period last year, while PM10 concentrations declined by 32%, according to Doniyor Turg‘unov, Director of the Hydrometeorological Research Institute.
The reduction was also recorded during the autumn months, although meteorological conditions continue to influence pollution levels in the capital. According to Turg‘unov, between September 1 and October 19, average PM2.5 concentrations were 28% lower than during the corresponding period in 2025, while PM10 concentrations decreased by 37%.
During the first 19 days of October, PM2.5 levels declined by 40%, and PM10 levels fell by 56% year-on-year. The number of days classified as having "harmful" air quality under the international Air Quality Index (AQI) also decreased. During the corresponding period last year, air quality reached this level on 11 days. No such days were recorded during the same period in 2026.
Meanwhile, the number of days when air quality, based on PM2.5 concentrations, was classified as "moderate" or better increased from 21 to 38. Turg‘unov explained that autumn air pollution in Tashkent is influenced by meteorological conditions, natural dust and combustion processes.
One of the contributing factors is temperature inversion, which occurs when the Earth's surface cools rapidly at night. Under these conditions, a layer of warmer air above prevents colder air near the surface from rising, restricting the vertical movement of pollutants.
The atmospheric mixing layer, which typically reaches 2–3 kilometers during summer, can decrease to several hundred meters in autumn. Combined with weaker winds, this causes pollutants to accumulate over the city. Natural dust also contributes to particulate matter concentrations.
Dust can be transported into Central Asia from deserts surrounding the Caspian Sea, as well as the Kyzylkum, Aralkum and southern Balkhash deserts. Low precipitation during September and October also makes it easier for soil dust to become airborne.
According to research conducted by the World Bank and the Committee for Ecology, natural dust is the largest annual source of PM2.5 particles in Tashkent. The study identified the following contributions to annual PM2.5 pollution:
Natural dust transported by wind — 36%
Building heating — 28%
Transport — 16%
Industry — 13%
Remaining sources — urban dust and waste burning
The proportions vary depending on the season. Laboratory analysis of PM2.5 samples collected in Tashkent's Yunusobod, Olmazor and Mirzo Ulug‘bek districts also identified a substantial contribution from natural dust during the autumn. Between September 28 and October 6, components associated with natural dust accounted for 52–78% of the samples, averaging 64%. On October 13–14, the share of these components ranged from 47% to 52%.
During the briefing, officials outlined measures being implemented to reduce atmospheric pollution. A Special Commission for improving atmospheric air quality was established under a presidential decree issued on November 24, 2025. Large construction sites are now required to install water-spraying systems, wheel-washing equipment and air monitoring stations.
The Air Monitoring Uzbekistan network and an early warning system for elevated pollution levels have also been established. Under the nationwide Clean Air project for 2026–2030, Uzbekistan plans to reduce total atmospheric emissions by 10.5% and transport-related emissions by 10%. Another target is to reduce the number of days in Tashkent when PM2.5 concentrations exceed established standards by 35% by 2030.
According to the Hydrometeorological Research Institute, the average daily PM2.5 concentration in Tashkent is forecast at 37 micrograms per cubic meter on October 21–22. For comparison, the corresponding daily concentrations last year were 91 and 77 micrograms per cubic meter, respectively. However, pollution levels may temporarily increase during evening and nighttime hours.
The institute forecasts that air quality during the 2026–2027 autumn-winter season will be better than during the previous season. The forecast is based on declining particulate matter concentrations throughout the year, plans to complete filter installations and implement measures for greenhouses by December 1, and the development of a strong El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. Nevertheless, short-term increases in pollution remain possible during periods of significant temperature inversion. Forecasts are therefore updated daily.
Despite the overall decline in particulate matter concentrations, air quality in Tashkent is expected to deteriorate during the night of October 21–22. According to the international AQI, pollution levels may reach the category classified as "unhealthy for sensitive groups." The forecast attributes the expected deterioration to weak winds, temperatures falling to 8.5°C and a strong temperature inversion. These conditions may cause pollutants to accumulate in the layer of air closest to the ground.