The Buffalo Bills are bringing a 4-1 record into Las Vegas for their game Sunday against the surprising 3-2 Raiders at Allegiant Stadium, and it’s hard to deny that they’re pretty fortunate to be sitting atop the AFC East.
Their gaudy record could be significantly worse if not for some huge breaks that have gone their way, the most recent being James Cook’s overtime fumble last Monday night being offset by Greg Rousseau’s blocked field goal, flipping the game in Buffalo’s favor and enabling Tyler Bass to walk it off.
Go back to opening day in Houston, Kamari Lassiter dropped an interception in the end zone that would have likely ended the Bills’ rally to victory, not to mention the C.J. Stroud's fumble inside the 10 in the dying seconds that saved the Bills from the blowing the lead Lassiter’s gift allowed them to take.
Lest we forget the five-turnover mess in the Chargers game that they survived because they were fortunate they were playing the Chargers that day.
“We’ve got a lot of things to clean up,” Joe Brady said after the Rams game, speaking of that game in particular, but really, for the entire season, knowing his team could just as easily be 1-4 as it is 4-1.
As Josh Allen reminded us, though, 4-1 is 4-1 no matter how you get there. “We'll take them how we get them,” he said. “However ugly, however pretty it looks, we score more than them, we've done our job.”
The question is, will there be a point when the sloppiness on offense, or the ineptness on defense, will be too much to overcome, and could that be Sunday in Las Vegas against an upstart Raiders team that has been one of the most interesting teams early in the season under their own rookie head coach Klint Kubiak?
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Kirk Cousins
Allen was wondrous against the Rams, ripping off 121 yards on the ground and willing the Bills to that victory, and Kubiak knows his young defense is in for quite a test. “Yeah, very difficult,” Kubiak said. “He's an elite athlete, elite thrower, great instincts to know when to run, and definitely between (James) Cook and their quarterback those are two guys that can really hurt you with their legs.”
But through the air, the Bills have not been proficient and Allen said it’s something that needs to get figured out in a hurry, and he thinks he’s getting close. “Feel like I’m coming out here and throwing the ball well,” he said. “In that second half, I just kind of turned my mind off and played football and I think that’s kind of what it’s getting back to.”
Cousins joined the Raiders this year to be the bridge QB to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza who isn’t quite ready to be the starter. Cousins has started great, helping lead Las Vegas to three straight wins, which matched its entire total from 2025, though they have now dropped their last two to very good teams, the Chiefs and Patriots. He sits eighth in the league with 1,269 yards passing and is tied for second with 12 TDs.
The 38-year-old has been there and done that, and if the Bills don’t clean up some of their defensive faults, he could make them pay, especially if he gets time to throw.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
▶ RB Ty Johnson: Allen continually tells us that Johnson is the best third-down back in the league, and it’s getting harder to punch a hole in that theory. Since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 3, Johnson has made several key plays in the passing game, including a 40-yard catch last week and a big fourth-and-6 catch in the fourth quarter against the Chargers that set up the go-ahead TD. With Cook’s fumbling issues, Johnson could be in line for a little more work. He has 10 catches for 131 yards and six have resulted in first downs.
▶ WR Keon Coleman:D.J. Moore’s status remains uncertain and if he doesn’t play, Coleman has to give the Bills more than he did in Los Angeles when he caught just one pass, albeit for a touchdown. Obviously Dalton Kincaid’s disappearance has been hugely disappointing and it’s a big reason why, without a healthy Moore, the Bills’ passing game has been inconsistent. Coleman needs to be a difference-maker like he was in Week 4 against the Patriots to give Buffalo more of a downfield threat.
▶ LB Terrel Bernard: It is becoming more and more apparent that playing in the middle of the chaos at 224 pounds is not ideal for Bernard who continually gets banged up and never seems to be 100% healthy. Brady continues to defend Bernard, but his play simply hasn’t been good enough. He’s second on the team with 36 tackles, but only two of those have been for lost yardage and too many have been down the field. And what's puzzling is that despite his athleticism, he’s been used as a blitzer on just 15 snaps and has only three QB pressures. His lone memorable play was the fumble recovery that saved the Houston game.
▶ S Cole Bishop: In what was supposed to be an ascending season for Bishop, he seems to have regressed a bit from last year as he tries to find his niche in the new defense. Bishop is being used in the box much more in Jim Leonhard’s scheme (already 188 snaps compared to just 275 all of 2025) and it looks like he’s doing too much thinking and not enough attacking. He has no pass breakups and he’s allowed 16 receptions on 19 targets into his coverage for 145 yards and one touchdown, plus he got nailed for a pass interference in the end zone against the Rams which set up a TD.
Raiders who should impact the game
▶ TE Brock Bowers: He is exactly the tight end the Bills wish Kincaid could be. In just three games, he already has 24 catches of 32 targets for 312 yards and three TDs with seven catches on contested balls and no drops. That’s the fourth-most yards by a TE in their first three games of a season in NFL history, and Bowers also joined Rob Gronkowski in 2011 as the only TEs in NFL history with 80 receiving yards and a receiving TD in each of their first three games of a season. He is a nightmare matchup for any defense, but against this terrible Buffalo pass defense, Bowers could go crazy in a Puka Nacua kind of way.
▶ RT D.J. Glaze: The 2024 third-round pick has been one of the most effective pass protectors among all OTs as he has allowed just seven pressures and one sack on 208 pass block snaps, part of an O-line that has allowed just eight sacks which is sixth-fewest in the league. But Glaze has quite a task, as he’ll be going against Rousseau who does almost all of his pass rushing from the defensive left side. Rousseau has been a game-wrecker this season, so this is a big matchup to watch, especially since Cousins is not mobile.
▶ DB Taron Johnson: The longtime Bills nickel CB has been excellent in his first season with the Raiders. Among slot corners, he’s allowing a reception every 14.8 coverage snaps which is second-best in the league behind the slot CB the Bills just faced, Josh Wallace of the Rams. The Bills know him, but it’s probably more important that Johnson knows the Bills and how their targets like to run routes, so this feels like advantage Raiders.
▶ DE Maxx Crosby: One of the biggest aspects of the game is whether RT Spencer Brown will be able to play because like Rousseau, Crosby does the bulk of his pass rushing from the defensive left. Even if Brown plays, he may be hindered by the back injury he suffered in LA. If he doesn’t play, the Bills will go with inexperienced Tylan Grable who gave up five pressures on just 24 pass block snaps to the Rams. If Grable plays, the Bills will almost certainly have to devote TEs Dawson Knox or Jackson Hawes to help double-team Crosby, and that could impact the fluidity of the passing game.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 31, Raiders 23
Every week it seems like the Bills have been playing against a team that is loaded for bear. In Week 3 it was the winless Chargers desperate for a win, in Week 4 it was the 1-2 Patriots desperate for a win to stay within shouting distance of the Bills, and now in this game, they’re playing a team coming off a 28-point loss that will be looking to make amends for a truly terrible performance. And this time, the angry team playing Buffalo will be at home.
Of course, there will probably be as many Bills fans as Raiders fans in the stadium, but the point is still valid. The Bills’ defense will struggle with Bowers, and RB Ashton Jeanty could give them trouble, but the Raiders are a middle-of-the-road team on offense and if the Bills can generate pressure on Cousins, they should be able to get the job done.
As for the Raiders defense, it ranks 27th in yards allowed (377.0 per game) and 22nd in points (25.8) thanks to 17 TDs, which is tied for the fifth-most. If the Bills can stop making so many mistakes via turnovers and penalties, they should be able to control the game from start to finish.
Buffalo Bills 2026 schedule
- Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13 at Houston Texans, W 36-31.
- Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 17 vs. Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, W 24-16.
- Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4 vs. New England Patriots, L 26-29
- Week 5: Monday, Oct. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, W 37-34 OT
- Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 7: Bye Week
- Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
- Week 9: Monday, Nov.9 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
- Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6 at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 13: at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 15: Saturday, Dec. 19 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 16: Friday, Dec. 25 at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m.
- Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 18: TBD vs. New York Jets
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Raiders prediction, key matchups in crucial road test