The calendar has hit the Third Saturday in October, making it time for Alabama and Tennessee to renew their rivalry as college football kicks off its Week 7 action.
A pair of SEC blue bloods are both coming off troubling outings and looking for redemption. For Alabama, a loss to Georgia that hampers its playoff ambitions. For Tennessee, a sluggish win at Arkansas. Here’s what you need to know about the game.
Alabama’s challenge on offense
Alabama arrives looking to rebound from a narrow 20-17 home loss to Georgia, still averaging 44 points and 453 yards per game. Dual threat quarterback Keelon Russell has been efficient, completing nearly 68 percent of his passes for 1,599 yards with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
Russell also adds serious mobility with 225 rushing yards. He leads an offense that ranks fifth in the SEC in total efficiency, but could struggle early to find openings against a Tennessee secondary that ranks 16th in the country.
Tennessee can move on the ground
Tennessee relies heavily on its rushing attack, sitting fifth in FBS averaging 228 yards per game. DeSean Bishop has been outstanding with 678 yards and eight touchdowns with 6.3 yards per carry and can punish you in the trenches.
A lot goes through Bishop because the Vols still can’t move the ball in the air very well. They rank 111th, posting a meager 7 yards per play and under 187 yards per game. Alabama allows 3 yards per carry but sits among the worst nationally defending the pass. They’re just 103rd on that score, allowing almost 240 yards per game.
Key matchup to watch
On paper, Alabama’s formula is pretty simple: bottle Bishop, force the Vols into passing situations, and you should win.
The Tide leads the SEC in takeaways but have allowed some explosive plays at times. Tennessee must improve its passing efficiency to keep pace, while Alabama needs to protect Russell and limit turnovers after the physical Georgia game.
Computer models such as SP+ project a closer game than the betting market’s roughly 7.5- to 8.5-point spread, with Alabama favored by about four points in some systems and win probabilities near 60-70 percent.
Who wins, and why?
Alabama’s superior quarterback play and overall offensive balance should prove decisive.
While Tennessee can control the clock with Bishop and make things uncomfortable to start out, the Vols lack the consistent passing threat needed to match Alabama’s scoring pace over four quarters.
The Tide have the talent and experience to pull away or hold on in a competitive rivalry game.
The Big Lead Prediction: Alabama 30, Tennessee 23
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