Bitcoin Hits Weekly High as Crypto Market Rebounds

Bitcoin traders and hodlers are breathing this week after a pretty spooky start to the month with the historically best gains.

Bitcoin traded near $84,500 on Wednesday, up 2.5% over 24 hours, as the crypto market bounced back from a mid-October slide that pushed it below $80,000. The total crypto market capitalization, the combined value of every coin, rose 2.2% to $2.9 trillion.

Ethereum climbed 2.5% to $2,504, Solana gained 2.2% to $108.18 and BNB rose 2% to $749. XRP led the large caps with a 4.1% gain to $1.37, while Zcash jumped 11.2% to $1,332 and has now added 15.3% over seven days.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a 0-to-100 gauge where 0 means extreme fear and 100 means extreme greed, reads 55, which counts as neutral but is 3 points ahead of yesterday’s readings. In other words, it seems like traders have stopped panicking, but they are not yet chasing prices.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has swung between $97 and $112 a barrel this month and traded near $108 on Wednesday. The war with Iran keeps supply fears alive, and Washington rejected an Iranian plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in late September.

Oil matters to crypto because it feeds inflation. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, above the 3.6% economists expected and up from 3.4% in August. Higher inflation pushes up Treasury yields, the annual return investors demand for lending to the U.S. government. Government bonds paying more than 5% with almost no default risk pull money away from stocks and crypto, and higher rates make the borrowing behind leveraged trades costlier.

The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate sits at 3.75% to 4% after a September hike, and CME FedWatch gives about an eight-in-ten chance of a hold at the Oct. 28 meeting. Markets firmly expect a hike on Dec. 9.

Bitcoin price: Going up, but weak

On the daily chart, Bitcoin opened Wednesday at $82,928.80 and has reached $84,726.28, up 1.94% for the candle, after bouncing about 6% from this month's low near $79,711. Its current price is pressing up, trying to approach the natural resistance at $87,422.70.

Bitcoin’s latest rally ran from $62,763 to a September high of $87,422.70. That trend marked a strong support at $81,603. Bitcoin lost the level in the October dip and has now reclaimed it, with movement still in the upper side of its bounce..

The 50-day exponential moving average, an average of recent closing prices that gives more weight to the most recent days, sits near $80,782, above the 200-day moving average at about $76,084. A 50-day above the 200-day is the standard sign of an uptrend, and Bitcoin trades 4.6% above the shorter average.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which scores recent buying against selling on a 0-to-100 scale, reads 58.5. Readings above 50 mean buyers hold the edge, while 70 marks overbought territory, so momentum is not yet stretched but is moving towards a bullish mood.

The bullish scenario needs a daily close above $84,726, today's high, ideally with ADX—an indicator of a trend’s strength over time—climbing back above 25 to confirm a trend. That would open a natural target at around $86,090, and then the September high at $87,422.70.

Traders on Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, put the odds of Bitcoin touching $87,500 in October at 31%, down from 45% on Oct. 12. A $90,000 touch is priced at 18%.

A stall below $84,726 would keep Bitcoin inside the roughly $79,700 to $87,400 range that has held since late September, which fits an ADX under 20.

The bearish case starts with a daily close below $81,603. That would expose the 50-day EMA at $80,782, then the October low near $79,711, and the 200-day EMA at $76,084.