JAPAN · ANALYSIS
Key Facts
- —What is happening Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet support fell to 49.1% in a Kyodo News poll taken on 17 and 18 October 2026, the lowest Kyodo reading since she took office in October 2025.
- —Why it matters The drop followed the resignation of farm minister Kazuo Yana. Japan is a key US security partner in Asia, and a weaker leader can slow the defence agenda Washington wants.
- —The numbers Kyodo: 49.1% approval; 57.7% said Takaichi replaced Yana too late. NHK, October: 51%, its lowest monthly reading since she took office. In September, Jiji had her at 44.1% and Mainichi at 45%.
- —Who is who Takaichi leads the Liberal Democratic Party government. Toshimitsu Motegi (foreign minister) and Shinjiro Koizumi (defence minister) kept their posts in the 17 September reshuffle.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives a 4.2% chance that Takaichi is out as prime minister during 2026 (US$39,968 traded, as of 5:20 p.m. ET, 20 October 2026). Bets, not polls.
- —What it means for you For US investors and defence planners, the risk is slower follow-through on Japan’s defence spending and cost-sharing talks, not a break in the alliance.
Sanae Takaichi’s approval has slipped to 49.1% in one major poll, a warning for a prime minister whose defence plans matter to Washington. The alliance is not at risk, but her room to act is smaller.
Japan’s prime minister has less political credit than a month ago. A Kyodo News poll on 17 and 18 October put cabinet support at 49.1%, the lowest Kyodo reading since she took office in October 2025.
For US readers the question is simple: does a weaker leader in Tokyo change what Japan does with the US alliance? Our reading is that the direction holds, while the pace and the price of defence cooperation become harder to deliver.
What the Polls Show
Kyodo’s survey was taken on 17 and 18 October, days after Yana resigned. Support fell to 49.1%, and 57.7% of respondents said Takaichi’s decision to replace him came too late, while 81.5% said it was natural for him to quit.
Public broadcaster NHK’s October poll had approval at 51%, the lowest in its monthly series since the cabinet took office. Its disapproval rate rose 1 point to 32%.
Headlines that say support has fallen below 50% for the first time need care. Pollsters ask differently: in September Jiji Press had her at 44.1% before the reshuffle and Mainichi at 45% after it, while Nikkei found 62%.
The Yana Affair
Kazuo Yana stepped down as agriculture minister on Wednesday 14 October, the first minister to resign in Takaichi’s government. He had told supporters in May that road budgets had been sharply cut for two municipalities in his constituency, Nasukarasuyama City and Nakagawa Town, whose mayors had not backed him in the February election for the House of Representatives, Japan’s powerful lower house.
Takaichi said Yana offered to go to avoid disrupting parliamentary debate. The episode landed during an extraordinary Diet session in which she is seeking approval for a temporary sales tax cut on food and drink, and in which her coalition lacks a majority in the upper house.
The decline is tied to her slow response to the Yana affair, not to a vote on defence policy.
What It Means for the US Alliance
Japan’s foreign and defence ministers, Toshimitsu Motegi and Shinjiro Koizumi, kept their jobs when Takaichi reshuffled her cabinet on 17 September. That continuity at the top of the alliance portfolio is the strongest sign that policy will not swing.
The more realistic risk is delay. A prime minister with less public support has less room to press unpopular choices, such as how to pay for defence, or to accept new US requests on costs for American forces in Japan.
Our assessment: expect slower, more cautious delivery rather than a change of course. That is analysis, not a forecast from any government source.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, prices a 4.2% chance that Sanae Takaichi ceases to be prime minister at any point before the end of 2026. About US$39,968 had been traded on that market as of 5:20 p.m. ET on 20 October 2026.
Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, lists a market on her departure, with no contracts traded so far. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Scenarios
In the steady case, approval stabilises once the Yana affair fades and the food tax cut passes, and defence plans move on schedule. This needs two or three polls to confirm.
In the slow case, Takaichi keeps the alliance line but stretches timelines and bargains harder on costs. In the tipping case, a second scandal would raise the chance of a challenge from inside her own party.
What It Means for You
If you follow Japan as an investor or a US policy reader, the practical signal is predictability. Watch for delays in defence budget decisions and any wording change on cost-sharing, not for a break with Washington.
If you live or travel in Japan, there is no direct effect from the poll. It matters for the debates now in the Diet, such as the temporary tax cut on food.
What Is Not Known
We do not know whether support keeps falling after the resignation or recovers.
We also have no verified October figures for the defence budget plan, cost-sharing talks or the yen, so we do not draw conclusions on them.
What to Watch
The next two or three approval polls from Kyodo, NHK and others will show whether this is a dip or a trend. Votes on the food sales tax cut in the extraordinary Diet session are the next test of her coalition.
Also watch any change in defence and cost-sharing language from Tokyo, and whether a second scandal appears.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Takaichi’s approval rating fall?
A Kyodo poll on 17 and 18 October found 49.1% support. Respondents were critical of how long she took to replace agriculture minister Kazuo Yana, who resigned on 14 October.
Is this the first time her support has dropped below 50%?
No, not across all pollsters. Jiji Press had 44.1% in September before the reshuffle, and Mainichi 45% after it. Kyodo’s 49.1% is its lowest reading since she took office.
Is Takaichi’s government in danger of falling?
There is no sign of that in the polls we reviewed. Polymarket traders put the chance that she leaves office in 2026 at 4.2%, but these are bets, not forecasts from officials.
What does the approval slide mean for the US-Japan alliance?
The alliance team is unchanged, since Motegi and Koizumi kept their jobs. The risk is slower delivery on defence and cost-sharing, not a policy reversal.
Who is Kazuo Yana?
He was Japan’s agriculture minister until 14 October 2026. He resigned after remarks that road funding had been cut for municipalities whose mayors did not support him.