Tshwane braces for more coalition turbulence

Tshwane stands slightly in the shadows of the election campaigns in Johannesburg and other hotspots, given the prominence of Helen Zille and others.

Focusing more on Tshwane, it is taken for granted that its next local government will again be a coalition, but how it will materialise remains a matter of debate. Tshwane is one of the metropolitan councils that turned towards a coalition government in 2016.

This election will therefore signal a milestone of the ten years of coalition government. It has been interrupted by a period of provincial administrative intervention in the metro during the COVID-19 pandemic, with disastrous governance consequences in the city.

In 2021, the ANC received a majority of only five seats over the DA in the metro council. The EFF filled the third position, followed by ActionSA and Freedom Front Plus (FF+).

During 2021-23, the coalition consisted of the DA, ActionSA, FF+, IFP, COPE and the ACDP. When ActionSA defected from it, it joined the ANC, EFF and GOOD in a new coalition consisting of the Mayor (ActionSA),

Deputy Mayor (ANC), Speaker (African Transformation Movement) and a Mayoral Committee consisting of the ANC, ActionSA, EFF and GOOD. With the 2026 local government election (LGE), opinion polls indicate a decline in ANC support (possibly moving to the MK Party), with little-changing support levels for the ActionSA, EFF and FF+.

The difference between the ANC and DA will probably be about ten per cent in favour of the former. The result is a delicately balanced situation between two possible coalition formations, and the kingmaker in it will probably be ActionSA.

The core of a DA-led coalition would depend on ActionSA and FF+, while an ANC-led coalition would rely on ActionSA, EFF and MKP. It leaves ActionSA in a strong bargaining position, more so in the face of a weakened ANC.

Different scenarios might ultimately be influenced by which leading party can accumulate a cohort of small parties that can contribute collectively about ten per cent of the seats to replace ActionSA as a coalition partner. In such a scenario, the small parties might be the kingmakers.

Under such circumstances, in order to award positions to all of them, the definition of a coalition will have to be expanded to include the mayor and deputy mayor, ten mayoral committee members, speaker, chief whip and the chairpersons of Section 79 and other council committees.

Such a large coalition cluster will be difficult to manage, and therefore a comprehensive coalition agreement will be required.

The Local Government: Municipal Structures Act allows only two weeks to negotiate such an agreement and to elect the office-bearers. An amendment to the Act, known informally as the Coalition Bill, is currently in Parliament but will not be finalised before the LGE and therefore will not be applicable during the next 5-year term.

The amendment intends to extend the negotiation period by another two weeks and will require a formal coalition agreement to be published in the provincial gazette to be binding on all the parties. It also wants to limit the number of no-confidence motions in 12 months.

Given all these dynamics, it will require astute negotiation skills to make a choice between ActionSA as a partner and a cohort of small parties. Ideally speaking, a coalition should be as small as possible, consisting of the biggest parties. It normally results in more coalition stability. In this respect, a DA/ANC coalition would be the best option.

That would amount to a grand coalition, consisting of the biggest parties whose options are limited and who have to cooperate with each other, similar to the German coalitions during the Merkel era.

Though the ANC and DA constitute the core of the GNU, such a coalition combination does not exist yet at the metro level. What is also a factor is that the ANC’s Gauteng provincial leadership (including Premier Lesufi) are against it and prefers a relationship with the EFF and ActionSA.

The situation with respect to MKP is not yet clear. The DA might also be divided on such an option. The ANC’s recent track record is problematic for them.

The Madlanga Commission has exposed serious criminal and unethical practices in the Tshwane administration, including the Chief Financial Officer, the Metro Police, and the relationships of Kat Matlala, Joe Sebanyoni, Sargent Nkosi and others with municipal officials.

A clean break with this history is required in Tshwane.

After the 2026 LGE, the situation in Tshwane will probably be finely balanced, and it will require a type of political leadership which accepts that the national political landscape is changing in many respects.

Public opinion is highly critical and sceptical of all politicians, and the public trust in official institutions is low. Only the politicians who can adapt to this emerging, new environment will ultimately be successful.

The poor governance record of local authorities is partly a party-political problem; partly the result of dramatic social changes, such as urbanisation; and partly a problem of how the South African state is structured.

Fiscal reform to increase the national contribution to municipal government and the cooperative government model with respect to provincial and local governments must be reformed. Urbanisation, which makes large parts of metros informal, must become a national priority.

These matters cannot be left to the newly elected local political leaders.

* Kotzé is based at the Department of Political Sciences, Unisa.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Media Group.