Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The global civil aviation services market is expected to double over the next 20 years, reaching US$422 billion by 2045, according to Airbus.
The company presented the forecast on 14 October in Toulouse as part of its annual Global Services Forecast for 2026–2045, Airbus’s press service reported.
The market is estimated at US$209 billion in 2026, serving a fleet of more than 29,000 aircraft. It is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.8% through 2045.
Demand will rise alongside the expansion of the global aircraft fleet. Airbus estimates that the number of passenger aircraft with at least 100 seats will increase from 23,310 in 2025 to 45,550 by 2045. Meeting this demand will require 42,060 new aircraft: 22,240 to expand the fleet and another 19,820 to replace aircraft being retired.
Passenger traffic is also expected to double over the same period, reaching 10 billion passengers.
Fleet expansion will require a substantial increase in aviation personnel. Over the next two decades, the industry will need 730,000 aircraft technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew members, bringing the total to more than 2.44 million new professionals.
Airbus says the industry needs to do more to attract and train young talent. The aviation training market is forecast to grow from US$10 billion to US$17 billion, at an average annual rate of 3.1%, while demand for full-flight simulator hours is expected to double.
Third-party maintenance, particularly shop visits for engine and component repairs, will remain the largest market segment. Its value is projected to increase from US$109 billion to US$217 billion, representing average annual growth of 3.7%. Airbus attributes this expansion to an increase in workshop repairs as the global fleet grows and aircraft age.
The second-largest segment will be a new category covering maintenance operations support, including timely spare-parts supply and engineering assistance. This market is expected to grow from US$46 billion to US$104 billion, at an annual rate of 4.3%.
Digital solutions and onboard connectivity are forecast to be the fastest-growing segment. The market is expected to nearly triple, from US$10 billion to US$27 billion, with average annual growth of 5.3%.
According to Airbus, by 2045 these solutions could help airlines reduce costs associated with flight delays and cancellations by up to 30%. Such costs are currently estimated at US$80 billion.
Line maintenance, covering activities ranging from light inspections to more extensive maintenance work, is projected to grow from US$21 billion to US$36 billion. The market for aircraft modifications and upgrades, including refurbishing the cabins of older aircraft, is expected to increase from US$13 billion to US$21 billion.
The report also highlights the secondary market for aircraft components. More than 18,400 aircraft are expected to be retired by 2045, while demand for serviceable used components could reach US$60 billion. Airbus says this market could help ease supply disruptions affecting new parts.
“As the global fleet doubles and exceeds 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to be ready. Airbus is expanding its role as an integrated services partner, supporting customers throughout the entire aircraft lifecycle,” said Cristina Aguilar Grider, Airbus Senior Vice President for Customer Services in the commercial aircraft business.
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), North America and China will remain the largest regional markets over the next 20 years. Demand in Europe and the CIS is projected to rise from US$52 billion to US$88 billion, while China’s market will expand from US$34 billion to US$78 billion. North America’s market is expected to grow from US$50 billion to US$75 billion.
The fastest growth is forecast in Asia. In South Asia, the market is expected to expand at an annual rate of 8.4%, increasing from US$6 billion to US$28 billion. Demand in the Middle East and Africa is projected to rise from US$23 billion to US$59 billion, while Latin America’s market will double from US$12 billion to US$24 billion.
The forecast is not tied to specific aircraft types. It covers passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighter aircraft with a payload capacity exceeding 10 tonnes.