Week 7 will be a good one! The slate is loaded with top 25 matchups all day and I'm betting a good bit of them, including Ohio State at Indiana, Alabama at Tennessee, Mississippi State at LSU and more! Let's try to build off a 5-2-1 Week 6! Game odds only are courtesy of DraftKings. Here are my seven best bets for Saturday of the Week 7 slate in College Football. Best of luck!
#4 Ohio State (-3) at #5 Indiana: O/U 50.5
Indiana almost caught in a look-ahead spot at Nebraska as the Hoosiers have been playing with fire over the last month. While I lean Ohio State ML/-3 in this matchup, I think the best bet is on Indiana's Josh Hoover. I like Hoover to go Over 26.5 Pass Attempts at -117 odds and his alternate line of 30-plus for +210 odds. Shop around because there are a lot of different lines out there.
Hoover has thrown 27 or more passes in two out of six games and two of the past three (vs Northwestern, At Rutgers). Hoover would have likely went Over that total against Nebraska last week if not for two explosive touchdown plays from Nick Marsh. This Ohio State defense should force Hoover to throw 30-plus times because running the ball on first and second downs won’t suffice. When you look at opposing quarterbacks, Ball State (33), Texas (37), Illinois (37), and Iowa (27) all saw 27-plus pass attempts with Maryland (25) and Kent State (15) going Under. I think Hoover and Indiana throw the ball more than 27 times here, so I will take Hoover to go Over his pass attempts prop and think he's a fun ladder up to 34, which ranges from +373 to +600.
Pick: Josh Over 27+ Pass Attempts (1 unit), Hoover 30+ Pass Attempts (0.5 units), Hoover 32+ Pass Attempts (0.25 units), Hoover 34+ Pass Attempts (0.25 units)
#16 Mississippi State at #22 LSU (-17.5): O/U 55.5
Well, this game was supposed to be full of fireworks and points, but I am not so sure anymore. Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell are doubtful for Mississippi State, so fresh off the bey week they go to Death Valley without their staring quarterback and running back. I did want to play the Over 57.5, but it's starting to creep down. The best bet here will be fading the Bulldogs offense and going Under the 19.5 team total. At home, LSU has held Clemson (10), Louisiana Tech (14), Texas A&M (6), and McNeese (14) all to 14 or fewer points to start the Lane Kiffin era. LSU's also scored 35-plus points in all four home games. It's either you back LSU to go over their team total of 36.5 or Under Mississippi State's 19.5 team total.
Pick: Mississippi State Team Total Under 19.5 (1 unit)
Florida at #7 Texas (-11.5): O/U 50.5
Florida is not who we thought they were and Arch Manning is not who we thought he was — and this game’s hype is not what it once was after Florida lost two straight and Texas lost to Oklahoma.
Nonetheless, it has the potential of being a great game. When I look at this game, Texas’ pass rush should disrupt everything Florida wants to do unless they get rid of the ball in 2-3 seconds. With Aaron Philo likely out, Florida will be rolling with a backup quarterback (Trammel Jones), which is bad news on the road against the Longhorns. Oklahoma had two runs over 10 yards against Texas, so Jadan Baugh, who’s been basically nonexistent over the last 2 weeks, has to show up. This starts a stretch of three-straight SEC home games for Texas, so it’s probably a good spot to buy a bounce back for Texas to some degree.
I think the best bet here is Florida 1H Team Total Under 9.5 for plus-money. The Gators scored 10 points in the first half of the last two games, and unless they make a QB change at halftime or somehow figure out how to get the running game going early, I have to believe this Florida offense will struggle and Texas will come out swinging on the defensive end.
Pick: Florida 1H Team Total Under 9.5 (1 unit)
Alabama (-7.5) at Tennessee: O/U 50.5
Not only is Alabama coming off a physical loss to Georgia, they are going to Knoxville without tatie starting center (Racin Delgatty) and star wide receiver (Ryan Coleman-Williams). The offense was likely going to face some issues regardless versus a Tennessee defense that's allowed 24 points or less in every game this season.
For Tennessee's offense, it's their second game without Faizon Brandon at quarterback, so George MacIntyre will make his second consecutive start. MacIntyre had two picks last week against Arkansas and cannot be trusted versus Alabama. The main focus for Tennessee will be to hand the ball over to DeSean Bishop as much as possible. Bishop's ran for 358 yards in the last two games and Tennessee's run game has found success against Kalen DeBoer's defenses the past two years. I'd expect both teams to establish a ground game and the physicality of this game to cash the Under.
Pick: Under 51.5 (1 unit)
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#2 Notre Dame (-10.5) at #8 BYU: O/U 47.5
With LJ Martin out, I am concerned on what BYU’s offense will be able to do and how reliant it will be on Bear Bachmeier to move the ball with his arms and legs. The Cougars looked great against Iowa State, but Notre Dame is a top three defense in the country and will give BYU problems. BYU’s scored 28 or fewer in all three conference games and getting to 20 should be a struggle here. Notre Dame hasn’t played a defense this tough since Wisconsin, so we cannot expect too many explosive plays, especially since BYU’s allowed 10 total second-half points in conference play.
BYU is 8-2 to the Under in the last 10 against ranked opponents and 4-1 in the past five as a home underdog. These two teams rank top 10 in opponent points per game at 11.0 and 13.4. I think we should trust the defenses and go Under the game total.
Pick: Under 47.5 (1 unit)
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Wisconsin at #12 UCLA (-2.5): O/U 42.5
UCLA will start quarterback Ty Dieffenbach after Nico Iamaleava suffered a season-ending injury. Now is not the time to be switching quarterbacks as UCLA's been on a heater and welcomes a nasty Wisconsin defense comes to town. The Badgers defense will be the best unit in this game and they've seemingly gotten better each week since losing to Notre Dame. Over the last five quarters, Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 45-3, so they're playing some quality football during a four-game winning streak. After UCLA beat Oregon and loses its quarterback, it seems like that was climax of the storied season. I am taking Wisconsin to cover, but we probably won't need the points.
Pick: Wisconsin +2.5 (1 unit)
#11 Utah (-14.5) at Colorado: O/U 49.5
I hope the gravy train is still running this week. Utah's first quarter defense is flying under the radar this season. In five games, Utah has allowed three first quarter points for a 0.8 1Q PPG, ranking third in the country. The Utes offense averages 12.8 first quarter points per game on offense, ranking second behind only Ohio State, so Utah has been elite in the opening frame.
Colorado's offense on the other hand is averaging 2.5 points in the first quarter (T-113th), but the defense is giving up 2.5 1Q PPG, ranking tied for 13th. Sounds like a rock fight to me. We know Colorado has had its quarterback issues all season and I see this game being no different. While Colorado's scored all 10 of their first quarter points against P4 teams in the last two games at Baylor (3) and versus Texas Tech (7) — I am expecting that to end here versus Utah. I am running it back on the Utes defense and taking Colorado to go Under 2.5 points in the first quarter.
Pick: Colorado 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 34-27-1 +4.17 units
Week 0 Record: 1-2 -1.57 units
Week 1 Record: 6-4 +0.96 units
Week 2 Record: 4-5 -0.97 units
Week 3 Record: 8-1 +6.8 units
Week 4 Record: 7-7 -0.22 units
Week 5 Record: 3-6 -3.77 units
Week 6 Record: 5-2-1 +2.94 units
Week 7 Picks
1 unit: Notre Dame vs BYU Under 47.5 (-110)
1 unit: Florida 1H Team Total Under 9.5 (+100)
1 unit: Tennessee vs Alabama Under 51.5 (-120)
1 unit: Wisconsin +2.5 (-105)
1 unit: Mississippi State Team Total Under 19.5 (-113)
1 unit: Colorado 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (-105)
1 unit: Josh Hoover 27+ Pass Attempts (-117)
0.5 units: Josh Hoover 30+ Pass Attempts (+210)
0.25 units: Josh Hoover 32+ Pass Attempts (+350)
0.25 units: Josh Hoover 34+ Pass Attempts (+600)
Week 7 Articles
Week 7 Heisman Trophy Rankings
Week 7 Top 25 Rankings
Missouri vs Ole Miss Game Preview
Alabama vs Tennessee Game Preview
LSU vs Mississippi State Game Preview
Ohio State vs Indiana Game Preview
Notre Dame vs BYU Game Preview
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