It wasn't that long ago that starting multiple Panthers in fantasy football would've felt like a pretty big gamble. Five games into the season, that's starting to change.
Bryce Young is averaging 309.8 passing yards per game, Chuba Hubbard has rushed for 242 yards over the last two weeks and Jalen Coker came back against Philadelphia and immediately saw 13 targets. Tetairoa McMillan still finished with 86 receiving yards of his own, so Coker's return didn't exactly slow him down.
That's what makes Sunday's game against Tampa Bay interesting from a fantasy standpoint. Carolina suddenly has several guys you can feel pretty good about putting in your lineup.
I took a look at what the fantasy experts are projecting for some of Carolina's top players and compared those numbers with what I think we'll actually see Sunday. I'm pretty close on a couple of them, but there are a few spots where I'm going higher.
Bryce Young: Have the projections caught up yet?
FantasyPros projection: 245.5 passing yards, 1.7 TDs, 0.7 INTs, 18.5 fantasy points
My projection: 275 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rushing yards
My fantasy projection: 18 points
FantasyPros and I end up in almost the exact same place on fantasy points. It's the passing yards where I have a hard time agreeing with them.
Young hasn't thrown for fewer than 281 yards in a game this season and is averaging 309.8 through five starts. I'm not saying he's going to throw for 300 every Sunday, but I'm also not ready to knock him all the way down into the 240s when we haven't seen anything close to that yet.
He completed only 20 of 39 passes against Philadelphia, and there were stretches where the offense couldn't get much going. Still, I thought Young played better against the Eagles than that completion percentage suggested, and he finished with 281 yards and two touchdowns.
Coker being back also gives me another reason to go higher on the yardage. He and McMillan combined for 22 targets and 183 yards against Philadelphia, and if Tampa Bay makes things difficult for Hubbard on the ground, Young may have to throw it quite a bit again. I'll take 275 yards and two touchdowns.
Jalen Coker: I'm going higher
Expert projection: Around 6 catches for 73 yards
My projection: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD
My fantasy projection: 14.5 standard | 20.5 PPR
Coker might be my favorite Panthers fantasy play this week. He hadn't played since Week 2, came back against Philadelphia and Young threw his way 13 times. He caught six of them for 97 yards, including a 32-yard catch on third-and-9 that helped keep Carolina's 94-yard touchdown drive alive.
That's why I'm willing to go a little higher than the experts. Carolina didn't spend much time easing Coker back into things, and Young clearly had no problem going right back to him.
The touchdown is where I'm taking a chance. He didn't get one against Philadelphia, but if the targets are anywhere close to what we saw last week, I like his chances of getting one Sunday. Six catches for 85 yards isn't that far from what the experts are expecting, but the touchdown would turn it into a pretty big fantasy day.
Tetairoa McMillan: Coker's return might actually help him
Expert projection: Around 6 catches for 72 yards and a TD
My projection: 7 catches, 90 yards
My fantasy projection: 9 standard | 16 PPR
I was curious to see what Coker's return would do to McMillan's numbers. McMillan had become Young's clear No. 1 receiver while Coker was out, so it made sense to wonder if some of those targets would disappear.
At least against Philadelphia, they didn't. McMillan still saw nine targets and caught six passes for 86 yards, while Coker had 13 targets and 97 yards. There was plenty to go around for both of them.
That's why I'm going a little higher on McMillan's yardage. He already has 471 yards through five games, so putting him around 90 against Tampa Bay doesn't feel like much of a stretch.
Where I'm going the other way is the touchdown. The expert projection gives him one and mine doesn't, which is a pretty big difference in a standard league. In PPR, I feel better about McMillan because I think the catches will be there, and if he does get into the end zone, I'll gladly be too low.
Chuba Hubbard: This matchup worries me a little
Expert projection: Around 14-15 PPR points
My projection: 19 carries, 78 yards; 3 catches, 22 yards
My fantasy projection: 10 standard | 13 PPR
If I were only looking at what Hubbard has done the last two weeks, I'd probably put another 100-yard rushing game next to his name and move on. He ran for 122 yards against New Orleans and followed it with 120 against Philadelphia, where Carolina gave him 28 carries.
Tampa Bay is what makes me back off a little. It's a tougher matchup on the ground, and I think there's a good chance Carolina has more success getting the ball to Young, Coker and McMillan than trying to run Hubbard into a tough front all afternoon.
That doesn't mean Hubbard won't get his touches. Carolina has shown it'll stick with him, and his work in the passing game gives him a little more value in PPR. I'm putting him right around 100 total yards and leaving off the touchdown, which puts me a little below the expert projections.
Of course, if Carolina gets down around the goal line and Hubbard punches one in, that changes things in a hurry.
The Panther I'd want most Sunday
If I'm picking one based strictly on fantasy value this week, give me Coker. Young might be the safer play, McMillan has been the more consistent receiver and Hubbard has spent the last two weeks running through people, but those 13 targets in Coker's first game back are hard for me to ignore.
What I really liked was that McMillan still got nine targets of his own. Maybe instead of Coker taking opportunities away from McMillan, we're starting to see what Young can do when he finally has both of them on the field.
That's probably the bigger fantasy story with this offense. Young is averaging more than 300 yards passing, Carolina just had two receivers go over 85 yards in the same game and Hubbard has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games.
Panthers players aren't just desperation fantasy starts anymore. I'm going a little higher than the experts on Coker and McMillan this week, and we'll see Sunday if they make me look smart.
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