US, Israel plan renewed Iran strikes after midterm elections, step up military exercises: sources

[WASHINGTON] The US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections, according to US officials and other people briefed on the deliberations.

As planning for a short but intensive operation progresses, the US and Israeli militaries have stepped up exercises, flying planes over Iraq to practice strike manoeuvres. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes, US officials said.

The targets would likely include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Some officials say one more big round of attacks could push Iran’s economy over the brink and force the country to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.

Still, there are reasons to be sceptical that a renewed war would be any more successful than the first phase of intense US-Israeli strikes between February and April. Those rounds of fighting drove up energy prices and inflation around the world, eroded security in the Middle East and severely strained the Pentagon’s supply of missile interceptors.

It is also far from certain US President Donald Trump will approve fresh strikes. Repeatedly in 2026 he has vetoed plans for a return to major combat operations, including in October when the US and Israeli militaries were nearly ready to attack.

All of the officials interviewed for this story spoke on condition of anonymity to candidly discuss military planning.

Iranian officials have promised to retaliate this time by expanding their targets beyond commercial ships and energy infrastructure in the region to data centres and underwater internet cables.

They say the fighting will be neither quick nor limited.

While the US is assembling a massive arsenal that will be fully in place by early November, diplomatic efforts have continued, as US negotiators use the potential return to war as leverage with Iran to make progress on their demands on its nuclear programme and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

So far, however, Iran’s negotiators have been unwilling to make concessions on the nuclear programme, insisting on deferring that issue until later in the talks.

Some US planners are convinced that an intensive three-day campaign could cause enough economic damage to change the Iranian position.

But US officials have frequently predicted Iran’s collapse, and other Western officials noted that Iran’s government has so far weathered the pressures on its economy.

“At this point in the war, what is clear is that the conventional military campaign waged to date, and the current punishing economic sanctions and American naval blockade, have not brought the regime back to the negotiating table in a meaningful way,” said Dana Stroul, who served as the Pentagon’s top Middle East policy official in the Biden administration.

Neither Trump nor Netanyahu “has made a compelling case for how more war would change this strategic dilemma in an increasingly unstable and conflict-ridden region”, said Stroul, who is now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Israeli, US elections may affect plans

Israel’s election on Tuesday could complicate the plans. If Netanyahu loses, he will become a caretaker prime minister, and it will be difficult for him to launch a war, experts say.

But some analysts believe that Netanyahu could leverage the prospect of an imminent joint US-Israel strike to pressure his rivals into joining a unity government to manage the war, which would extend his hold on power.

After Hamas attacked Israel on Oct 7, 2023, Netanyahu formed a unity government that brought some opposition members into a war Cabinet to help make national security decisions.

“He could use this to call for a broad emergency government, but he will face deep suspicion from his political rivals,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator and the author of a biography of Netanyahu.

“If Iran attacks, that’s one thing, but initiating an offensive strike would be extremely difficult for him.”

Officials say there is a small possibility that Trump could decide to begin a campaign in October, but there are many political reasons that he is likely to wait until after the US election, not least his own promise early in October not to strike before the vote.

The US will not have its full complement of military assets – including three aircraft carriers, thousands of marines, fighter jets and Special Operations forces – in place until early November.

The US military prefers to conduct attacks under the cover of night, and there will be increasing hours of darkness over Iran early in November.

There are also concerns that the war could spiral into a larger conflict. On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, as the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to attack sites there.

Trump keeping options open

A White House official said on Wednesday that the administration does not comment on military plans “that may or may not exist”. Trump, the official added, was keeping all options on the table to ensure that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons.

Some officials say the targeting will avoid refineries and oil infrastructure because Trump is eager to prevent even higher gas prices.

Both the US and Israel militaries are drafting plans for operations against Iran’s nuclear programme, according to people briefed on the work. That could include an attack on Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried nuclear site that Iranians call Kooh Kolang.

In each round of the war so far, Iran’s leadership has become less conciliatory, convinced that the ultimate US and Israeli goal is to topple its government.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains an enigma to US and Israeli intelligence officials. Some officials say he is not as powerful as his father, who was killed early in the war, and that hard-line members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard make key decisions.

Iran officials say Saudi oil refineries to be hit in retaliation if US attacks Pickaxe

Iranian officials say they are aware of the US war planning and have been developing their own new targets and tactics.

Peiman Salehi, a political analyst in Teheran, said that if Pickaxe is attacked, part of Iran’s plans to retaliate would be to strike major oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, including Aramco, because that would immediately spike oil and energy prices.

“The war has made us understand that the best leverage for pressuring Trump is increasing oil and energy prices because it will hurt the American people,” Salehi said. NYTIMES