With Ken Paxton’s race faltering, GOP looks for someone to blame

Texas’s Senate race is devolving into a blame game among Republicans weeks out from Election Day as the party’s nominee Ken Paxton faces a stream of negative headlines and Democrats grow increasingly confident about flipping the state.  

Republican tensions spilled into the public on Thursday when President Trump lashed out at incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove on Truth Social, accusing them of working to undermine Paxton.  

The Texas attorney general has been hit recently with a near-constant stream of negative headlines and declining poll numbers, presenting Democrats with a potential pickup opportunity.

“Trump ought to be encouraging turnout in Texas instead of laying blame on an outgoing senator,” said Chad Wilbanks, a Texas-based lobbyist and former executive director of the state’s Republican Party.

“It’s the name calling, it’s the bashing,” he continued, saying it’s coming from populist Republicans in Paxton’s coalition of supporters. “It really turns a lot of voters off, quite candidly.”

“They’re tired of the name-calling. They’re tired of the blaming,” he said.

The president on Thursday said that Cornyn, who lost to Paxton in a tense primary runoff, and Rove, former President George W. Bush’s White House adviser, “are doing everything possible to make it hard” for Paxton. 

Since his primary loss to Paxton in May, Cornyn has not campaigned alongside him, and Rove has backed a Democrat in a downballot race.  

“The primary wounds still haven’t healed,” said Dan Eberhart, a Paxton donor, describing the dynamic as “McConnell versus MAGA.” 

Cornyn’s 2014 campaign manager, Brendan Steinhauser, dismissed the notion that his former boss was behind any intraparty sniping ahead of Election Day.

“This is an indication that he thinks it’s very possible that Paxton could lose, and that he wants to make sure he gets ahead of that story, and says ‘this is not my fault. I did everything I could to help Ken Paxton,'” Steinhauser said.  

“If Sen. Cornyn had this much political power and influence, he would have simply reelected himself,” he said.  

When asked for his response to the president’s comments, Cornyn’s former senior campaign adviser Matt Mackowick quoted a line from the 1996 action move “The Rock.”

“Losers always b—- about having their best. Winners go out and f— the prom queen,” Mackowick said.

Republicans have the homefield advantage in Texas, which voted for Trump by big margins in each of his three presidential elections, and where the GOP has dominated statewide seats for decades.

But Paxton’s controversy-laden bid, coupled with a strong campaign from Talarico, has put Republicans on defense in the red stronghold.  

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) rates the race a toss-up, with Talarico narrowly favored to win. After three new polls last week showed the Democrat leading Paxton, Talarico is leading by 2 percentage points in DDHQ’s polling averages.  

Trump made Paxton a focus of both of his addresses at the RNC’s midterm convention last month in Dallas, and the president and vice president have both visited the state multiple times since to rally Texas Republicans.

Paxton, though, said the convention “dropped our numbers,” according to audio leaked by the New York Times last month, which was among a string of leaks that have ruffled Republicans. 

Politico also obtained audio in which Paxton admitted that his Texas campaign is being run by Washington, saying, “I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign.” And in a clip obtained by Axios, Paxton said affordability is “why we’re having a hard time with numbers.”

As Paxton trails in the polls, money is flooding into the race.  

Talarico reported a staggering $64 million haul this summer, saying it’s the biggest third-quarter pull by any Senate candidate.  

Paxton reported $18 million in the same period. Trump’s MAGA Inc. dropped $10 million into the race in early September, and tech mogul Elon Musk poured $158 million into a super PAC backing the Republican, according to new filings.

Total ad spending has topped $500 million, according to AdImpact, with Republican advertisers accounting for more than half that amount.  

Spending has been a source of debate among Republicans, with some arguing that Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc.  waited too long to put their massive war chest to use in the state.  

“I wish they would have started earlier,” Eberhart said. “I think the cavalry arrived just in the nick of time.”

Republicans predict that Paxton will see a boost in the polls given the flood of cash meant to support him in the race.  

“Ultimately, we think we will be successful,” said one GOP source.

But not all Republicans are as optimistic that money alone can save Paxton. Some say he may have to ultimately rely on the state’s incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who is facing a competitive reelection bid himself.

“It’s on Abbott to carry Paxton over the finish line,” Eberhart said. “And if he wins, he owes Abbott a Texas-sized thank-you card.”

But Abbott is largely running his own state-level race and has the advantage of being at least somewhat more insulated from the woes facing federal Republican candidates.

Abbott notably did not campaign with Trump and Paxton last week in San Antonio, citing a scheduling conflict.

Against that backdrop, Paxton has also ignored calls from both Talarico and Trump for a debate between the Senate rivals.  

The three-term attorney general avoided debating his Democratic opponents during each of his runs for the top prosecutor’s office, but this year’s Senate race is a more high-profile, neck-and-neck contest.  

“I don’t think Ken Paxton’s ever debated, so it’s not really a shock that that has kind of continued. And it just means that he probably doesn’t think that he’s the best debater, and it’s not one of his strong suits,” said Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan and the editor of several books about political debates and speeches.

Trump has openly and repeatedly said that he doesn’t “like the way Ken dresses,” “talks” or “looks,” even as he urges voters to back the Senate hopeful.  

Paxton may be weighing the “opportunity cost” to participate against Talarico, whose speaking style has been hailed by his own party, Kall said.  

But there’s also a downside to not stepping on the debate stage, Kall added. “Generally, it’s a sign of weakness in that you’re kind of declining this invitation or opportunity, and [can] mean you’re not really comfortable in your skills and ability to articulate positions and defend yourself.” 

Talarico debated Texas voters in a solo appearance at a CNN-Jubilee town hall last week, with the outlet noting that Paxton had yet to respond to the invitation to participate.

When Talarico was away from the campaign trail with the flu at the start of the month, according to the campaign, Trump said on Truth Social that the Democrat should “immediately report to a debate stage” against Paxton, who he said was “ready, willing, and able.” 

Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), a top Paxton surrogate, said on Fox News on Thursday that a debate “would certainly be enlightening” and that he’d “love to see that contrast in front of voters very clear.”  

“I guess this is just the Sturm und Drang of a competitive, close Senate race,” Texas Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo said of Trump’s finger-pointing amid the fundraising surge and tight polling.  

“Should Paxton lose — not so sure he’s going to — plenty of blame to go around.”