Elon Musk has renewed discussion of a possible Tesla-SpaceX merger after sharing updates about the companies and predicting that his rocket business could reach a USD 100 trillion valuation within a decade. Prediction-market traders have increased their bets on a deal, although neither company has announced an agreement.
The renewed attention follows Tesla’s demonstration of its next-generation Roadster, which uses technology developed with SpaceX. The companies unveiled the vehicle at a SpaceX facility in Texas on October 15.
Kalshi Traders Put Tesla-SpaceX Merger Odds at 70%
On October 15, Kalshi market data showed a 70% chance of a Tesla-SpaceX merger before 2028. Contracts for earlier deadlines carried lower probabilities, showing that traders were less certain about an announcement in the coming months.
These figures reflect the prices people pay for prediction-market contracts, not a company decision. Kalshi requires a formal announcement of a binding agreement before a merger contract can settle as successful. Comments about cooperation or possible future plans do not meet that standard.
Musk has previously discussed bringing his businesses closer together. The latest Roadster demonstration gave investors another example of their cooperation, using SpaceX-designed thrusters to help the electric car perform brief airborne movements. Tesla expects Roadster production to begin in 2028.
Barclays Outlines a Possible Merger Timeline
Barclays analysts led by Dan Levy have raised the possibility of a merger announcement before Tesla’s next annual shareholder meeting, expected no later than December 6. Their analysis identifies artificial intelligence and shared manufacturing projects as reasons the companies might combine.
One project is Terafab, a proposed semiconductor effort involving Tesla, SpaceX and xAI. The analysts argue that a single corporate structure could simplify decisions around chip production and spending. Tesla’s robotaxi and Optimus programs could work more closely with SpaceX’s software and computing operations.
Any proposed deal would require the companies to settle their structure, valuations and voting rights. Shareholders would need information on the terms before deciding whether to approve a combination.
Separately, Musk wrote on X that SpaceX would ‘probably’ exceed a USD 100 trillion valuation within ten years, unless a major world war occurs. He was responding to investor Ron Baron’s lower forecast of USD 20 trillion to USD 50 trillion. The comment was a valuation prediction, not a merger announcement.
A Combined Company Would Hold More than 30,000 Bitcoin
A merger would bring the companies’ Bitcoin reserves under one corporate group. SpaceX's disclosed Bitcoin holdings stood at 18,712 BTC, while Tesla reported 11,509 BTC. Based on those figures, the two businesses together would hold 30,221 BTC.
Tesla kept its Bitcoin holdings unchanged during the second quarter of 2026. SpaceX reported its reserve in filings linked to its public listing. The figures describe existing holdings rather than planned purchases connected to a potential merger. The June SpaceX filing listed the Bitcoin reserve at an original cost of about USD 661 million. Tesla reported a USD 112 million after-tax digital asset loss for the second quarter, without selling its holdings.
Corporate Bitcoin accumulation has continued elsewhere. Strive recently reported buying 3,311 BTC, raising its holdings to 32,773 BTC. This places its reported balance above the amount Tesla and SpaceX would hold together.
For now, investors have no announced exchange ratio, transaction price or timetable for a Tesla-SpaceX combination. The Kalshi contracts track whether the companies announce a definitive agreement by their stated deadlines, rather than whether a completed merger has taken place.
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