After coming up short in a game where they had every opportunity to win against the Patriots, the Jets will look to bounce back in Week 7's matchup versus the Dolphins.
New York hasn't had much success against Miami in recent years, going 2-8 since 2020. However, the Dolphins hit the reset button this offseason and are in the midst of a major rebuild, going winless in their first five games.
Although the matchup appears favorable for the Jets, this won’t be a cakewalk. The hardest games to win are the division ones, and so far, New York is 0-7 against the AFC East in the Aaron Glenn era.
But if Gang Green can prioritize winning these three matchups, they’ll come away with a win against the Dolphins.
1. Jets’ run defense vs. Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon
De’Von Achane was one of the few talented players the Dolphins retained after undergoing a major offseason overhaul. With much of the roster gutted, the former 2023 third-round selection was expected to lead Miami’s offense after combining for over 1,800 scrimmage yards and earning a Pro Bowl selection.
However, those plans took a major hit when Achane suffered a torn ACL in Week 3, forcing the Dolphins to turn to second-year running back Ollie Gordon II to help fill the void. Over the last three games, Gordon has rushed for 229 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has scored a touchdown in each contest.
With Gordon stepping up in Achane’s absence and emerging as a key contributor to Miami’s offense, the Jets must prioritize limiting him. However, this will be a challenge for New York.
Despite shutting down the run in their first two games, giving up just 131 yards, Gang Green’s run defense has struggled mightily over the past four weeks, allowing 607 rushing yards. During this time, the Jets have gone 1-3, and in all three of their losses, the defense gave up over 100 rushing yards.
Meanwhile, New York’s lone win came when it held the Browns to just 94 rushing yards.
With the Dolphins lacking a functional passing attack, ranking 31st in passing yards per game (153.6), the Jets’ defense must focus on containing Gordon.
While the emphasis should be on clogging the gaps and maintaining outside leverage, New York’s defense should prioritize getting to and tackling Gordon early. He shares a similar play style to Braelon Allen, with both being physical, big-bodied runners who are hard to take down.
Like Allen, Gordon makes defenses pay for not tackling him early, as he’s had eight explosive rushes of 10 yards or more in the last three games. If the Jets can prevent him from breaking tackles and turning short gains into explosive plays, they can force Miami to rely more heavily on its struggling passing game.
That will be critical to slowing the Dolphins’ offense and giving New York a chance to come away with a win.
2. Garrett Wilson vs. Dolphins’ secondary
The Jets’ offensive game plan against the Dolphins should be simple: throw the ball to No. 5.
Garrett Wilson has been New York’s most productive receiver by a mile, leading the team in catches (35), receiving yards (418), and touchdowns (three). Trailing him is rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq, who’s hauled in 15 receptions for 158 yards and a touchdown.
When the Jets feed Wilson, they improve their chances of winning, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. When Wilson’s target share is over 29%, New York is 2-1, but when it’s below that mark, they are 0-3.
In New York’s two wins, Wilson averages 93 yards, whereas in the losses he averages 58.8.
With Gang Green’s offense going three straight games without scoring more than 20 points, offensive coordinator Frank Reich must prioritize getting the ball in Wilson’s hands early and often, especially against Miami’s weak pass defense.
The Dolphins rank 14th in passing yards allowed per game (219.2); however, they are tied for 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed (11) and rank 27th in yards gained per pass attempt (7.8).
Reich must optimize Wilson’s dynamic playmaking as he did against Cleveland. On the first drive, Wilson registered three catches (four targets) for 70 yards, ending the drive with a 32-yard touchdown.
Part of that success was Reich deploying Wilson all over the field, creating different looks and opportunities for the star receiver to make plays. That versatility should be a priority in this matchup, particularly by moving Wilson in the slot more frequently. In both of his 100-yard games, Wilson has logged double-digit snaps from the slot.
Moving him around to create favorable matchups and opportunities to make plays with the ball should be the primary focus against the Dolphins, especially because they don’t have a corner capable of containing Wilson.
3. Jets’ pass rush vs. Malik Willis
One area the Jets’ defense has improved in is generating pressure. Gang Green’s pass rush posted the second-fewest sacks (26) last season. This season, meanwhile, the unit is tied for fifth with 17 sacks.
As the head coach and defensive play-caller, Glenn, along with the team’s new additions, particularly No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, deserve credit for the team’s turnaround. With Glenn’s aggressive play-calling, New York ranks fifth in blitz rate (36%) and 10th in pressure rate (24.3%), consistently putting opposing quarterbacks under duress.
Bailey has played a significant part in this, leading the team in pressures (23) and sacks (5). The rookie edge rusher from Texas Tech had his breakout game in Week 5 against Cleveland, sacking quarterback Deshaun Watson three times and finishing with nine total pressures.
Against the Dolphins, however, Glenn must dial the blitzes down against quarterback Malik Willis. The former Titans and Packers quarterback has struggled this season, but his numbers have been poor when defenses don’t blitz.
When teams send pressure, he’s completed just 55.6% of his passes for a touchdown, posting an 84.3 passer rating. Against no blitz, Willis has completed 56.5% of his passes for a touchdown, throwing four interceptions and posting a 60 passer rating.
Willis’s struggles against four-man pressure are partially due to Miami’s difficulties creating separation. Besides Malik Washington, the Dolphins’ pass catchers have struggled to consistently get open. As a result, Willis has held the ball too long while trying to find an open receiver. Other times, he scrambles out of the pocket trying to make a play, only to be brought down before he can get back to the line of scrimmage.
Willis rarely throws the ball away, but to his credit, that stems from the team always being down and him trying to make a play. Although Miami’s offensive line deserves some of the blame, it isn’t responsible for all the sacks. Over five games, the unit has given up seven sacks, while the other seven come from Willis’ own wrongdoing.
While Glenn shouldn’t hesitate to blitz Willis, he should primarily focus on generating pressure with four pass rushers. This allows more defenders to drop into coverage and limit downfield opportunities.
With the Dolphins’ receiving corps unable to create separation, Willis could be forced to take shots, especially when they’re trailing. This could give New York’s secondary opportunities to come away with interceptions.
Glenn should save his creative blitzes for obvious passing situations, particularly third-and-long, when he can disguise them more effectively. Rushing four also allows the Jets to focus on containing Willis in the pocket and limiting his ability to hurt them with his legs. He already has 186 yards and two touchdowns on the ground this season.
Keeping Willis in the pocket and forcing him to make plays with his arm instead of his legs will be one of the critical keys to a win.
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