Spend any extended time around college football and you’ll quickly understand why it’s often labeled a cyclic sport.
SEC dominance gives way to a national title run by the Big Ten, before the fortunes of both conferences swap places in lording over everybody again. Big 12 offenses become en vogue before the league digs into being known for its stout defenses. Left to his own devices, Chip Kelly will break out the wing T like it’s 1982.
In few places is this circular nature more reliable than the coaching carousel. A boom cycle featuring a hefty amount of openings often gives way to a more fallow period of pink slips, while the trend of canning coaches early in the year flips on its head.
The last point is particularly apt as we hit the midway mark in college football with the onset of Week 7. In 2025, that was when James Franklin was fired by Penn State and we unsurprisingly learned UAB was moving on from the disastrous Trent Dilfer experiment. Brian Kelly was on deck at LSU. Three Power 4 schools (UCLA, Arkansas and Virginia Tech) were already open after making moves weeks earlier.
This year there’s been zero major movement. The combination of potential nine-figure coaching changes, the skyrocketing cost to fund rosters and enough upsets to cool several hot seats has led to the currently calm status quo. But big moves could be coming.
So, who is still on the knife’s edge? Who might be safe come Thanksgiving? Here is the latest intel from each conference.
ACC
You never want to say a decision involving more than $51 million comes down to just one play, but it seems like a single decision by Mike Norvell at Louisville last week might be where he lost his grip on the Florida State job. Bypassing a field goal to go up 17–0 on the Cardinals turned into an eventual 44–20 loss, which keeps the Seminoles winless on the road since 2023. They are .500 on the season going into the Miami game, and a blowout loss to their rivals would return his seat heat to maximum. The administration desperately would like to avoid paying that massive buyout and might have a pathway to it—a winning record isn’t out of the question given the rest of the ACC slate. Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium may prove pivotal for Norvell and the program.
Elsewhere in the league, will Dabo Swinney make staff/personnel changes to address increasing fan unrest and declining competitive standing? We’ll see what might transpire with Bill Belichick at North Carolina. The temperature has cooled after the resignation of unpopular general manager Michael Lombardi. The Tar Heels (3–2) are improved over last year—The Hoodie picked up his first victory over a ranked team this past Saturday against Pitt. A bowl bid might be all Belichick needs to move forward into 2027. Short of that, who knows—he’ll have just one year left on his deal after this season, with a relatively manageable $10 million buyout if there is some agitation to make a change after all the off-field issues. Would the school be fine with a lame-duck contract situation next year, or does the possibility of being one of the better jobs in a slow market lead to exploring a move come December?
Decisions will likely come at the end of the year on Boston College’s Bill O’Brien (11–19 in his third year) and Syracuse’s Fran Brown (15–15 in his third year, but declining returns after a big debut season). Keep an eye on NC State’s Dave Doeren. The tenor seems to have changed the last few weeks, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the long-tenured veteran finds a way to amicably part ways so both sides can start fresh next year.
Big 12
Dave Aranda had a piping hot seat coming into the season, but it has cooled considerably following a 4–1 start. He’s not fully out of the woods just yet given how backloaded the schedule is (BYU, Texas Tech and Houston are all ranked foes to end the season), but trending well enough to make plans for an eighth season in Waco, Texas. He may be on his ninth life by then.
There is unrest with Sonny Dykes up the road at TCU, but it still seems like a premature reaction. The Horned Frogs are a disappointing 2–3, but coming off consecutive 9–4 seasons—and that run to the 2022 national championship game should still carry considerable weight. Dykes, 38–20 at the school, was also recently given a contract extension that carries a decent buyout as a deterrent. If impatience prevails, TCU could monitor the market before making a move. (Dykes and Aranda face each other Saturday in a rivalry that dates back to the Southwest Conference.)
One school which does not have the finances to make a move is Colorado, where Deion Sanders is looking at a $26 million buyout if a newer administration hits the reset button. The intoxicating Coach Prime buzz of his first two seasons leading the Buffaloes has faded, and it remains possible that he simply decides to retire, given his health issues.
Cincinnati’s Scott Satterfield may also be one to file away. The Bearcats started 4–0 but crashed badly in their first road game, at Arizona, and they play many of the top Big 12 teams in the latter half of the year. A lukewarm hire after an unpopular stint at Louisville, Satterfield is 19–23 at Cincy, just 10–19 in the league.
Big Ten
Lincoln Riley was notably reflective last Saturday after beating Penn State in front of a record-breaking crowd for the white out in State College, Pa., soaking up the atmosphere deep into the night at Beaver Stadium. Penn State isn’t very good, but that victory seemed to lower the temperature a bit in Los Angeles, after it had spiked with the home loss to Oregon. USC sits at 6–1 heading into the first of two off weeks. His buyout remains a jumbo number, in the Jimbo Fisher–esque neighborhood of $70 million, with additional staff salaries that would push the tab even higher. While that figure would cause just about every school to balk, it would not deter some at USC and a change has not been ruled out. After an open date this week, a trip to Wisconsin looms large for both coaches (see below). Riley might have to beat either Ohio State or Indiana to make the College Football Playoff, which was deemed a realistic goal coming into the season.
Meanwhile, Maryland and Rutgers are set to play each other Saturday in College Park, Md., and it has a real loser-leaves-town feel. (Or, more precisely, leaves job.) All signs point to the Terps moving on from Mike Locksley at some point, while the Scarlet Knights are in a more interesting situation with Greg Schiano. He’ll be owed nearly $19 million, a big number given the debt the athletic department is already servicing. The administration, which did not hire Schiano, really wants to find a way to start winning. Schiano is still well-liked by enough people in the Rutgers community, but losing badly to FBS doormat Massachusetts and winning no more than a single Big Ten game this season might be too much to take.
Finally, resurgent Wisconsin (4–1) remains a fascinating test case, with a new athletic director (Shawn Eichorst) who hasn’t gone through a full winter on the job. The back end of the schedule is soft enough to allow Luke Fickell to win eight games, but it might be worth checking back after three consecutive top-20 opponents—at UCLA, home against USC and at Iowa—to end October. That stretch could heavily influence whether Fickell is back for a sixth season.
SEC
After four coaching changes last year, it’s a quieter carousel in what is traditionally the most volatile conference. South Carolina could be where the action is.
Shane Beamer has mastered the art of the restorative upset in his six-year tenure there, and beating Florida in the Swamp last week certainly qualifies as another one. But it may take another upset or two for the Gamecocks (3–3) to reach a bowl game. That makes for an interesting decision, with a disconnect between the money being spent on key players, like quarterback LaNorris Sellers and edge rusher Dylan Stewart, and the results on the field. Parting ways with Beamer could cost nearly $23 million, but the school may have to consider it if this season ends badly.
Group of 6
Money remains extremely tight in the Group of 6 ranks as schools try to scrape together an NIL budget, but there might be a few spots that come open. Several industry sources noted the trend could continue where G6 head coaches jump to become coordinators at power programs, given the salary and resource disparity between levels, so don’t be shocked if some gigs wind up opening that few saw coming.
Northern Illinois is already in the market after losing head coach Thomas Hammock to an assistant role in the NFL, and more could follow in the MAC. That goes beyond Western Michigan, which will have to fight hard to keep Lance Taylor given his viability as a Power 4 head coach candidate. Things also seem in flux at a number of places in the Sun Belt and Conference USA, where decisions could come down to whether there’s enough money to be raised for buyouts. It’s worth monitoring Georgia Southern in particular, given the high expectations and the fact that fifth-year coach Clay Helton has just one winning season in league play. But Helton was extended last year through the 2029 season, so the Eagles may kick the can down the road into ’27.
Similarly, things are tight in terms of resources at Charlotte, but a fairly new athletic director combined with a program that is simply not competitive in the American could trigger change. Tim Albin has only been there a year and a half, but it’s been miserable—the 49ers are 1–17 and look like the worst FBS team in the country so far.
Finally, there’s also growing intrigue around Nevada. Jeff Choate has won only seven games across three seasons, and there has not been much progress shown. There are unanswered questions about the future of AD Stephanie Rempe, and Wolf Pack men’s basketball coach Steve Alford recently announced he was stepping away after this coming season. That’s a lot of potential change in Reno, but don’t rule out a complete reboot.
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