The waiver wire has become a key part of the map to success in fantasy football. Four new teams head into bye week, featuring tight ends Dalton Kincaid, Brenton Strange, Oronde Gadsden II, and Chig Okonkwo. Two formidable targets are Pat Freiermuth and Hunter Henry. Today, we debate which player is the better roster addition.
The Case of Pat Freiermuth
Over six games, Freiermuth is averaging 4.7 targets, 3.5 receptions, 30 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns per game. He has a 13% target share and benefits from the Steelers' 2nd-highest pass rate of 66.2%.
In terms of route running, Freiermuth is the second-best receiver on the team. The red zone is where he does his best work. He leads the team with five red zone targets and scores. He has all four of his touchdowns there on a 25% red zone target share.
Given the prolonged absences of Roman Wilson and Michael Pittman Jr., Freiermuth continues to serve as Aaron Rodgers' No. 3 pass-catcher, trailing DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard.
In Week 6, Freiermuth ran 14 fewer routes than Bernard and 13 fewer than Metcalf. Freiermuth had 3 targets, while both Bernard and Metcalf had 12+.
The weekly projection for Freiermuth will rise from that season-long 13% target share. He will go forward with a 16-18% target share expectation.
This upcoming Sunday, the Steelers will take on the New Orleans Saints, a game that will be played in Paris, France.
The Saints rank 22nd in Fantasy Points Allowed to Tight Ends. They are stronger in their red zone defense, allowing 2 touchdowns through 6 games to the position. They are weaker in yards allowed to tight ends, permitting 71 per game, or the 7th most in the NFL.
The Case of Hunter Henry
Through six games of this season, Henry is averaging 3.7 targets, 3.2 receptions, 38 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. His target share is 13%, but unlike the Steelers, the Patriots run the ball at a high clip of 51.7%, the 7th-highest in the league.
Henry is running the most routes of any Patriot. Although that can be deceiving. AJ Brown missed four games. If Brown had played all six, he would pace to have a slight edge in routes run per game. Ultimately, Henry runs about as many routes as Romeo Doubs and Demario Douglas.
The red zone is where he leads the team in targets, and he can lead with four. One of his two touchdowns this season has been in the red zone, and Henry's target share in that area is about 18%.
Given Henry's limited volume, he relies heavily on a good matchup. The Jets are statistically a tough matchup, and Henry found success against them, largely due to check-downs and the Jets' inability to generate a pass rush.
Week 7 will not work in his favor, as he will be battling the Bears, who rank 4th-best in Fantasy Points Allowed to Tight Ends. Specifically, Chicago allows 40 yards per game and has not allowed a touchdown to the position.
Who to Add: Pat Freiermuth or Hunter Henry?
The margin is thin between these two, and either can honestly come out on top in Week 7. However, we must pick one, and that man will be Pat Freiermuth.
The Steelers pass the ball about 20% more often than the Patriots. They have a better matchup ahead, and Freiermuth's role has been elevated due to teammate injuries.
In the red zone, Freiermuth had been a tad more efficient. In spite of heading overseas, I would worry little, as the travel affects both teams equally. Freiermuth is ultimately the sounder play in Week 7 fantasy football.
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