Patience of Labor MPs is beginning to wear thin as mid-term blues bite

For years, Anthony Albanese's ability to maintain discipline within Labor has been one of his greatest political strengths.

His MPs have largely kept their complaints private, accepted decisions made by a small group of senior figures and trusted the prime minister’s judgement.

But political loyalty is easier to maintain when a government is winning, and the patience of some Labor MPs is beginning to wear thin.

Albanese told his caucus colleagues this week that despite Labor's current struggles, its political fortunes would improve as the next election drew closer.

He revisited a favourite refrain, telling MPs the party would be "kicking with the wind in the fourth quarter".

It was the same self-assured confidence he projected when Labor was in the grips of a political slump at a similar point in the last parliamentary term.

Frustration builds for MPS

Having been vindicated so emphatically at the last election, Albanese has reason to trust his instinct.

But while the Voice referendum defeat and controversies over Qantas upgrades and the PM's Copacabana house were politically damaging, they were not as deeply felt by households as the economic pressures confronting them today.

High inflation was a major factor in Labor’s previous mid-term woes, but now the financial strain has become more entrenched and the political challenges harder to overcome

Labor MPs and senators are hearing all this and more as they move around their communities, and they are not happy about it.

The extent of caucus rancour cannot be exclusively judged through complaints aired anonymously through the media. But in recent weeks there has been a noticeable uptick in the frankness of private commentary volunteered by an increasingly broad cross section of Labor figures.

Their frustration is palpable and the subjects of the ire are varied.

Neither Albanese nor Treasurer Jim Chalmers fare particularly well, and there is widespread concern about the government’s economic predicament.

There remains strong internal support for Labor's attempt to tackle the inequity in Australia’s housing market where older home owners and investors have long held the advantage.

But anxiety about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates is at an all-time high.

Problems of Labor's own making

Labor has spent years acknowledging Australians are struggling with living costs and offering a raft of measures to ease their burden, from cheaper medicines and bulk billed GP appointments to income tax cuts and energy rebates.

Now, despite the public experiencing the same pressures, the government is asking voters to accept a very different economic prescription.

Labor is increasingly emphasising the need to restrain spending to help ease inflation, with Chalmers using a speech this year to reaffirm there would be "another new savings package by year's end".

Current petrol and diesel prices are about the same as they were in March this year when Labor temporarily halved the fuel excise.

Rates were lower, albeit inflation was substantially worse, when Labor introduced energy rebates and various other supports in its 2023 budget.

The economic rationale for restraint may be sound, but it is a much harder political argument for a government that has spent years presenting itself as the answer to household financial pressures.

But the caucus doldrums go beyond the persistent cost-of-living issues.

It's the problems that are of the government's own making that are considered the most infuriating.

Labor's fix for the Australian Tax Office decision to ban credit card payments for tax was only temporary, with the government still under pressure to find a permanent solution.

Stacked up with the capital gains tax changes, the minimum tax on trusts and the card surcharge issue, a picture is emerging of a government repeatedly being caught on the back foot.

There is internal anger at Chalmers, disbelief at some of the messaging and concern the government lacks a clear "agenda" for the remainder of the term.

Opponents face their own battles

Some Labor MPs view the level of caucus angst as disproportionate to the reality of the party's position.

The Coalition remains in disarray, One Nation is yet to face the scrutiny that comes with being a serious electoral contender, and the Greens are grappling with their own internal tensions.

Even if Labor's opponents manage to get their act together, the government still has time to recover.

There is a sense that the recent internal rumblings are the result of pent-up frustration that has built over the last year spent being a loyal backbencher.

Many MPs were willing to accept their largely powerless roles as "team players" when things were going well.

They are less inclined to sit quietly when they believe the government is making avoidable mistakes.

Punishing end to the year

The caucus knows last year's election result, where Labor did not lose a single seat, was exceptionally rare in Australian politics.

There is almost no chance that happens again, which means there are Labor MPs currently in parliament starting to consider the very real prospect of being out of a job in 18 months' time.

Albanese is attuned to these internal rumblings and has consistently proven adept at managing the forces that shape the caucus' mood.

The PM prizes orderly process, but the danger is in mistaking stagnation for stability.

A frontbench reshuffle is not only inevitable, but also necessary to reinvigorate the cabinet and bring new talent through the ranks.

Labor can ill-afford any malaise and is in dire need of fresh ideas to kick start productivity and capture voters' attention.

Not everyone can be winners, which means some on the frontbench will also have to embrace the role of "team player" and step back.

Albanese now faces a punishing end to the year, with little prospect of relief from the economic and political pressures weighing on his government.

The prime minister may be confident the conditions will favour Labor in time to secure victory, but his teammates out on the field are impatient for a clearer game plan.