Labour and the Conservatives respective moves to overhaul the triple lock and scrap inheritance taxes on family homes have received a stamp of approval from voters, new polling has shown.
The City AM/Freshwater Strategy survey has showed that the British public back major policies announced by the two biggest parties, putting insurgent groups such as Reform UK and the Greens under pressure to maintain momentum.
The most recent set of data put Labour further ahead of its rivals with 29 per cent of the vote share, compared to 23 per cent for Reform, which dropped two points in October. The Tories narrowed the gap between second and third place, securing 22 per cent of voters’ support.
A reset of public opinions reflects the impact that announcements at recent party conferences have had. At Labour’s party conference, Andy Burnham announced that the party would enter the next election on a pledge to drop the triple lock on pensions, which ensures that the state pension far outpaces workers’ average earnings growth over the long term.
Under a new proposal, the state pension will only rise by inflation or 2.5 per cent, and broadly equal a rise in wage growth over the long term. The changes could save about £15bn a year by 2040, according to government analysis, with Burnham saying that savings would be used to fund a new National Care Service.
Polling shows that 44 per cent of voters support a proposed change to the triple lock on pensions compared to 24 per cent who oppose the changes.
Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters are more likely to support the changes. Voters aged over 55 are more divided than those aged between 18 and 34.
Labour’s care service gets tepid reaction
Burnham’s pledge to create a free-at-the-point-of-use care service would also make about 33 per cent of people more likely to back Labour at an election and 20 per cent less likely. Nearly half of voters (44 per cent) said the major proposal would make “no difference”.
Research also showed strong support for the Conservatives’ pledge to remove inheritance taxes on family homes, a policy which economists estimate will cost about £6bn.
City AM/Freshwater Strategy figures showed that the majority of voters (55 per cent) backed the policy while about one third (32 per cent) strongly supported it.
Reform UK’s Robert Jenrick hit out at Kemi Badenoch for announcing the policy, saying in a speech that the Conservatives were “no longer a national party”.
“Kemi knows who her people are – She’s for millionaires, not Mansfield. The wealthy, not workers,” Jenrick said. However, polling showed that the majority of Reform voters (58 per cent) backed Badenoch’s pledge.
About 41 per cent of the Reform’s voters also said it would make them more likely to endorse the Conservatives at an election.
Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,235 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 9 – 11 October 2026. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data is weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.