Nigeria’s Quest for Economic Growth at 66: Learning lessons from East Asia and sustaining reform

By Terhemba Wuam

As Nigeria marks her 66th independence anniversary on 1 October 2026 and prepares for another circle of General Elections in early 2027, the country continues to contend with the challenge of how to facilitate a more prosperous future. In this essay, the example of the East Asian economies of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China is used to draw vital lessons for Nigeria’s growth agenda and reform process.

The economic transformation of the East Asian economies of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and China was dependent on a multifaceted set of factors which were a combination of their unique historical experiences and the policies that they consciously adopted, enacted, promoted and sustained.

Beginning with Japan, in the 19th century, and later Taiwan, South Korea and China in the twentieth century, East Asian countries successfully developed by focusing on economic growth as a key national strategy. In these countries, industrialisation that focused on supplying the world market became state policy.

The success recorded by Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China were based on their internal capacities and the ability to successfully copy the Western development model that had preceded them. Ultimately, the basis for their success was the human capital endowment of well-educated populations that they had assiduously cultivated for generations by disciplined and sustained investment in education.

The educated human capital of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China enabled them to produce more capable states, institutions and citizens. It was also the basis for their enhanced economic productivity that brought about the large-scale transformation that became known as economic “miracles”.

The miracle of economic development in these countries was made possible by factors such as: first, unified national histories that went back several centuries; second, educated and capable populations with a low dependency ratio that made it possible for the demographic dividend to be realised.

And the third and most important point was that both the historical endowment and the demographic composition were harnessed to pursue pro-capitalist and pro-growth policies by the East Asian states, which placed them in strong positions to implement export-driven industrialisation in the 20th century and reap the benefits of gradual and steady improvement in producing world-class products for the international market.

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It is necessary to point out that some of the factors that made it possible for East Asia to modernise and industrialise earlier were, indeed, missing in early post-colonial Nigeria. Examples of such factors include the absence of a history of a national state system in Nigeria prior to amalgamation, and the fact that after independence, an import-substitution policy which inhibited an outward export focus for Nigerian industrial and agricultural products was promoted, along with nationalisation policies that fostered broad negative outlook towards foreign investment.

Without a doubt, at independence, Nigeria, like other African countries, faced greater challenges than the East Asian countries. The challenges arose from a history of weak indigenous state capacity, a largely illiterate population and a focus on the economy that tended to look inward. However, 66 years later, it is now clear that Nigeria is better placed to utilise, develop and harness global knowledge, and science and technology for her development.

In 2026 and beyond, it is in Nigeria’s interest to promote an economic philosophy of openness, where the world is identified as a global market for Nigerian products. Such an orientation will enable policymakers and planners to promote Nigeria as an export-oriented economy. This will have the potential to encourage Nigerian enterprises to grow, expand and produce goods and services that can meet global standards and compete internationally.

The past 65 years of independence should therefore be seen as the age of laying the foundation for economic take-off. The example of East Asia shows that with the right policies and national focus, and in spite of short-term challenges, as Nigeria is witnessing, a progressive trend can take root and magnify.

It is now definitely time for the Nigerian economy to pick up and accelerate. State and institutions in Nigeria are becoming more effective, human capital is on the upswing and policies are aligning more to the conventional wisdom of market-friendly principles. Thus, the current economic reforms, along with market-friendly policies as promoted by capitalist creeds, which Nigeria for long considered unwise to adopt, need to be sustained. Nigeria cannot afford to flip-flop on the reform process. The positive example of East Asia shows what happens when pro-market policies are emphasised.

As Nigeria faces the future and the quest for economic development, state and national pragmatism in tackling the economy is required. Economic pragmatism should follow the established conventional wisdom which propelled first Europe, and the entire West and later East Asia to higher levels of economic productivity and the transformation of their societies to developed status. Nigeria needs more capitalism and economic reforms, not less.

For growth and development to occur and be sustained, it is essential for the Nigerian government to continue to promote and drive reforms. Importantly, too, as the economy stabilises and grows, government should take responsibility for more investment in public goods such as healthcare, education and infrastructure.

Furthermore, there is every reason for the government and people of Nigeria to begin to express great urgency in the process of playing catch-up with the rest of the world. A catch-up philosophy methodologically pursued has the potential to enable Nigeria’s rapid economic growth and potentially a GDP of $3 trillion by 2045.

Prof. Terhemba Wuam is Director, Centre for Kaduna Studies at Kaduna State University and a Senior Fellow with Effective Governance Research Institute. He is also President, Association for the United Asian Scholars, Nigeria. Email: [email protected].