Carles Puigdemont has spent almost nine years away from Spain. With a warrant out for his arrest, he risked prison if he set foot inside the country. Holed up in Brussels after a failed Catalan independence bid in 2017, he couldn’t go home when his parents died and missed both of their funerals. Last week, however, the Supreme Court gave the president of the Together for Catalonia (Junts) party a path back when it decided to provisionally lift the warrant against him. But the Catalonia that he left behind is a far cry from the one to which he might soon return.
A stroll through downtown Barcelona offers a glimpse of the region’s changes. The Estelada – Catalonia’s starred flag, which became a fixture on balconies in the run up to the 2017 referendum – is not as prominent as it once was. The mix of languages heard on the streets reflects a population with increasingly diverse backgrounds. Today more than a third of the city’s residents were born abroad, up from about a fifth in 2016.
The demographic changes put pressure on Catalan, a language that has long served as a cornerstone of the region’s national identity. Children are still compelled to learn it at school but it can feel increasingly disconnected from everyday life. Of course, Catalonia extends far beyond its capital and, in many of its smaller towns, symbols of national identity remain prominent. But even here, the fervour for independence appears to have cooled and Madrid is no longer cast as the demon that it once was.
The focus of conversations has changed too. Only a few years ago, a night out often led to a discussion with a stranger about the merits of Catalan independence. Later the conversations turned to Brexit and the parallels – and differences – between the two movements. These days, such comparisons rarely arise. Independence hasn’t disappeared from the political landscape but it seems to have lost its place as a subject of everyday conversation.
It’s not that grievances have disappeared: Rodalies de Catalunya commuter trains still run late and the argument about Madrid’s investment in Catalonia remains unresolved. What has changed is the political response. While these failures once helped to draw hundreds of thousands to the streets under the banner of Catalan self-determination, discontent today is focused elsewhere.
A key reason for this is the dominance of concerns other than abstract questions of identity or constitutional status: the cost of living and rising rent prices. Puigdemont’s party chose not to back the recent housing bill put forward by the embattled socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez – a decision that hardly suggests attunement with the concerns of ordinary Catalans. Meanwhile, the cause for independence has become more fragmented. Puigdemont might still command the loyalty of committed supporters but he can no longer rely on the movement to unite behind a shared vision.
The former Catalan government leader is yet to announce a date for his return. It will likely be less dramatic than his sneaky 2024 appearance in Barcelona, which was followed by a swift departure before the police caught up with him. Coming back before the snap election on 29 November would give Junts supporters a rallying point, while waiting until afterwards would help him to reach beyond the party’s traditional base and reconnect with a Catalan society whose priorities have changed.
There is little to suggest that Puigdemont’s political views have shifted. He faces the challenge of not only reviving the independence movement but finding a place for it in a Catalonia that has changed since 2017. If he is to lead a new chapter for the cause, he will have to show how it speaks to Catalans today – not just to the ambitions that defined their identity almost a decade ago.
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