Eye-opening revelations this past week have solidified my personal fears about the year ahead: As a nation and as a globe, we're facing a record number of wild risks that are way outside our control.
- My growing hunch about this scenario has been bolstered by daily conversations with CEOs, government insiders and top investors.
Why it matters: It feels likely — not certain — that between now and 2028, we'll face society-level disruptions, possibly including cyberattacks and fast-twitch economic shocks.
What we're facing: We've navigated single-shot crises like the financial meltdown of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020. This next year will be different. The real risk is a chain reaction: One shock sets off others — faster than we can process, and caused by AI dynamics we don't fully understand.
- Call it chain-reaction chaos.
- And that's against the backdrop of this age of post-processable velocity: The speed of change exceeds the ability of any individual, company, market or government to fully absorb, understand and respond.
The reason this scenario looks so likely is that so many obvious risks, all with relatively high probabilities, keep piling up. Any one of them will rock already highly volatile markets and politics:
- Cyber chaos. This past week was a big flashing siren. AI-detected flaws in PHP, the code behind millions of websites, knocked government sites offline worldwide and prompted the National Security Agency to warn organizations to patch immediately or go dark. Major banks found unauthorized AI agents inside customer accounts, some trying to take actions customers never asked for. And Anthropic's deputy chief information security officer, Jason Clinton, warned that as bad as the past several days had been, cyber threats will get "a lot worse before they get better." Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff quickly agreed, writing on X: "Code red." As Madison Mills reported for Axios, the AI companies and the banks are scrambling for "day after" planning, fully anticipating a bigger cyber hit in coming months. People at top AI companies tell me the chances are far north of 50%.
- AI bubble bursts (partially). This doesn't feel like 1999, since giant companies with huge balance sheets are underwriting the AI boom. But that's also the problem. They're increasingly doing it with borrowed money: Goldman Sachs expects about a third of Big Tech's AI capital expenditure to be debt-financed this year. A bubble doesn't need to burst spectacularly to cause widespread economic and political pain. These companies are deeply intertwined, investing in, selling to and buying from each other. Look what happened with Meta this past week: It crushed its earnings, but then spooked the market by detailing the difficulties of raising capital to fund AI. Any sign of overbuilding … or companies underusing AI … or China catching up … or AI prices collapsing … or credit costs spiking … or the political backlash intensifying, and markets could tumble fast. A sharp correction feels like a 50%+ scenario in the short term.
- AI hits true RSI. AI could get better, faster than almost anyone anticipates via recursive self-improvement (RSI). People inside Anthropic, OpenAI and Google see this unfolding now. This could be awesome long-term if we steer the technology smartly. But it could also prove wildly disruptive in 2027: More advanced AI would pose a more urgent threat to industries, companies and jobs. You could easily see this enticing Democrats to join Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in demanding a slowdown or full pause, which would rattle markets.
- War expands, oil spikes. President Trump's aides believe he's likely to resume the Iran war postelection. The Iranians warn they would expand their targets in retaliation. The U.S. reduced staffing at embassies throughout the Middle East amid increased threats. Escalation feels more likely than not at the very moment oil supplies are tight and gas and diesel prices are very high. Imagine the economic pain of sustained $120-a-barrel oil.
- An aging, unrestrained president. I want to be clear here: This isn't a political statement or Trump health appraisal. I'd write the same for Joe Biden. It's a simple, fact-based observation based on actuarial tables. Trump, age 80, heads into the next two years as the oldest person ever to be president. It's a medical certainty that the chances of mental decline and incapacitation rise dramatically in your 80s. Trump is much like Biden in that he doesn't have people around him who can level with him. The risk stretches from health episodes to judgments about war and the limits of presidential power.
What you can do: I spell this out not to scare you or cause you to throw up your hands and retreat from reality.
- You can only make wise decisions for your career, your life and your family if you're living in the future — understanding what's coming, and living these historic times with your head in the game.
- The expert journalists of Axios are working hour by hour to be your clinical, useful guide to this head-spinning era.
Three very practical steps:
- Be aware: This is an exciting time to be alive. So learn about AI — the good, bad and ugly. And think more deeply about what you expect from your employer and elected representatives.
- Be vigilant: This past week's Axios reporting about AI agents showed the importance of locking down your passwords. Put every account in a secure password manager with a unique password. Use passkeys where offered. Protect your email and phone with an authenticator app, since whoever controls those can reset everything else. And don't hand a password or login code to anyone who contacts you, human or AI agent.
- Be ready: This past week also showed how AI is the market. So if you have a 401(k) or other investments, make sure to understand how concentrated you are in different sectors. Seek out smart diversification strategies. And find a few news sources, like Axios, that you can trust to make sense of all the craziness.
The bottom line: It's easy to argue any one of these risks won't materialize. But when you add up this many, the overall chance of a crisis outside our direct control is spiking by the day.