Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as UKMTO Says Most Ship Attacks Go Unreported

Conflicting traffic figures and competing claims of control are making it increasingly difficult to establish what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz, even as attacks on merchant shipping intensify.

The true extent of attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear, with a new report from UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) acknowledging that most vessels struck in the region are not reporting incidents directly to the maritime security organization.

The admission comes as the United States and Iran offer sharply different accounts of who controls the vital waterway, while conflicting transit figures raise further questions about how much commercial shipping has actually recovered.

In its weekly overview published Friday, UKMTO said it is struggling to establish the true number of attacks because the majority of vessels targeted are refusing to submit reports.

UKMTO said it is aware of additional incidents through other sources but cannot include them in its reporting without sufficient verification.

The disclosure raises questions about the reliability of publicly available attack statistics, particularly following a sharp escalation in strikes against commercial vessels over the past two weeks.

UKMTO recorded 12 attacks during its latest reporting period, including 10 in the Strait of Hormuz, one in the Arabian Gulf and one in the Gulf of Oman. Six vessels continued their voyages or reached port, two were disabled or left not under command, and three had unconfirmed damage or outcomes. One vessel, the Singapore-flagged containership GFS Pride, was lost after being struck by a projectile.

The report also found that 55 of 74 documented projectile strikes since July 6 occurred along the southern route through the strait, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the reported attacks.

The findings stand in contrast to increasingly confident statements from U.S. military officials about their control of the waterway.

In a video statement Friday, Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, said American forces and regional partners remain firmly in control of the strait despite continued Iranian attacks.

“Let me be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran. And it remains open for business,” Cooper said.

He reported that approximately 400 merchant ships had transited the strait over the preceding seven days, while U.S. forces helped Gulf partners move more than 100 million barrels of crude oil during the same period. Cooper said those shipments added to more than 1.3 billion barrels of crude transported with U.S. assistance in recent months.

But the latest UKMTO figures paint a different picture.

For the seven days ending October 14, UKMTO recorded 254 combined transits, including 129 inbound and 125 outbound movements. That was down from 275 the previous week, with traffic remaining approximately 70% below pre-conflict levels.

Of those 254 movements, just 42 were observed through Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The remaining 212 were drawn from U.S.-reported facilitated transits, which include ships operating without broadcasting AIS.

UKMTO cautioned that the U.S.-supplied figures and associated totals cannot currently be independently verified.

Cooper did not specify the exact dates covered by his 400-transit figure, leaving open the possibility that the difference reflects separate reporting periods or counting methods. Nevertheless, the gap illustrates the difficulty of establishing a consistent picture of commercial traffic through the strait.

Iran, meanwhile, continues to dispute Washington’s account of control over the waterway. Iranian army chief Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami said Thursday that the strait would remain closed until the rights of the Iranian people were respected.

The latest Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) advisory, published October 15, describes both a northern Iranian-controlled route and a southern Omani corridor, while warning that ships operating with AIS switched on face an elevated risk of targeting and instructions to divert toward the Iranian route.

UKMTO’s latest report adds that most vessels broadcasting AIS continue to use the Iranian route, even as U.S.-facilitated traffic accounts for the majority of reported transits.

The competing accounts reflect the increasingly complicated security environment for merchant shipping. U.S. forces are facilitating substantial traffic through the strait, while Iran continues to demonstrate an ability to strike vessels, including those using the southern corridor.

And with UKMTO now acknowledging that most attacked vessels are not reporting incidents directly, even the growing number of documented strikes may offer only a partial picture of the dangers facing seafarers.