U.S. is taking in a lot of Canadians, immigration numbers up 142%

Drawing from recent data released by the White House that show immigration to the U.S. has fallen from almost every country except Canada, the non-profit civic group Build Canada is sounding the alarm on a potential brain drain from this country into the United States.

A social media post from a White House account on X shows legal immigration down this year from almost every corner of the Earth. Drop-off ranges from 16 per cent in Western Europe and 17 per cent in Southeast Asia to 89 per cent in central Africa and 99 per cent in central Asia.

The two countries bucking the trend are Mexico, where immigration numbers are up 17 per cent, and Canada, which has more than doubled its numbers, increasing 142 per cent. Or as Build Canada says in its post: “The U.S. is taking in Canadians. A lot of them.”

Pulling data from Statistics Canada and elsewhere, the group notes that 120,640 people left Canada last year, the highest number since records began in 1952. It adds that 34 per cent of immigrants with PhDs leave Canada within 25 years, compared to just 16 per cent of high school grads — the so-called “leaky bucket” problem. It also found that tech workers typically make 46 per cent more in the U.S. than in Canada.

The group warned that fewer rivals for U.S. green cards from the rest of the world will continue to make it easier for Canadians to head south, and that “those who go are mostly highly skilled and well paid.”

Lucy Hargreaves, co-founder and CEO of Build Canada, said in an interview that such numbers represent a serious problem. “It is this cohort of highly talented, highly educated Canadians who have the potential to be top earners who are going to the U.S. to work in high-growth industries, especially software grads, but also other professional services,” she said.

“We know that the wages that are on offer in the U.S. are significantly higher than Canada. The economy is growing much faster, and there is an incredible amount of opportunity, particularly if you are a young person in a field like technology, where there’s significant job opportunity and growth.”

Build Canada has been beating a drum for some time now about the brain drain, and it often comes down to a single factor: cash.

Hargreaves noted that salaries are generally higher in the U.S., while capital gains taxes are more lax. “Our income tax structure is also, generally speaking, quite uncompetitive with many states,” she said. “The tax brackets for top income earners kick in at a much lower income in Canada than they do in the U.S. And cost of living in major Canadian cities is incredibly expensive.”

She added: “It’s not necessarily one of those things individually, but it’s cumulatively, when they start doing the math. They think about the power of the U.S. dollar. They think about cost of living, and then they think about the taxes. When they add it all up, it just doesn’t make a lot of financial sense to stay in Canada for many of these people who have multiple opportunities.”

But the problem also offers a solution. A recent paper by Build Canada notes: “There are ample levers to be used to tackle this issue that remain un-deployed.”

The paper lists “bold policy choices” that include forgiveness of student loans, income-tax reform (or a deduction for specific high-demand jobs) and a five-year “founder’s tax break” for founders of newly incorporated Canadian-controlled private corporations.

“These are all ideas that we’ve talked about, and I think some combination of those would make a meaningful difference to this cohort, and would send a signal to those graduates and young Canadians that the government is listening and is being responsive to their needs and trying to put their best foot forward to encourage them to stay.”

The news isn’t all bad, however. Build Canada noted that skilled people from other countries who are shut out of the U.S. by its restrictive immigration policies could choose Canada instead. It also pointed out that the federal government has promised a visa fast track for U.S. workers, and $1.7 billion in funding to bring researchers north.

“I wouldn’t criticize that,” Hargreaves said. “I think you’ve got to give credit where credit is due, but I don’t think it solves the problem that we’re talking about here.”

Her focus is on keeping people in Canada rather than the expensive process of luring them back.

“Ultimately the thing that I think would be great for Canadians to really start wrapping their heads around is that when you lose a high volume of Canadians like that, particularly early in their careers … you almost don’t know what you’re losing, right?”

She added: “You’re losing people before they even really get started. And so I think the more we can have that conversation about brain drain and the potential future growth that we might be losing with those people, the more we can quantify that and start to measure it and really understand what’s on the table, I think Canadians would start to rally around tackling the problem more seriously.”

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here.