Chiefs Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Team Against Seahawks in Week 7

The Kansas City Chiefs have defied the odds en route to maintaining an undefeated record thus far, but the most pressing test of all awaits in prime time. On the Sunday Night Football stage, Kansas City steps onto Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks.

In addition to head coach Andy Reid's crew clashing with the defending Super Bowl champions, it's entering perhaps the NFL's most difficult environment to play as a visiting club. The cards are stacked against the Chiefs in this one, although there's certainly a path or two to victory in what could be an instant classic.

Let's break down how both sides match up and put a bow on this Week 7 preview with a confidence meter rating on a scale ranging from 1-10.

Chiefs' offense vs. Seahawks' defense

The Chiefs have their work cut out for them on offense in Week 7. There are no ifs, ands or buts about it. The team's strength now, running the football and generating chunk plays with former Seahawk Kenneth Walker III, clashes directly with one of football's premier defensive units.

Walker came into this week of play leading all running backs in yards per carry (6.27), explosive run clip (21.3%), rush yards over expected per attempt (2.35) and much more. He's been nothing short of phenomenal to this point, but facing a group that, per RBSDM, cedes the third-lowest rush EPA per play mark at -0.203. That's paired with a measly 33.3% success rate, also third.

If Kansas City can't experience the success it's grown accustomed to on the ground, it'd place more pressure on a shorthanded passing attack. Not only is wideout Rashee Rice missing Week 7, but right tackle Jaylon Moore (concussion protocol) is out and will be replaced by Joshua Ezeudu. The team is confident in Ezeudu's ability, but missing two starters and being without left tackle Josh Simmons and receiver Tyquan Thornton — both on injured reserve — is tough.

A quick passing game, similar to what the Chiefs showcased earlier this season, makes sense. The Seahawks' pass rush is lethal, although multiple defensive players are questionable for the weekend. According to TruMedia, only the Denver Broncos (33.3%) throw a higher share of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage than the visitors on Sunday (32.3%).

One of the simplest ways to help neutralize a scary defensive front and an elite coordinator can be simply getting the ball out fast. Considering that Seattle is in the top five in explosive play rate and series conversion rate allowed, all hands need to be on deck.

Chiefs' defense vs. Seahawks' offense

This is where things aren't nearly as daunting for the Chiefs. Spagnuolo's defense has fared well out of the gate, sitting third in EPA/play (-0.087) surrendered and coming off a four-sack showing against the Los Angeles Chargers after going without one for weeks. The legendary coordinator isn't blitzing as much as expected, but he's been amazing when letting the dogs hunt.

Accounting for wide receiver and reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba is an absolute must, but this year's Seattle passing attack isn't close to 2025's right now. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown for seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in five starts, also sporting a 77.4 passer rating and a 39.9% success rate that's the second-worst of his NFL tenure.

Getting back to the blitzing component, making Darnold uncomfortable could be the optimal avenue for the Chiefs. Via Pro Football Focus, the signal-caller owns a 9.0% turnover-worthy play rate and a 37.9 passer rating when under pressure. He's a shell of himself when things don't go as planned; disrupting his timing is critical.

Elsewhere, Seattle's lack of a ground game is hurting the team in a huge way. While Walker has blossomed in Kansas City, running back Zach Charbonnet has been on injured reserve all season and isn't quite ready to make his return for this one. The Seahawks' top three rushers, Emanuel Wilson, Jadarian Price and George Holani, have combined to average 3.55 yards per tote. Price is also currently on IR.

Jefe's Handiwork reveals that the Hawks are 30th in rushing EPA and dead last in late-down success rate. If a team can't put itself in good positions on early downs and isn't executing on the money downs, it makes life infinitely more difficult.

How special are the special teams?

After spending nearly a decade at Michigan, Jay Harbaugh is back in the NFL and has served as the Seahawks' special teams coordinator since 2024. In his three years in the club's STC role, his units have ranked sixth, eighth and 31st by PFF. This year's Seattle squad is seventh in average starting field position on offense and 17th on the other side of the ball.

Still doing the kicking duties is Jason Myers, who's 14-of-15 on extra points and 12-of-13 on field goals this campaign. Myers, 35, has been in town since 2019 and owns an 86.5% field goal conversion rate as a Seahawk. Michael Dickson, the punter, is averaging 42.4 net yards per boot and has landed 44.0% of his tries inside the opposing 20-yard line.

As far as returns are concerned, wide receivers Rashid Shaheed and Tory Horton are both held in high regard. Shaheed averages 27.3 yards per kick return and 9.8 yards per punt return.

TruMedia notes that the Seahawks are in the 94th percentile in special teams kicking EPA with 25.86, as well as the 90th percentile in overall special teams EPA with 18.29.

Chiefs Week 7 confidence meter: 5.4

If there was ever a week for the Chiefs' offense to sputter and finally succumb to a combination of injuries and limited personnel, this would be it. There may not be a more legitimate test than facing the Seahawks' defense in Seattle. Still, Walker's shown zero signs of slowing down and Mahomes is no stranger to creating some magic — even if the game plan isn't sexy.

Regarding the host team's offense, I'm not sold on anything outside of Smith-Njigba. The rushing attack remains a disaster for the Seahawks, and Darnold has turned into a pumpkin just in time for Halloween. This isn't to say Seattle can't snap out of its funk and achieve immense success here, but it doesn't seem super likely.

This game is essentially a coin flip, in my view, but something about the resolve of the 2026 Chiefs makes me want to give them a tad more benefit of the doubt. Expect a close contest, which in and of itself would be somewhat impressive, but it's difficult to predict Kansas City losing a contest until it actually happens at this point.

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