Bolsonaro heir could bring Brazil closer to Trump if elected president

Brazil's far-right political movement, known as "Bolsonarism", appeared dead in the water less than a year ago.

Former president Jair Bolsonaro, the movement's central figure, had just been found guilty of leading a coup attempt two years prior, and begun serving a 27-year sentence at federal police headquarters. 

But the movement saw a reversal of fortunes at elections at the start of October, with Bolsonaro's wife, two of his sons, and one of his brothers, winning seats in congressional races.

The family's biggest win could still be yet to come, though, as Bolsonaro's eldest son, Flávio, heads to a run-off against leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (known worldwide as Lula), after outperforming expectations in the first round on October 4. 

If he succeeds, Brazil will be the latest Latin American country to lean into a conservative wave that has swept the region since US President Donald Trump returned to office.

A jailed president

A former military paratrooper with a fondness for the brutal military dictatorship that ruled Brazil for 21 years to 1985, Jair Bolsonaro was once considered a "fringe figure" in politics.

He served in Congress for almost 30 years before enjoying a surge in popularity during the 2018 presidential election campaign, off the back of a massive corruption scandal involving the Workers' Party, for which Lula was jailed. 

Jair promised change, with policies such as tax cuts across the board, a crackdown on crime, and reducing government intervention in the economy. It was popular enough to unseat the Workers' Party, which had been in power for 15 years.

Deborah Barros Leal Farias, an associate professor at the University of NSW, said his success was an overlap of two key groups: those who liked Jair as a candidate, and those who wanted the Workers' Party out.

"A lot of people were tired; just wanting something that was different. You had a lot of people who were just willing to say, 'Let's give this a shot,'" she said.

Maintaining popularity once president proved more difficult, and in 2022, Jair lost his re-election bid to Lula, who finished his jail sentence in 2018.

Toward the end of his term, Jair and his close aides began drafting decrees to stay in power and a plot to assassinate the president-elect.

Neither the assassination plot, nor the draft decrees, were successfully executed, but in 2025, Jair was convicted for his involvement, and for inciting riots that occurred the week after Lula's 2023 inauguration.

The next generation

Jair might have been jailed, but the discontentment he once captured had not wavered.

Lula's approval rating was suffering over crime rates and cost of living, some of which could be attributed to excessive spending by the administration.

A large voting block entered the campaign season with one priority: anyone but Lula.

"Even though, for a while, those who loved Bolsonaro weren't as loud, the voice of those who do not want the Workers' Party remained constant," Dr Barros Leal Farias said.

The Bolsonaro clan saw an opportunity for a comeback in Flávio.

He is not without his own corruption allegations, but experts say Flávio pitching himself as an alternative to Lula, and a moderate version of his father, was potent enough for many to look past his previous scandals. 

"Lula's voters look at Bolsonaro's family and associate it with an attempted coup, [and] the behaviour around COVID during the pandemic … [ but] the same happens on the other side," political analyst Thiago de Aragão said. 

"Bolsonaro voters looking at Lula remember when he was arrested, and the corruption scandals.

"This gave very little margin of change from both sides."

The polarisation has left the presidential hopefuls fighting for a very small voting block ahead of the election: about 8 per cent of those who cast votes for now-eliminated candidates in the first round.

Those eliminated candidates were mostly right wing, Mr de Aragão said, meaning many would likely flow to Flávio.

Opinion polls published since the first round of the election suggest Flávio has held a narrow lead over Lula.

The Trump factor

The US has remained publicly neutral during democratic election cycles in Latin America since the Cold War ended.

But it has taken a more active stance in recent years, with Mr Trump publicly endorsing several allied right-wing candidates.

The Trump administration has stated its intention to revive an 1823 policy called the Monroe Doctrine to "restore American [US] pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere". 

"We want other nations to see us as their partner of first choice, and we will [through various means] discourage their collaboration with others," the document reads.

Mr Trump stopped just short of endorsing Flávio in the Brazilian election but has maintained close public ties with the Bolsonaros.

He met with Flávio at the White House in June and lauded the 45-year-old for his "big victory" of advancing to the runoff against Lula.

The election comes at a time when Brazil wrestles with whether to further align itself with China.

It's a shift many other countries in the region have already pursued as Latin America's so-called "pink tide" recedes and conservative leaders seek friendships with the US.

Dr Barros Leal Farias said a shift right appeared to be the "Zeitgeist" across Latin America. 

"In Latin America for the last 150 years at least, there's been this sense of some governments wanting to get closer to the US because they think that's going to be the best for their country, and others saying, 'No, if we want to really improve our country, we have to move away from the US.'

The conservative shift is something Flávio would continue for Brazil.

"[Brazil's] relationship … with China today is not a positive relationship … because Brazil is excessively dependant on China [absorbing agricultural exports]," Mr de Aragão said.

"What we will see is, Brazil more aligned with the US in terms of narratives, especially narratives against conceptual enemies, as long as China is not one of those."

Interference allegations

Ahead of the first round of voting, Lula and his allies warned of foreign interference in the election, pointing to tariffs, embassy closures, and an effort by Washington to send officials to Brazil to "discuss electoral integrity".

The US suspended consular services on October 2, citing security concerns, though Brazil's federal police said they had found no evidence of security threats.

Edinho Silva, president of Lula's Workers' Party, said the closures were "unprecedented" and made "no sense at all".

"It's one of Trump's ways of trying to influence Brazilian public opinion," he said.

The US Department of State has denied claims of election interference.

Lula's camp has also alleged Meta manipulated social media access to favour the Bolsonaro side, noting that some of its posts appeared without share buttons, suffered reduced reach or appeared without audio.

Meta employees acknowledged in internal communications that Lula's accounts were hindered, according to a report by Folha de S.Paulo.

But the social media giant said the technical issues cited in the report were already publicly known, and "any suggestion that Meta favours one side is false".