Artificial intelligence is now doing a lot of the heavy lifting for global trade. According to the International Monetary Fund, the AI boom has been a major engine of cross-border commerce, with China and India among its biggest beneficiaries.
IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro laid out the numbers on October 13, 2026, at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
The numbers behind the AI trade surge
Between 2023 and 2025, global trade grew 8.3%, according to Tenreyro. Over the same stretch, AI-related trade jumped 29%.
Tenreyro also offered a counterfactual. Without AI-related trade, overall trade growth would have been just 4.6%.
The gains have not been spread evenly. The IMF singled out China and India as countries benefiting most from the boom.
AI supply chains are concentrated in a small number of countries, mainly the US, China, and India. That concentration is what drives the winners list, and it is also what worries the IMF.
Georgieva: AI is propping up global growth
Tenreyro’s assessment followed remarks a day earlier from IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. On October 12, Georgieva said AI investment is helping sustain global GDP growth at around 3% for 2026.
The IMF expects AI to lift growth in advanced economies by 0.5–1 percentage points, while emerging markets are projected to see a boost of 0.2–0.8 percentage points.
India got an especially warm write-up. The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for the country to 7%, citing stronger domestic demand and AI-related developments.
A new chief economist and a crowded backdrop
Tenreyro is relatively new to the job. She became IMF chief economist in August 2026, after serving as a professor at the London School of Economics.
Her first annual meetings in the role were not exactly calm. The Bangkok gathering was overshadowed by energy shocks tied to conflicts in the Middle East.
What this means: concentration cuts both ways
The IMF flagged several specific risks. Among them are a potential market correction and cybersecurity threats, both of which could hit hard given how much growth now leans on AI.
Those risks land on top of a third concern: high global debt. The IMF recommended that governments work on reducing deficits and that central banks lean toward tighter monetary policy.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.