Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is in just his fourth NFL season. That's a bit surprising given how many ups and downs he has already had.
Stroud's career seems to be back on the upswing. He played a fantastic game last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, leading the Texans to a win. He was AFC Offensive Player of the Week with 312 yards and three touchdowns against a good Jaguars defense. Stroud led all quarterbacks in EPA (expected points added) per play in Week 6. He was the best quarterback in the NFL last week.
Even within this season, Stroud has had weeks in which he has looked bad and weeks in which he looked like a top quarterback. The Texans started 0-4 and while Stroud was far from the only reason for the losses, he and the Houston offense were very quiet in some of those games. But over the last three weeks, in which Houston has gone 2-1 to resuscitate their season, Stroud has been excellent.
All of the fluctuation doesn't make it easier for the Texans to figure out a contract extension for their quarterback. They reportedly made a strong offer this year, Stroud refused, and the price may be going up.
C.J. Stroud reportedly passed on a big extension
Stroud is still on his rookie deal, in part because he didn't take a big contract extension worth at least $50 million. In September, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler said the Texans were ready to extend Stroud on a deal "worth well above $50 million per year." Fowler reiterated that report this week, saying Stroud "saw a bigger picture" when he declined to sign the extension.
That gamble didn't look as great a few weeks ago. Stroud wasn't off to a terrible start, but his 167-yard game in a 19-17 loss to the Colts, a game in which the Texans had 93 yards through three quarters against a bad Indianapolis defense, was troubling.
But the past few games have reshaped the outlook on Stroud. Over the last three games Stroud is 71 of 99 for 921 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. That has been good for a 116.6 passer rating. The performance last week against the Jaguars was a high point, with Stroud spreading the ball around and making big plays with pinpoint passes.
The Texans have said that once the season started, they would not negotiate a contract with Stroud until the offseason. Maybe that gives Stroud more time to strengthen his case.
Stroud's future payday
Stroud has had an odd career, even though he has played just 52 games.
His rookie season was remarkable, as he won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. It was one of the best rookie seasons for a quarterback in league history, with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. Then Stroud's numbers dropped over the next two seasons, and a playoff meltdown with four interceptions in a loss to the Patriots made for an offseason of doubts if Stroud was a franchise quarterback and whether Houston should pay him.
Stroud didn't sound concerned. And he didn't the the Texans' offer over the offseason.
"I truly believe you get the contract by what you do on the field," Stroud said in late July, via ABC 13. "It doesn't matter what you say, what I say. It's about how you perform on the field, and if you're worthy of getting a contract and you deserve it, it'll happen for you."
There are two quarterbacks making $60 million per season: Patrick Mahomes at a little more than $63 million and Dak Prescott at $60 million. Six more are behind them at $55 million. Stroud clearly wants to be well within that tier and perhaps higher. The Texans have to be sure it's the right move because it's a major investment.
If Stroud continues to play like he has the past few weeks, the Texans might not have much choice. Which seemed to be Stroud's plan all along.