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Jeff Lebby and his squad make their way to Louisiana, as the No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs visit the No. 22 LSU Tigers on Saturday afternoon. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Mississippi State-LSU prediction and pick.
Mississippi State enters the game sitting at 4-1. They started the season with a 62-13 win over the ULM Warhawks in Week 1. They went on to secure quality wins over the Minnesota Golden Gophers (38-13), the South Carolina Gamecocks (41-34) and the then-No. 19 Missouri Tigers (31-24). However, their hot start cooled off when they lost to the then-No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide by a 56-23 score.
Meanwhile, LSU is 4-2 at the moment. They opened the season with a dominant 51-10 win over the Clemson Tigers. After a 45-14 blowout win over Louisiana Tech, they took a step back after falling 32-24 to the then-No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels. They bounced back with wins over No. 23 Texas A&M 35-6 and McNeese (63-14) before falling down to earth with a 35-34 upset loss to the Kentucky Wildcats.
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Mississippi State and LSU share a long history of playing against each other in football. The Tigers boast 78 wins over the Bulldogs’ 36 victories while they drew three times. The Tigers took the win back in September 2023, winning the game 41-14. LSU has won five of the last six contests dating back to 2018.
Mississippi State vs. LSU Odds
Mississippi State: +18 (-110)
LSU: -18 (-110)
Over: 56 (-110)
Under: 56 (-110)
Mississippi State vs. LSU Key Injuries
Mississippi State- WR Anthony Evans III (Probable), QB Kamario Taylor (Out), DL Trevion Williams (Out), OG Jamari Freeman (Questionable), WR Ayden Williams (Out), WR Bull Mitchell (Out)
LSU- TE Trey’Dez Green (Questionable), S Dashawn Spears (Out), RB Raycine Guillory Jr. (Questionable), WR Phillip Wright III (Out)
Mississippi State vs. LSU Betting Trends
- Under is 9-0 in Bulldogs last 9 games as a road favorite.
Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Bulldogs last 7 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in October.
- Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Keys to Mississippi State vs. LSU footballmatchup
Star quarterback Kamario Taylor won’t be available for the LSU contest on Saturday, via ESPN’s Pete Thamel. He continues to deal with a foot injury/turf toe that he suffered in the Missouri game on Sept. 26. He’s the SEC’s second-highest rated passer behind UGA’s Gunner Stockton. He has thrown for 1,450 yards and 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. Parker Puckett looks to take over the starting job, having completed eight out of 14 passes for 89 yards in limited action. Fluff Bothwell commands the run game with 74 rushes for 403 yards and three touchdowns. Anthony Evans III looks to be active in the passing game with 40 catches for 574 yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Sanfrisco Magee seeks his efficiency in the red zone with 16 receptions for 259 yards and five touchdowns to show for it.
Tyler Lockhart stands out as the star tackle on the Mississippi State defense. He has racked up 31 tackles and two sacks. Jaylen Smith follows suit with 28 tackles and an interception, while Jett Jefferson and Kelley Jones will be active in stopping big plays as they combined for 13 pass deflections so far this season. Mississippi State is 64th in defensive third down percentage, allowing opponents to convert 36.1% of the time. They also rank 113th in the FBS averaging 69.8 penalty yards per game.
The Tigers possess one of the best offenses in the country, shining as a fierce squad in Year 1 under Lane Kiffin so far. They rank fourth in the country with 524.8 yards per game, eighth in passing offense with 311 yards per game, 26th in rushing offense with 213.8 yards per game, and ninth in scoring offense with 42 points per contest. Sam Leavitt stands out with his dual threat talents at quarterback, throwing for 1,496 yards and 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions while rushing 60 times for 259 yards and seven touchdowns. Dilin Jones leads the run game with 110 carries to his name for 482 yards and five touchdowns. Winston Watkins Jr. leads receivers with 29 catches for 416 yards and two touchdowns, while Jackson Harris as 21 receptions for 371 yards and three touchdowns.
LSU also shines as an elite squad on the defensive side of the ball. They rank seventh in yards allowed with 250.8 yards per game, 30th in passing defense with 176.2 yards per game, fifth in rushing defense with 74.7 yards per game, and 32nd in scoring defense with 18.5 points per contest. TJ Dottery leads the unit with 40 tackles, three pass deflections and two forced fumbles. Princewill Umanmielen has been remarkable as a pass rusher with 26 tackles and eight sacks, while Jordan Ross has a pick-6 touchdown to his name with 14 tackles to go with it.
Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction and Pick
This matchup between Mississippi State and LSU stands out as an intriguing matchup. Mississippi State has done well to assert itself as one of the best squads in the country. However, they tend to suffer lapses on the defensive side of the ball, potentially leaving open opportunities for the explosive Tigers offense to capitalize on. Both offenses will be active throughout the day, but only one will emerge victorious. LSU gets the win in this one and covers, while the over also hits.
Final Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction and Pick: LSU -18 (-110) and over 56 (-110)
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