- Failure of truces and reactivation of the Russian siege against critical infrastructure
- Restrictions in military intelligence and cutting off the Starshield tactical network
- Collapse of basic services and humanitarian threat heading into winter
Ukraine is facing the onset of the winter period under unprecedented strategic vulnerability both on the frontlines and in the rear. Following the definitive failure of proposed energy truces and ceasefires, the US administration has imposed severe restrictions on the provision of tactical intelligence data and access to high-security military satellite communications.
This operational disconnection hampers the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to alert the civilian population prior to supersonic projectile impacts and reduces room for manoeuvre in trench-to-trench combat.
Reporting from Kramatorsk in northern Donetsk, journalist and contributor María Senovilla analyses the reality on the ground: bombardments targeting data centres, collapsing mobile coverage, and a systematic siege against water and electricity supplies in urban centres across the country.
Failure of truces and reactivation of the Russian siege against critical infrastructure
President Zelensky recently proposed two truce pathways to Moscow. What did they consist of, and what was Russia's response?
Both proposals directly responded to demands raised from Washington by Donald Trump's administration. The first consisted of an energy truce: Kyiv accepted the commitment that neither combatant would attack civilian utility infrastructure during the cold months to avoid leaving the population in darkness and without heating.
Nonetheless, on the very night the Ukrainian provision was formalised, Russia responded by bombing Kyiv's largest thermal power plant, marking the beginning of its winter attrition campaign.
Subsequently, Zelensky proposed a 60-day ceasefire intended to hold general presidential elections, another demand pushed by the United States. The Kremlin's response was to flatly dismiss the proposal, asserting it would not grant a single day of operational pause. Holding elections is unviable under martial law and amidst massive, daily air attacks across almost the entire territory.
The intensity of military operations in recent days resembles the siege experienced during the first weeks of the invasion, but now extended nationwide. It combines ballistic missile strikes with drones equipped with jet engines that are difficult to neutralise.
Likewise, in localities near the combat line in northern Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy, first-person view (FPV) tactical drones laden with explosives proliferate, targeting passers-by and civilian vehicles.
Restrictions in military intelligence and cutting off the Starshield tactical network
What direct impact on the ground do the limitations imposed by the United States on military intelligence and satellite communications have?
The consequences are felt in both citizen security and combat tactics. Historically, US intelligence warned several hours in advance when Russian forces were firing up their missile launchers, enabling air raid sirens to be activated and civilians to take shelter in refuges.
Following restrictions on this cooperation, incidents occur in cities like Kyiv where impacts happen before sirens even begin to sound, triggering severe social anxiety.
In communications, the restriction affects Starshield, the military and encrypted division developed within the Starlink satellite ecosystem. Unlike the open civil service Elon Musk made available to Ukraine, Starshield is managed under US government control for sensitive defence data.
The Ukrainian military uses this encrypted network to guide most of its tactical drones and coordinate trench-to-trench orders. Although the cutback does not nullify long-range operations on Russian soil, it severely penalises short- and medium-range manoeuvres on the front line.
Collapse of basic services and humanitarian threat heading into winter
The deterioration of critical infrastructure is spreading to major cities. How are these cuts in supplies and communications manifesting on the ground?
In active combat sectors such as Kramatorsk, restrictions are severe, stringing together periods of up to seven days without running water and entire days without electricity supply.
Added to this situation is a qualitative leap in target selection by Russian forces. Besides power and heat generation stations, attacks deliberately target data centres and mobile phone masts, causing the simultaneous failure of telephone signals and internet networks.
The loss of electric power paralyses pumping systems, extending the lack of running water to major cities like Kyiv, where citizens routinely resort to domestic heaters and pots for washing. With winter approaching and sub-zero temperatures arriving, the degradation of basic infrastructure threatens to unleash an extremely harsh humanitarian scenario.