Rece Davis expected to be the only voice backing No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss on Saturday, but the College GameDay host changed his prediction after ESPN’s Dan Wetzel and Pete Thamel both took the Tigers first.
Davis made his pick on the College GameDay Podcast. He’s forecasting a back-and-forth game in Oxford that ends with the Rebels holding off former Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons and the Tigers.
Why Rece Davis switched his pick
Davis came into the segment leaning toward Missouri (5-1, 2-1 SEC). That’s the same side ESPN analyst Greg McElroy took earlier this week.
“You guys have surprised me because I thought for sure I was going to be the only one to pick Missouri,” Davis said. “I’m going to change my mind a little bit. Not just because you guys took Missouri, but I was leaning Missouri. Austin Simmons’ revenge, running game, the whole thing.”
Davis also pointed to Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz, saying “a lot of times when Drink hits the mic, sometimes it doesn’t work out as well for the Tigers.”
His forecast echoes Sept. 26, when Missouri gave up a fourth-quarter lead in a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State.
“A back-and-forth game, up and down. Probably ends up much like Missouri’s last trip to the state of Mississippi,” Davis said. “I’ll say the Rebels hang on. I’ll be the one who says the home team wins it.”
Missouri’s top-10 history at stake
Missouri has rolled since that loss. The Tigers routed No. 8 Florida 45-17, giving Drinkwitz his first regular-season win over a top-10 team in 11 tries at Missouri, and then beat Texas A&M 27-6.
“If Missouri can do it, having a top-10 win because the Gators were top 10 at the time, they can win multiple games against top-10 teams for the first time since 1978,” Davis said.
That 1978 team shut out defending national champion Notre Dame 3-0 and beat No. 2 Nebraska 35-31.
Simmons lost Ole Miss’ starting job after a Week 2 ankle injury against Kentucky in 2025. At Missouri, the left-hander has thrown for 1,434 yards, 14 touchdowns and one interception, which is one yard fewer than Trinidad Chambliss has for the Rebels.
Tigers running back Jamal Roberts leads the SEC in rushing. He’ll face an Ole Miss run defense that ranks last in the conference at 176.4 yards allowed per game and 106th nationally in EPA per rush allowed.
“The Ole Miss defense hasn’t been what we thought it was going to be,” Davis said. “I remember talking to some people in the preseason, thinking this might be one of the best defensive fronts in college football. Maybe it’ll turn out to be, but so far we haven’t seen evidence of that.”
How can Ole Miss hang on?
Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1 SEC) counters with Chambliss, a Heisman Trophy contender who’s back for another season after he won an injunction against the NCAA, and running back Kewan Lacy, who began his career at Missouri.
“There’s also a little bit at stake here in the personal rivalry for Trinidad Chambliss, too. Maybe Kewan Lacy,” Davis said.
Lacy set Ole Miss’ single-season record with 1,567 rushing yards in 2025 and signed a deal to return to Oxford. Still, his health hangs over this week. A shoulder injury kept him out of the 52-28 loss at Florida, and he left last week’s 52-17 win at Vanderbilt after seven carries.
The Rebels’ offense ranks eighth nationally in success rate, while Missouri’s defense has allowed 23 points total across its last two games.
Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network, and the loser falls to 2-2 in SEC play.
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