Could Waitaki have three MPs?
While only one candidate can win the electorate seat, a second or even a third could make their way to Wellington as a list MP this year.
Incumbent MP Miles Anderson is hoping to keep the seat blue and earn a second term on November 7.
It has been held by National since the electorate was reinstated in 2008.
Mr Anderson is at 46 on the party’s list this year, out of 72 candidates, meaning it is unlikely he would return to parliament without winning the Waitaki seat.
Some good news for Mr Anderson is he was leading in the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union poll, which was unveiled earlier this month with 38% of the vote.
New Zealand First candidate Michael Laws came in at sixth on the party’s list and has a real chance of being elected even if he fails to win the seat.
In 2023, NZ First won just over 6% of the vote, giving them eight list MPs.
The party was polling between 8% and 12% according to the latest 1News Verian, RNZ-Reid Research and Taxpayers’ Union-Curia polls.
If these numbers were to hold steady, Mr Laws would return to parliament for the first time since 1996.
Labour candidate Damian O’Connor is already a list MP.
He dropped six spots on the party’s list from being 10th in 2023 to 16th this go around.
In 2023, Labour won just under 27% of the vote and were given 17 list MPs.
Labour was polling between 24% and 30% in the latest polls.
Depending on the final results and how many electorate seats they win, it could be touch and go for Mr O’Connor however a return to parliament as a list MP is a distinct possibility.
Opportunity Party candidate Helen Tait finds herself on the upper half of the list despite running for the party vote.
She sits at number 16, although if polling numbers prove accurate the party is hovering around 5% which would grant them about six list MPs.
Act New Zealand candidate Sean Beamish is also solely running for the party vote and is 45 out of 46 candidates on the Act list.
When Act announced its list, eight candidates wished to be on the list but not ranked and were listed in reverse alphabetical order by last name from 39 to 46.