Serbia's student list leads ruling party in new poll ahead of election

Serbia’s student-backed electoral list would win 44.5% of votes among decided voters, ahead of the ruling coalition led by Aleksandar Vucic at 42.7%, according to a poll published on October 20 by the New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM) research institute.

The telephone survey of 1,050 respondents was conducted from September 25 to October 5, ahead of parliamentary elections on October 25. The figures reflect the preferences of decided voters, not a projection of the election result, NSPM said.

The Socialist Party of Serbia list led by Ivica Dacic, currently part of the ruling coalition, would receive 2.9% of the vote, the European Serbia list led by Marinika Tepic and Zdravko Ponos 2.7%, and the Authentic Right list led by Milos Jovanovic 2.5% — all below the 3% threshold for entering parliament. Other lists collectively received 2% support.

A further 18.3% of respondents were undecided and excluded from the figures for declared voting preferences. Another 2.7% said they opposed the government but did not know which list they would support. Nearly 80% said they would definitely vote, while 13.3% said they probably would not.

NSPM said it would publish a separate election projection in the coming days, incorporating campaign developments and additional surveys of key voter groups, including young people, public-sector employees and pensioners.

The October 25 election is expected to pose the strongest electoral challenge yet to the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which has dominated politics for more than a decade. Vucic resigned as president in September to campaign as the ruling list’s candidate for prime minister under the banner “Aleksandar Vucic – United Serbia”.

The student-backed list, running as “Students Win”, emerged from nearly two years of anti-government protests triggered by the collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad in November 2024, which killed 16 people. Demonstrators initially demanded accountability for the disaster and the publication of contracts behind the station’s renovation, before broadening their demands to include early elections.

The list is headed by Ilija Srdanovic, a cardiologist and university professor who was little known by the public before the campaign began, and brings together academics, doctors, engineers and other public figures. Its programme focuses on institutional reform, judicial independence, anti-corruption measures and transparency in public procurement.

Student activists and their supporters have begun marching from towns across Serbia towards Belgrade, where they plan to hold a final rally on October 22, three days before the vote.

The campaign has been marred by concerns over unequal media access, pressure on public-sector employees, the use of state resources and possible electoral irregularities.

In a recent investigation by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN), former ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) activist Momčilo Marjanović claimed he had organised groups of men to intimidate voters and provoke violence at student protests. He said he had received hundreds of thousands of euros in cash from a local public official and SNS member in Novi Sad for these tasks. Serbia’s organised crime prosecutor’s office said it would investigate the allegations.

Concerns over media freedom have also intensified ahead of the vote. Ten prominent journalists at N1 resigned on October 16, citing what they described as authoritarian management and a shrinking space for independent reporting, amid changes in the leadership and ownership of media outlets critical of the government.

NSPM said it had hesitated to publish its findings because polling figures could create the impression of a normal electoral process. The institute argued that Serbia had fallen below the minimum threshold of electoral democracy, citing what it described as systemic shortcomings.