Arch Manning Could Make Surprising NFL Decision Amid Tough Season at Texas

Arch Manning came into the 2026 college football season with all eyes on him. Everybody expected a breakout and that the Longhorns quarterback would emerge as the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

So far, though, he's struggled to live up to the hype. Through six games heading into Saturday night's clash against Ole Miss, Manning has thrown for 1,295 yards and 11 touchdowns with five interceptions while completing 63.9% of his passes. He had already disappointed last year with 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns, and this season's been even worse.

The bigger concern, however, has been how he's performed in crucial moments late in games. Manning committed costly fourth-quarter turnovers in each of Texas' last two games against Oklahoma and Florida, both of which the team lost by just three points. The Longhorns' season and Manning's position as the starter potentially hinge on the next few weeks.

Now, Manning's NFL future has taken center stage. NFL insider Tom Pelissero reported that several high-ranking NFL executives believe that most of the top quarterback prospects won't enter the 2027 draft. With several other college quarterbacks suddenly emerging as legitimate prospects, including Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker and Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss, many believe Manning, along with Julian Sayin and Dante Moore, could return to college next season.

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Manning's 2026 season has raised questions about whether he's truly ready to make the jump to the professional level. If he finishes the season strong and leads Texas to the College Football Playoff, he could still be considered one of the top prospects available and enter the draft. If his struggles continue, though, another year of college could give him more time to improve his decision-making, handle pressure, and become a more consistent passer.

There's no guarantee that another season would automatically make Manning a better prospect. But it could help him turn in more reliable game tape. He still has all the physical tools that NFL teams look for in a franchise quarterback. But he needs to show he can lead a winning program consistently, and more importantly, not be the reason why they're losing games.

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The reality is that several of the QBs once expected to headline the 2027 NFL Draft have faced different setbacks. Manning has struggled with consistency and decision-making, while Moore is still recovering from a scary concussion, and Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm. That's created opportunities for other prospects to make their case and put pressure on the rest to make the decision whether they should return to college or try their luck in a quarterback-heavy draft.