Somalia's election commission has announced it will hold parliamentary and presidential polls in April and May next year, but critics say the decision will lead to more conflict in a deeply fragmented country facing a long-running Islamist insurgency.
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The election commission said on Thursday that parliamentary polls would be held on 15 April, followed by a presidential vote scheduled for 15 May.
In a statement, it said the vote to elect a president was in accordance with a rule “which stipulates that the president’s term of office is five years, beginning on the date the president is sworn into office”.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's second term, which began in 2022, ended in May this year, but his government declared a "transition period" through a constitutional amendment in May, despite an agreement with the opposition to hold elections.
Opposition parties boycotted that vote to amend the constitution and have rejected the changes since.
Mohamud has been trying to move Somalia towards party-based elections to replace a system based around clan elders. But his attempts have been opposed by regional leaders, who view them as a power grab.
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'No political agreement'
The government welcomed the polling date announcements as an "important stage... towards reinforcing the country's democratic system".
It called for all parties to engage with the process "in good faith" and peacefully.
But former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo said the unilateral election decision was a "dangerous threat to Somalia's statehood and future" and urged an agreement with all factions.
Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, another former president and opposition leader, said he had taken the constitutional reform programme adopted in March to the Somali courts and warned that a "contested [electoral] process could lead to parallel elections" and even "civil conflict".
For analyst Samira Gaid, there was "no political agreement to hold those elections".
She said the government was essentially made up of the capital Mogadishu and "two or three allied member states", and expressed concern over "conflict and more confrontation within the remaining federal member states".
"All the processes that the government is starting are leading to further fragmentation," she said.
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Insecurity
Mohamud's government has struggled to defeat the al Qaeda-allied militant group al Shabaab, which has been fighting Somalia's central government for two decades.
While the military – backed by an African Union peacekeeping mission AUSSOM – has pushed back the militants, al Shabaab still controls vast areas of the country and little progress has been made with organising elections beyond a few localised pockets.
Somalia also faces uncertainty regarding funding for AUSSOM. Although the United States initially said it would cut all funding by the end of 2026, it has since indicated the money will continue to flow for another year.
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In Mogadishu, there was heavy gunfire between rival political factions in June ahead of planned demonstrations against Mohamud's political changes.
The government also sent in troops to oust the head of South West State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, a dogged opponent of constitutional reform, in March.
Clashes between federal troops and forces allied to him have erupted sporadically since, including reports of fresh fighting on Thursday.
(with newswires)