2027 NFL Draft QB rankings: Arch Manning finally dethroned after mistake-filled loss appeared first on ClutchPoints. Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Coming into the 2026 college football season, Arch Manning was the consensus No. 1 quarterback on most NFL Draft boards. While Manning had an up-and-down 2025 season, his talent combined with a strong finish last fall gave many optimism that he would be able to build on that this year.
So far in 2026, it’s been more of the same for both Manning and this Texas offense. The highs have been very high for the former five-star quarterback, such as his touchdown drive to tie Saturday’s Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma at 24. But there are still too many lows, too many inconsistencies in his game at this point. As a result, he is no longer No. 1 on these lists.
Manning wasn’t the only one to see his stock drop over the weekend. Nico Iamaleava, who was rising up boards thanks to his strong start to the season, tore his ACL at the end of a rocky performance on Saturday against Oregon. He now has a long road back, that is likely going to take him out of the pre-draft process, and his stock has dropped out of the top 10 as a result.
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On the positive side of things, Drew Mestemaker had another excellent day to lead Oklahoma State to a big win over UCF, and Austin Simmons was impressive against a very talented Texas A&M defense. Trinidad Chambliss also had a big day against Vanderbilt to get back on track coming out of Ole Miss’ bye.
Which one of those three took Manning’s spot atop the NFL Draft QB rankings?
1. Drew Mestemker, Oklahoma State
Last week: 4
Mestemaker’s inexperience, going all the way back to the fact that he didn’t play quarterback in high school, held back his stock at the start of the year. But halfway through the 2026 campaign, he is the QB1 in this draft class and is a guy that every NFL team will have near the top of their boards at this point.
The North Texas transfer has shown that he can really do it all. He has a great arm that he isn’t afraid to use, as he is constantly pushing the ball down the field and generating explosive plays even to receivers who aren’t open. That aggressiveness naturally leads to some turnovers and some inconsistency, but it’s much easier to rein in an inexperienced quarterback like this than to get him to be more aggressive when he isn’t comfortable with that.
2. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
Last week: 2
Chambliss showed what he’s all about as a passer even in the rain on Saturday against Vanderbilt. The concern for shorter quarterbacks is usually accessing the middle of the field, but the Heisman contender has no such trouble and is an expert at using his feet to access throwing lanes in that area of the field. He has a stiffer test coming this weekend when Ole Miss takes on Missouri.
3. Arch Manning, Texas
Last week: 1
Manning is just a bit more of a project than expected at this point. He clearly has a good arm and can make all the throws when he’s feeling good, and he has excellent athleticism and pocket movement. He is already fairly comfortable working out of muddy pockets. All of these things are high-end NFL traits that not a lot of prospects have, which is what makes him so enticing.
But we’re almost 20 games into Manning’s evaluation as a prospect now, and the flaws continue to show up. His decision-making is erratic, and he routinely makes boneheaded plays like the pick-six he threw against Oklahoma. His accuracy and ball placement, while at times very good, is all over the place at other times. He fails to keep the offense on schedule a lot of the time because of an unwillingness to take the free yards on short throws on early downs.
Perhaps the most concerning trait for Manning is how slow he goes through his reads on pure progression plays. Too often, he gets stuck on one receiver waiting and hoping it comes open instead of going through the progression in a timely manner. That is to blame for a lot of the sacks that he takes.
Manning and this Texas offense faces another tough test on Saturday against Florida.
4. Darian Mensah, Miami (FL)
Last week: 3
It’s hard to evaluate Mensah when he isn’t really being challenged all that much. Miami has played a weak schedule and Mensah has mostly been working underneath, throwing to open receivers who do a lot of work after the catch. He is a very intriguing prospect as a point-guard style of quarterback, but it will be worth monitoring how he plays when the competition steps up in a few weeks.
5. C.J. Carr, Notre Dame
Last week: 7
Carr continues to play sound, solid ball for Notre Dame, but Saturday will be a big test. After beating up a Stanford defense that looked a lot like playing team on air, Carr will go on the road to Provo to take on another top 10 team in BYU. If he continues to take care of the football and play with the same poise that he has so far this year against inferior competition, Carr’s stock will continue to rise.
6. Austin Simmons, Missouri
Last week: 5
Simmons continues to impress with his great physical tools and elite arm strength, which allows him to access all areas of the field for this Missouri passing game. The nuances of playing quarterback, especially mentally, are still coming along for Simmons, but more experience for someone who hasn’t played a whole lot should help accelerate that development. He has another chance to prove it against a tricky defense on Saturday against Ole Miss.
7. Dante Moore, Oregon
Last week: 6
It remains to be seen whether Moore will play on Saturday against Nebraska, but it’s a good sign that he is already back at practice after suffering that brutal concussion against USC. If it’s not Moore, it will be interesting to see where Dan Lanning goes after Dylan Raiola was benched for Brock Thomas against UCLA.
8. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Last week: NR
Just when you’re out on Sellers, he reels you back in. The best version of the talented quarterback emerged in an upset win for South Carolina over Florida on Saturday, as Sellers finished 23-of-35 with 279 yards and five total touchdowns. His process is improving, and he’s starting to make better decisions with the football as a result. If the accuracy can remain consistent like it was for the most part on Saturday, Sellers will continue to rise.
9. Julian Sayin, Ohio State
Last week: 8
Sayin continues to be a polarizing player, and his draft profile is the classic rate sample of traits vs. production. The Ohio State star produces at a high level, and did again in a 45-16 win over Maryland. But his arm leaves a lot to be desired, hence why he is so low on this list and is susceptible to being passed by players like Sellers.
10. Jayden Maiava, USC
Last week: NR
Maiava is a very talented passer, and he has played some very good football over the last few weeks that have gotten him back into the top 10 here. When he has it rolling, he can make just about any throw on the field, and that is a major part of what is keeping USC in the College Football Playoff race. On Saturday in a win over Penn State, Maiava went into a hostile environment and finished 21-of-33 with 301 yards and three touchdowns with a 97.4 QBR.
There is still some inconsistency with Maiava, especially his accuracy, that gets frustrating at times. But games like Saturday will continue to help him move up.
Next five: CJ Bailey (NC State), Drake Lindsey (Minnesota), Brendan Sorsby, Nico Iamaleava (UCLA), Josh Hoover (Indiana)
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